Free fallin’
First, the usual disclaimer: Predicting where free agents will end up is an exercise in futility.
General managers — even the less-than-savvy ones — rarely reveal their honest intentions at this time of year, thus there are more myths, half-truths, and creative interpretations of facts floating around than you’ll find in one of Scott Boras’s “books” on his free agent clients.
But man, it is such a fun exercise in futility, and though we go into knowing we’ll likely be spectacularly wrong yet again, here’s our semi-educated guess as where many of this year’s marquee free agents will ultimately end up. Just spare me the embarrassment and don’t hold me to ’em three years from now, okay?
Mark Teixeira: There is one report this morning speculating that the Yankees’ acquisition of Nick Swisher (a shrewd low-risk, high-reward move) means that New York isn’t as eager to bid on the Angels’ slugging first baseman as everyone believes. I don’t buy it for a nanosecond. This strikes me as another case of Brian Cashman attempting to hide in the weeds before swooping down to get his man, just as he did with Johnny Damon after the 2005 season. As much as I want Teixeira to end up with the Red Sox — and as much as I believe the Red Sox sincerely covet him — I simply can’t convince myself that they are going to win a bidding war with the Yankees when — not if, when — it comes to that. He’ll end up in pinstripes, and the length and terms will be staggering.
CC Sabathia: Big ol’ Carsten Charles is going to have an interesting decision to make: Accept the ridiculously lucrative offer that the Yankees are all but admitting will be forthcoming (rumor has it the pitch will include free nachos for life at the new stadium) or take a little (or perhaps a lot) less cash while going to a place where he believes his quality of life will be more to his liking. Sabathia loves hitting — he batted .235 with a pair of homers in 51 at-bats this season — and would prefer to return to his native California, so logic suggests he’ll end up with Dodgers should they come up with a competitive offer. But the Yankees will not make it easy for him.
Manny Ramirez: While Scott Boras snickers in his lair at the Dodgers’ apparently underwhelming offer, ask yourself this: Can you think of one team that will even consider making the commitment to Ramirez — in terms of years, not annual salary — that he’s looking for? As long as Brian Cashman has clout, the closest Manny will get to being a Yankee is being on Hank Steinbrenner’s fantasy team. The Dodgers seem to be setting themselves up to finish second in the bidding. I suppose the Angels might fit if Teixeira leaves, but do they really want two incurable goofballs in the same outfield? The Giants, who have lots of money to spend, no offense to speak of, and a history of putting up with mercurial sluggers, might be a sleeper. But ultimately, the only team that I can even see considering giving Manny what he and Boras believe he is worth is the Mets, based mostly on Omar Minaya’s enduring MannyCrush.
Derek Lowe: Maybe it’s wishful thinking on the part of someone who always got a kick out of Lowe — and I will forever insist his performance on two days’ rest in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS is one of the most underrated clutch efforts in sports history — but honestly I do think he ends up back with the Red Sox. He never wanted to leave in the first place, and despite having Boras as an agent, I think he’ll ultimately return for significantly less loot than he could get elsewhere.
A.J. Burnett: To paraphrase the old adage, if you can’t beat him, sign him. Burnett, who went 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA in five starts versus the Yankees last season, will end up with a healthy chunk of the Steinbrenners’ cash after Sabathia signs elsewhere.
Kerry Wood: Kinda sad that the Cubs had to let go of one of their more popular and identifiable players — he should have been a lifer — but GM Jim Hendry’s thinking is probably prudent: Wood has been so riddled with injuries throughout his career that it would be foolhardy at this point to give him the three-year deal he covets. But after his successful transition to becoming a closer last season — he whiffed 84 in 66 1/3 innings, with a 1.08 WHIP — he’ll get that deal somewhere, possibly from the Tigers, though the Rangers also make sense.
Adam Dunn: I’ve always thought that despite his obvious limitations, his uncommon patience and beastly power would make him more appealing to the Red Sox than many other teams. But the fit just isn’t there this time around. Nationals GM Jim Bowden was running the Reds when Dunn was drafted, and Bowden loves bringing the old gang from Cincinnati to Washington. Let’s put Dunn with the Nats, too.
Pudge Rodriguez: Funny how the Yankees didn’t even feign interest in bringing him back — that’s how far he has fallen, both in terms of production and reputation. He’ll end up batting an empty .280 for a bottom-feeding team willing to overpay for a year just to add a recognizable name to the roster — like, say, the Nationals.
Ben Sheets: He’s very similar to Burnett in terms of talent and pure stuff, but he’s even more brittle. He could win 20 games next season or he could spend a few hours in Dr. James Andrews’s operating room, but either way he’s going to be paid handsomely for his promise rather than anything he has accomplished. The guess here is that the pitching-desperate Rangers will make the Texas native one extremely rich enigma.
Jason Giambi: He’ll return to the A’s, but sadly, the mustache will remain behind in New York. Word is he passed it along as a farewell gift to A-Rod, who sleeps with it under his pillow when Madonna isn’t wearing it.
Milton Bradley: Here’s hoping he returns to the Rangers, where he put up a league-leading OPS while significantly cutting back on the crazy.
Francisco Rodriguez: I don’t care that Minaya claims his interest is lukewarm right now — again, everyone is lying at this time of year. And though K-Rod’s declining stuff and strikeout rate suggest that his decline won’t be particularly subtle, Minaya strikes me as one of the few GMs who still puts stock in saves, and he’ll overpay to get the Mets the closer they desperately need.
Jason Varitek: I’m sure few will believe me since I broke out the hatchet in my “OT” column this week, but I honestly do hope he returns to the Red Sox in 2009 — and no, not as the bullpen catcher. Here’s the ideal situation in my mind: Varitek comes back to the Sox on a one-year deal at $8 million or so and splits time with a young catcher acquired in a trade. Texas’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia is apparently the preferred target, and I’ve almost — almost — convinced myself he’s worth Clay Buchholz. (The notion of dealing Michael Bowden for Gerald Laird is somewhat less appealing, however. Okay, it’s insane.) I still see the value in Varitek as a reasonably priced role player, and while Boras might be able to dupe some sucker GM into overpaying for Tek’s exaggerated intangibles, I do think he ends up back with the Sox — at Theo Epstein’s price.
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So there you have my best guesses. I admit that my picks were stacked toward the more prominent teams, despite my best efforts to think beyond the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, etc. Think you can do better? Let me know in the comments where you think the top free agents will land.
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