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Where Celtics are better and worse from championship season ahead of playoffs
There are some things around the edges that are different about the 2024-25 Celtics than the 2023-24 Celtics.
Finally, after six months of regular-season basketball, the NBA playoffs are in sight.
The Celtics are set to embark on another postseason journey next weekend, seeking to become the first team in seven years to win back-to-back titles. In many ways, this year’s team is as good as the one that won it all last June. They clinched another 60-win season on Friday. Jayson Tatum is continuing to score at a high level, Jaylen Brown is still playing at a star level, and Derrick White continues his ascent as one of the game’s best two-way players.
While the nucleus and identity of the team remain the same, there are some things around the edges that are different about the 2024-25 Celtics than the 2023-24 Celtics. Those things could also be the difference between Boston winning another Larry O’Brien Trophy or falling short of its ultimate goal.
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So, let’s take a look at where the Celtics a better and worse compared to this point last year.
Better: Jayson Tatum’s playmaking
Tatum’s passing and playmaking abilities have undeniably gone up a level this season. He’s averaging roughly an assist more per game this season (6.0) than he did last year, giving him a new career high.
But Tatum’s impressive passing goes beyond just standard assists. He’s creating more opportunities for his teammates as well. He’s averaging 11.6 potential assists per game this season, which is second among all forwards. His 1.1 secondary assists are also second among all forwards, while his points created off assists per game (15.8) is third among forwards. Last season, Tatum averaged 8.9 potential assists, 1.0 secondary assists, and 13 points off assists per game.
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Tatum’s passing has gotten better as the season’s gone along, too. He’s averaging 12.1 potential assists per game to go with 8.5 adjusted assists per game, which leads all forwards, since the All-Star break.
Jaylen Brown has also made strides as a passer this season. He’s also averaging nearly a whole assist more per game this season (4.5) than last year (3.6). He’s dishing out 8.3 potential assists per game this year as well, up from 6.8 last season.
Worse: Jrue Holiday’s shooting
In his first year in Boston, Holiday waited to have his best scoring performances until the postseason arrived. He averaged 18.5 points per game in the Eastern Conference finals against the Pacers before putting up 14.4 points per game in the NBA Finals.
But there was some good reason to think that Holiday would shine with more field goal attempts last postseason. In the 2023-24 regular season, the veteran guard had shot 48 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from 3-point range, proving to be one of the more efficient shooters in the league.
There might not be the same optimism entering this postseason. Holiday’s shooting 44.3 percent from the field and 35.3 percent from distance. What’s most worrisome, though, is that Holiday’s corner 3-point shooting has cratered this year. After making 61.9 percent of his corner 3-pointers last year, Holiday has only made 30.2 percent of such shots this year while shooting more corner 3s.
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It might have been unrealistic to think that Holiday could shoot above 60 percent from the corner again this season, but the Celtics will likely need his number from the regular season this year to go up in the playoffs.
Worse: Starting five with Kristpas Porzingis healthy
The Celtics haven’t been at full health as much as they would’ve liked to have been in the regular season. In the games that they had all five members of their starting lineup healthy, though, their top unit didn’t play that well.
Boston’s five-man lineup of Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis averaged a -0.1 plus/minus in the 24 regular-season games they played together this season. That’s down from the 4.1 plus/minus the lineup had in the 2023-24 regular season and 4.0 plus/minus it had in the postseason.
The Celtics’ optimal starting lineup has been a bit better since Porzingis returned to the lineup following an illness in the middle of March. The unit has outscored its opponents by 2.8 points per game, but it was only a four-game sample size.
Better: Starting five with Al Horford in the lineup
Conversely, the starting lineup that the Celtics used for much of their postseason run last year due to Porzingis’s injuries has been their best lineup this year (minimum of 10 games played). Their lineup of White, Holiday, Brown, Tatum, and Al Horford is outscoring opponents by four points per game over 24 regular-season games this year.
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Even though that was the starting lineup the Celtics used in the final three rounds of the playoffs, that number is an improvement from last year’s regular season. That unit only outscored their opponents by an average of 0.6 points per game in the 2023-24 regular season before outscoring their opponents by an average of 4.3 points per game in the playoffs.
It’s unclear why the starting lineup with Horford instead of Porzingis has played better this season. Porzingis has averaged nearly identical stats across the board from this season to last year, with the only major differences being 2-point field goal percentage (down from 60.6 percent to 53.7 percent) and 3-point percentage (up from 37.5 percent to 41.2 percent).
Tatum, Brown, and White have each individually posted a better net rating with Horford than they have with Porzingis in two-man lineups this year as well, which could also be a credit to Horford’s defensive versatility.
Better: The bench
Payton Pritchard is a strong favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year, and reasonably so. He’s arguably become the league’s best bench scorer this year, averaging 14.1 points per game while shooting 47 percent of the field and 40.9 percent from distance.
However, Pritchard isn’t the only member of the Celtics’ bench crew who has been noticeably better this year. Luke Kornet is also arguably having a career year, averaging six points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 0.9 blocks per game, while his 15.2 net rating is the fifth-best mark in the league (min. 15 minutes per game).
Sam Hauser didn’t begin the season on a high note, dealing with back issues in the first couple of months of the year. But he’s been playing at the level Celtics fans have been accustomed to seeing him play at over the last couple of seasons since the start of December. He’s averaging 8.7 points per game while shooting 43.5 percent from 3-point range in his last 54 games, with his 10.1 net rating ranking 25th among players who’ve averaged at least 15 minutes per game.
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Those three players, along with Horford, have seamlessly fit in while playing alongside Tatum this year. Four of Boston’s 14 best two-man lineups (min. 40 games played together) have been Tatum playing next to one of those four aforementioned players.
In fact, Hornets coach Charles Lee, who as the Celtics’ top assistant last season, said that the bench is why he believes Boston is a better team this year than last.
“They were good last year, and I feel like they got even better this year,” Lee told reporters on Friday. “I think that the bench has gotten deeper. Seeing what Payton Pritchard’s been able to do this year, he adds so much to the team. Sam and Luke, those guys have really contributed a lot, too, and then your main guys have continued to get better.”
Worse: Health
It’s a good thing for the Celtics that their bench is playing better this year than last year, because they might need whatever they can get out of the unit.
While Boston was without Porzingis for all but seven games in its 19-game postseason run to a title last year, it might begin its postseason quest this year a bit compromised. Brown has dealt with a bone bruise in his right knee over the last month that has limited him. He reportedly got a painkilling injection in his knee to help try and heal the injury this past week.
Brown is expected to be ready for Game 1 of the first, according to ESPN. But his injury certainly isn’t ideal as he hasn’t been shy in sharing how the issue has bothered him as of late.
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Beyond Brown, the Celtics will enter the playoffs healthy. But Porzingis missed 40 games this year due to multiple ailments, including an illness. Hauser had the aforementioned back injury. Holiday played through an unusual mallet finger injury earlier in March.
You also have to consider that the Celtics have made deep postseason runs in each of the last three years, with Tatum, White, and Holiday continuing to play basketball last summer in the Olympics. So, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that fatigue could ultimately strike the Celtics as the playoffs wear on and potentially be their downfall in their quest to back-to-back.
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