Your Last Marathon Matters, but Not Really
If there is one thing that is predictable about running a marathon, it’s the lack of predictability that comes with each and every race.
COMMENTARY
If there is one thing that is predictable about running a marathon, it’s the lack of predictability that comes with each and every race.
As the date of the 2015 Boston Marathon readily approaches, one the more common questions I get asked is “how do you think you’ll do?’’ While I certainly know that I’ll be ready to start, providing a definitive answer to this question remains challenging. Yes, I have run 27 marathons to-date and have been preaparing to run my 28th, but if there is one thing I have learned is that very difficult to determine how you will perform on race day, based on the results of your last marathon.
For example, I most recently ran the Baystate Marathon in Lowell, Massachusetts this past October and ran a 3:10:54 and the prior April in Boston, I ran a 3:41:52; a difference of almost 31 minutes. Yes, these were two different courses, but in April 2013 in Boston I ran a 3:07:35 and a year prior to that in April 2012 in Boston I ran 3:48:34. Here I was running on the same course, but had a year-to-year differential of almost a 41 minutes (granted it was ridiculously hot in 2012). While these are some of my more extreme examples from over the years, it has not been uncommon for me to have swings of 10 to 15 minutes between races that I’ve run in six or 12 months span or time.
While I feel my experience from past marathons certainly matters, I also realize that it’s important that I not let it define my approach to a coming race. No matter how I have done in prior marathons, good or bad, what I have learned over time is that each and every single one is a unique proving ground and that no two race day experiences are ever the same.
Why is this so?
For starters, there is the weather. The conditions on race day can have a huge impact on how you perform. For example the blistering heat for Boston 2012 certainly got the best of me, as did the Nor’easter of 2007, but on the flipside, you can have absolutely beautiful weather and as a result run a great race.
You also have to take into account how you have trained. Again, some years you’re able to log all the necessary miles and get all your workouts in and at other times you’re not. For those of us living in Boston and throughout New England, this particular training season has been brutal due to all of the snow. As a result, many of us have been forced to modify our training regiments, which can also have a big impact.
Beyond training and race day weather, there is also your health and bodily condition. In my experience there have been some years when everything feels great and other years where I have been dealing with nagging injuries. For example, when I ran Chicago in 2013, I was nursing hamstring injury from the prior summer and I know for a fact that this had a big impact in terms of how I performed in that particular race.
With the above being said, when I look at all of the past marathons I have run and try to use them as a barometer for race day performance I’ve come to realize that it’s important to view each and every marathon is a unique event. A great past race is no guarantee that I will have a great future race. Conversely, a bad past race is no guarantee that I won’t have a great race in the future.
In the end, one of the amazing and most powerful elements that a marathon affords is the opportunity to consistently test and challenge ourselves. I’m not going to say that it’s not frustrating when I have a run what I feel is a great race and garnered what I feel is a blistering time, only to then add 10, 15 or even 30 minutes onto that time in a 6 to 12 month timespan. But to then work to comeback and shave that time off and redeem myself in a marathon that follows is also truly rewarding.
So yes, your last marathon does matter, but its value is in providing you with experience and perspective as race day approaches. However, I have also learned that one of the most important keys to determining race day success is to focus on the present. Consider what you have done to train and prepare for this moment, assess how your body feels currently and above all hope that for Monday, April 20, we’ll all be blessed with a forecast that reads: partly cloudy, 60 degrees, nice tail wind.
Thank You for Your Support
This year I am running in support of the Brigham and Women’s Hospital (BWH) Life. Giving. Breakthroughs. Boston Marathon team. Since 1998, BWH has raised more than $6.6 million through its marathon program, and I’m proud to be a part of helping to increase that number. To lend your support, please click here.
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