Is Game 4 a bigger must-win for the Celtics or Knicks? Here’s what history, analysts say.
The Celtics are seeking to become just the fifth team to win a series after losing the first two games at home in 26 instances since 1984.
The Celtics were able to steer clear of a dangerous 3-0 deficit in their Eastern Conference semifinals series against the Knicks, decisively winning Game 3 115-93.
With the Celtics now on the board in the series, it seems that the prevailing thought is that they’ve got the Knicks on their heels. As of Sunday afternoon, Boston is a -290 favorite (74.4 percent implied probability) to win the series, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Basketball-Reference’s playoff probabilities tool views the series as a bit more of a toss-up, but it gives the Celtics a 52.1 percent chance to win the series.
History, on the other hand, doesn’t give the Celtics as favorable of view to win the series entering Monday’s Game 4. Teams that’ve entered Game 4 down 2-1 have only gone on to win the series 20 percent of the time in NBA history. Those teams that have won Game 4 after trailing 2-1 in the series have still only gone on to win the series 35.4 percent of the time.
Teams that have fallen into a 3-1 hole have gone on to win the series just 13 times in 293 instances (4.4 percent). The last time a team came back from such a deficit outside of the 2020 COVID bubble was in 2016, when the Cavaliers did it in the NBA Finals.
Of course, the way the Celtics fell into a 2-0 deficit in this series was a bit more rare. They blew back-to-back 20-point leads at home in the first two games of the series, marking just the 26th time since 1984 that the home team has lost the first two games in a best-of-seven series.
Of the 11 teams that won Game 3 on the road after losing the first two games on the road, only four went on to win the series before this year (36.3 percent). Teams that lost the first two games at home before winning Game 3 and losing Game 4 didn’t win the series in the five previous instances since 1984.
However, history will be on the Celtics’ side in one specific way if they win Monday’s Game 4. Teams that lost Games 1 and 2 at home before winning Games 3 and 4 on the road have gone on to win the series four times in six instances since 1984. The 2017 Celtics were one of those four teams, taking down the Bulls in the first round that year after trailing 2-0.
That might be why a good portion of analysts believe that Game 4 is a bigger must-win for the Knicks than the Celtics.
“I think the momentum has shifted, but not completely. I think the Knicks still have a very, very good chance, but I think they can lose Game 4 and still win this series,” ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith said. “The Knicks will need to win Game 4 to win this series. I believe that if the Boston Celtics take both games in New York, it will seal the Knicks’ fate and the Knicks will lose this series. If the Knicks win Game 4, they can win this series.
“It’s a combination of [the Knicks’ history] along with the fact that Boston can get cold shooting the basketball.”
Fellow ESPN analyst Bob Myers agreed with Smith’s sentiment as he said was still predicting the Celtics to win the title before their Game 3 win on Saturday.
“They won and they won resoundingly. They started shooting the ball like they have all year,” Myers said. ” … It gave the Celtics life and you don’t give champions another chance. That Game 3 wasn’t even a game.”
It certainly seems like the Knicks might approach Monday’s Game 4 as a must-win scenario. Jalen Brunson lamented over the Knicks’ lack of urgency in Game 3 following their loss.
“I don’t think we came with the mindset of being satisfied, but I think it was just subconsciously satisfied being up 2-0,” Brunson admitted to reporters. “Just not the way we needed to approach the game.”
Knicks guard Josh Hart and forward Mikal Bridges agreed with Brunson’s assessment, with the former saying that New York should’ve “did a better job” at matching Boston’s urgency in Game 3.
Jaylen Brown, on the other hand, recognized that it’s a long series, but also realized that time was ticking on the Celtics to start winning games after Game 3.
“You have to beat us four times. That’s what it comes down to,” Brown told reporters. “Not twice, not once, not three times. You have to win four games. So it’s a lot of basketball to be played.”
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