Boston Red Sox

October road

By Chad Finn

3 minutes to read

All the Red Sox know for sure about the postseason to come is that they will be one of the fortunate eight participants.

Beyond that, pretty much everything else remains unsettled with five games remaining in the regular season. Here are few details and possibilities to consider:

The Red Sox are unlikely to catch the Rays in the AL East. Tampa Bay holds a three-game lead with five to play, and they also hold the tiebreaker (in head to head play, Tampa beat the Sox in 10 of 18 meetings). Coolstandings.com gives the Rays a 98.3 percent chance of winning the division, which is as close to a lock as you can get. While Sox manager Terry Francona says he’s not abandoning their chances of winning a second straight division crown, he also has a history of focusing on the big picture and has indicated that the greater priority right now is getting his team rested and healthy and his starting pitching in order.

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The Sox are almost certain to play the Angels in the first round. Their only chance of avoiding the Rally Monkey in the ALDS is to overtake Tampa Bay in the AL East, setting up a first-round series with the AL Central champion, either Chicago or Minnesota. (The Sox and Rays can’t play in the ALDS because they are division rivals.)

The schedule is in the Angels’ hands. Los Angeles, at 97-60, owns a two-game advantage over the Rays (95-62) for the best record in the AL with five games to play. If the Angels maintain the league’s top mark, they will earn home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs while also having the option of choosing which of the two ALDS schedules they would prefer to play. (Just as the Rays would have the choice should they overtake the Angels.) Assuming the Angels are matched up with the Red Sox, the “A” schedule would look like this should they choose that option:

  • Game 1: Boston at LA, Thurs., Oct. 2
  • Game 2: Boston at LA, Fri., Oct. 3
  • Game 3: LA at Boston, Sun., Oct. 5
  • Game 4 LA at Boston, Mon. Oct. 6 (if necessary)
  • Game 5 Boston at LA, Weds. Oct. 8 (if necessary)

    While if they choose the “B” schedule, it would be set up this way:

  • Game 1: Boston at LA, Weds., Oct. 1
  • Game 2: Boston at LA: Fri., Oct. 3
  • Game 3: LA at Boston: Sun., Oct. 5
  • Game 4 LA at Boston, Mon. Oct. 6 (if necessary)
  • Game 5 Boston at LA, Weds. Oct. 8 (if necessary)

    It won’t be a simple decision for Mike Scioscia and the Angels’ braintrust. Should they choose the “A” schedule, the four-games-in-five-days setup means both teams would need a fourth starter, and there has been speculation that the Angels prefer this option because they believe their rotation has greater depth than Boston’s. Penciling in John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders as LA’s top three starters, a Game 4 matchup would probably pit either Jon Garland or Jered Weaver against Boston’s Tim Wakefield or Paul Byrd.

    The “B” schedule offers different benefits. With a day off between both Games 1 and 2 and Games 2 and 3, the teams would need just three starters, and it’s more likely that they’d be able to use their top relief pitchers in all three games if necessary. This setup might work better for the Red Sox, since they lack the overall bullpen depth of the Angels, but LA might also find it appealing since it would allow for extra rest for record-setting closer Francisco Rodriguez.

    Beckett-Lester-Matsuzaka? Not so fast. Though Jon Lester has had a steadier regular season than Josh Beckett, the conventional wisdom is that Beckett will be the Sox’ Game 1 starter, based on his outstanding track record in October. (Beckett is scheduled for his final start of the regular season Saturday. If the Angels choose the “A” schedule, Beckett would be on his normal rest for the Thursday opener.) He would then presumably be followed by Lester in Game 2 in LA and 18-game-winner Daisuke Matsuzaka in Game 3 at Fenway. But again, the choice isn’t that easy: While Lester has been lights-out at Fenway this season (10-1 with a 2.54 ERA), he’s just 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA on the road. Matsuzaka has been quite good at Fenway (9-2, 3.18) and otherworldly on the road (9-0, 2.37), so perhaps he will get the Game 2 nod, with Lester pitching the first game at Fenway.

    We’ll find out soon enough, but this much we do know: Terry Francona has some fascinating and crucial decisions to consider in the coming days. And the Angels will probably make a few of them for him.

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