Fun with numbers

By Chad Finn

November 5, 2008

4 minutes to read

Not too long ago, my boss stopped by my desk and plunked down a book. “I hear you’re into this sort of thing,” he said.

The 2009 Bill James Handbook! Yes! (Jeterian fist-pump!) It’s Christmas for baseball nerds!

Okay, maybe not Christmas — that’s reserved for the day the crisp new “Baseball Prospectus” annual arrives. But it’s definitely another very cool holiday. Arbor Day, maybe.

Anyway, I’ve killed the last hour (or two . . . or three . . . did I mention I actually get paid for this?) perusing through the Handbook, and as always the gang at Baseball Info Solutions has dug up enough fascinating material to . . . well, fill a book. Which you should buy, of course, right after you finish devouring these appetizers . . .

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The first thing I always check out in the Handbook is the hitting and pitching projections for individual Red Sox players in the upcoming season. They’re not always accurate, but they are enjoyable. Here are a few Sox of note, and a couple other relevant names as well:

BATTERS
David Ortiz: .288 average, 37 homers, 119 RBIs, .966 OPS
Dustin Pedroia: .315, 15, 78, .848
Kevin Youkilis: .289, 23, 101, .879
Jason Bay: .280, 30, 102, .881
The Mummy: .238, 13, 52, .726
Jacoby Ellsbury: .302, 9, 53, .783
Mike Lowell: .277, 16, 75, .791
Manny Ramirez: .301, 34, 113, .955
Evan Longoria: .280, 37, 113, .892
Taylor Teagarden: .239, 25, 61, .772
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: .262, 11, 46, .773
Mark Teixeira: .299, 36, 121, .956.

PITCHERS
Josh Beckett: 13 wins, 8 losses, 3.57 ERA, 189 innings
Jon Lester: 12-11, 4.02, 212 innings
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 12-8, 3.58, 184 innings
Pedro Martinez: 9-5, 3.36 ERA, 120 innings
Jake Peavy: 14-8, 3.26, 202 innings
A.J. Burnett: 14-11, 3.62, 224 innings
Derek Lowe: 14-9, 3.60, 206 innings
Jonathan Papelbon: 41 saves, 2.01 ERA, 71 innings.

Comments: You have to like the projected big comeback season for Papi as well as significant progress as a sophomore for Ellsbury . . . Slight regression for Youk and Pedroia, but nothing to be concerned about. . . Lowell is penciled in for 128 games. The decline is underway . . . Odd numbers for Teagarden, the young, defensively excellent Texas catcher whom I’d prefer the Sox pursue rather than Saltalamacchia. Teagarden had six homers in 47 at-bats for the Rangers down the stretch . . . I suppose .238/.726 would qualify as a return to form for Varitek. Now, if only Scott Boras would whack $40 million off his salary demands, there might be a chance of him returning to Boston . . . Honestly, I don’t put much stock in these pitching projections; they always strike me as too conservative. Sometimes it seems like every decent starter is down for 12-14 wins. . . I’ll go on record: Lester’s ERA will be at least a run lower than projected, even though his big jump in innings this season is a concern going forward . . . Burnett, who opted out of his contract with the Blue Jays, is expected to be a workhorse next season. Not buying it here. He’s brittle when it’s not a contract year . . . No starter is projected to have more than 18 wins (Johan Santana).

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Other goodies:
Prince Fielder, the Brewers’ 24-year-old first baseman, tops James’s list of the top 25 young major league players for the second straight year: This is probably a classic case of “consider the source” since this report apparently originated with the New York Post, but there are rumors that the Brewers would consider trading their behemoth slugger this offseason. Given James’s opinion of Fielder and his status as a special adviser to the Sox, it’s fair to speculate that Theo Epstein might at least give Brewers GM Doug Melvin a call to check in on his availability, particularly if the Red Sox choose not to give Boras the stacks and stacks of loot he will demand for Teixeira.
The Red Sox are rated to have the 10th-most young talent in the majors, with the Minnesota Twins topping the list. Pedroia ranks as the sixth-best young player, Lester is the 16th (one spot ahead of Longoria, who should be much higher in my semi-informed opinion), and Ellsbury doesn’t crack the top 25. Mike Timlin was 2,409,900,848th, one spot behind Sean Casey.
In the “Fielding Bible” balloting, Derek Jeter got one vote at shortstop, Manny Ramirez got one vote in left field, and Jason Varitek finished 12th among catchers: Seems about right to me. I’m pretty sure an enraged Scott Boras just set his copy of the Handbook ablaze . . . with his finger.
Ellsbury rated as the ninth-best baserunner in the majors in ’08, while Mike Lowell was the sixth-worst. We’re not going to attempt to explain the formula here, but it’s worth noting that Colorado’s Matt Holliday, who stole a remarkable 28 bases in 30 attempts in ’08, came out as the third-best baserunner. Which is good, because given his alarming home/road splits, he’s going to have to sell himself as an all-around player rather than as a slugger if he ever leaves friendly Coors Field behind.
Jeter has the highest probability of reaching 3,000 hits at 93 percent: And 78 percent of his hits will be fisted singles to right field. Others of note: A-Rod (89 percent), Johnny Damon (38 percent), Manny (31 percent), Pedroia (7 percent).
A-Rod has a 49-percent chance at breaking the all-time home run record, and a 10-percent shot at 900 homers. Must . . . resist . . . Madonna . . . joke . . .
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As for today’s Completely Random Baseball Card:

His sales pitch might be even more ridiculous than the asking price, but I did love this line from Boras’s blather to Nick Cafardo on the intangible and defensive value of Varitek:
“Jason Varitek doesn’t learn pitching staffs. He goes there and teaches them.”
Did it dawn on you too? Boras isn’t really talking about Varitek there. He’s talking about Chuck Norris!
When the Boogeyman goes to sleep every night, he checks his closet for Jason Varitek . . .
Jason Varitek doesn’t read books. He stares them down until he gets the information he wants . . .
Jason Varitek does not sleep. He waits . . .