Examining the Celtics’ odds of getting the No. 1 seed and shaping up potential first-round opponents
The Celtics' recent win streak has moved them within four games of the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
When the Celtics blew a 22-point lead and lost to the Cavaliers on Feb. 28, it appeared that their hopes of getting the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference vanished. They had fallen 7.5 games back of the Cavaliers for the top seed with just over a month of basketball left to be played.
Four weeks later, Boston has a pathway to getting the No. 1 seed. Cleveland has been cold since its 16-game winning streak ended on March 16, losing five of its last eight games. The Celtics, meanwhile, have gotten hot, winning their eighth game in a row on Saturday as their schedule has lightened up following a two-week homestand where they played a handful of contenders.
With Boston’s win in San Antonio, the Celtics are four games back of the Cavaliers for the No. 1 seed in the East entering Sunday. Both teams have eight games remaining, leaving the door ajar for Boston to still nab the No. 1 seed.
But how realistic is it for the Celtics to get the top seed in the East? It still appears to be a bit of a long shot. The Celtics only have a 2.9 percent chance of getting the No. 1 seed, according to Basketball-Reference. ESPN’s BPI doesn’t project the standings, but it projects the Cavaliers to finish the season with roughly 65 wins to the Celtics’ 61 victories.
The Celtic’s hopes of locking down the No. 1 seed rest on the remaining schedules of the two teams. The Cavaliers have the eighth-toughest remaining schedule in the league (.544 win percentage of remaining opponents), with seven of their eight games coming against teams holding a playoff or play-in spot. The Celtics have the second-easiest remaining schedule (.417 win percentage of remaining opponents), with four of their last eight games being against teams holding a playoff or play-in spot.
The easiest way for Boston to get the No. 1 seed would be to win at least five more games than Cleveland over the last two weeks of the season. If the Celtics win exactly four more games than the Cavaliers over the last two weeks of the season, though, things get a little murky. Because the two teams split their season series, the next tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed would be conference record. As of Sunday, the Cavaliers (38-9) have a 2.5-game edge over the Celtics (35-11) in that tiebreaker.
Of the remaining five games the Cavaliers have against Eastern Conference foes, four of them are against two of the top teams in the East. They face the Knicks and Pacers twice, with those teams battling for the East’s third seed. The Celtics also face the Knicks, but have three games left against the worst two teams in the East (Wizards and Hornets).
If the Celtics are able to catch up with the Cavaliers in both the standings and conference record, the next tiebreaker would be winning percentage against Eastern Conference playoff teams. Considering that the last two playoff spots won’t be determined until the play-in tournament, it’s unclear if those results would factor into that potential tiebreaker. As of Sunday, Cleveland has a slight edge against the other top eight seeds in the East, going 15-7 in such games to Boston’s 13-8.
Looking beyond the regular season and with it appearing likely that the Celtics will get the No. 2 seed in the East, Boston would play the winner of the 7/8 matchup of the play-in tournament in the first round. The Magic (36-39) and Hawks (35-38) hold the No. 7 and 8 seeds in the East, respectively, entering Sunday. They’re each 2.5 games ahead of the Bulls, who have won seven of their last 10, and Heat, who have won their last four games.
Even though the Bulls and Heat have surged up the standings, the Magic and Hawks appear to be the likely teams who’ll battle it out for the No. 7 seed in the play-in tournament. Orlando has an 83.2 percent chance and Atlanta has 81.2 percent odds of playing in that game, per Basketball-Reference.
The Hawks might be the tougher matchup between those two teams for the Celtics. Atlanta won the season series, taking both games in Boston. Defensive Player of the Year candidate Dyson Daniels proved to be a tough matchup for the Celtics in one of those games, getting six steals in the Nov. 12 matchup. Hawks star Trae Young struggled in the one loss (1 of 10 shooting) the Hawks had against the Celtics this season and didn’t play in one of the wins. However, he helped Atlanta take Boston to six games in the first-round matchup between the two teams in 2023.
It should be noted, though, that both of the Hawks’ wins over the Celtics came with budding star forward Jalen Johnson, who put up a triple-double in one of those games. He suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in late January.
As for the Magic, the Celtics are 1-1 against them this season, with their last regular-season matchup taking place in Orlando on April 9. In Boston’s loss to Orlando in December, the Celtics were without Jayson Tatum while Magic leading scorers Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner were sidelined. Tatum played in the Celtics’ win over the Magic in January, but Orlando was still without Wagner.
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