5 thoughts on the Celtics ahead of the NBA trade deadline
A few troubling patterns, some potential trade targets, and why it's not time to panic despite the prolonged slump.
For a little more than a month now, the Celtics have been playing inconsistent basketball.
They’re 12-10 since Dec. 19. They’ve lost six of their last 12 games. They’re just one game ahead of the third place Knicks, and they’ve compiled several troubling losses to teams that were either shorthanded or sub-.500 at the time.
It seems like this team, which dominated the regular-season last year before cruising to a franchise-best 16-3 playoff record and bringing virtually the entire team back, should somehow be able to flip a switch and snap out of this prolonged funk.
It hasn’t happened. And now, with the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline approaching, there’s less than a week left to see if there are any deals that can be made to give the Celtics a boost.
Here are five thoughts on what’s going on with the Celtics, and what moves may be helpful for them at the trade deadline.
The Celtics play slow and they don’t get a lot of easy buckets.
The Celtics are dead last in the NBA in fast break points (11.8 per game) and points in the paint (41.8). They’re also 24th in free-throw attempts (20.8 per game).
Fast break layups, paint touches, and free-throws are among the highest-percentage looks in the game. It doesn’t get much easier to put the ball in the hoop than those situations.
Only the Nuggets, Lakers, and Bucks have fewer drives per game (37.9) than the Celtics.
The Celtics’ offense is still among the most efficient in the league, but they’re doing it without getting much of the easy stuff and it’s making them very, very streaky.
They’re taking a league-high 48.6 threes per game. At 90.9 field-goals per game, the Celtics are the only team in the league who take a majority of their shot attempts from beyond the arc. When the shots are falling, they’re dominant. But, shooting at that volume opens them up to plenty of cold nights when they go cold from deep the rest of the offense often suffers.
On top of the lack of easy looks, they’re 25th in pace, which means they’re not getting as many offensive possessions to work with as other teams.
Weird things are happening in the clutch.
For statistical purposes, the NBA defines clutch time as the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime when the score is within five points.
The Celtics are 13-9 in such situations this season. They’re 20-6 in games that don’t involve clutch time.
Part of that is because they have defensive issues at the end of games. Boston’s overall defensive rating (109.5) is fifth-best in the league. The Celtics drop to 25th (119.3) in that category during clutch time.
It’s been a combination of things. Sometimes there have been mental lapses, sometimes the effort level has been inconsistent, and sometimes the Celtics just haven’t been able to get stops in key situations.
The Celtics were elite from start to finish defensively last year. This year, they’ve been shaky in close games. There are also a few things that have happened that seem to be uncharacteristic mistakes.
Boston’s only 5-second call of the season came at the end of their 120-119 win against the Pelicans when Derrick White held onto the ball too long. Jayson Tatum also missed a pair of clutch free throws that kept New Orleans alive. The Celtics were fortunate that CJ McCollum missed a bank shot at the buzzer, but they nearly gave that game away.
Jrue Holiday took responsibility for a pair of miscues at the end of the Celtics’ Jan. 18 loss to the Hawks. He turned the ball over on a bad pass towards Jaylen Brown after appearing to have an opportunity for a layup. He later fouled Trae Young who made the game tying free-throws.
On Wednesday, Houston’s Amen Thompson sank a game-winning floater after a defensive miscommunication between Jaylen Brown and Luke Kornet.
Bench scoring is an issue.
Payton Pritchard has been outstanding this season, averaging a career-best 14 points per game off the bench and shooting the three ball at a 41.7 percent clip.
Al Horford has been a bit more streaky scoring-wise than he has the last two seasons. That can happen when five of the seven shots (roughly 71 percent) you take per game are 3-pointers. He’s shooting 41 percent from the field-this season, which is lower than his 3-point percentage was last season. He also needs plenty of rest to stay fresh at age 38.
Then there’s Sam Hauser, who has missed nine games as he battles a lingering back issue. He’s shooting under 40 percent (38.6) for the first time in his career from 3-point range, and he has already missed more games this season than he has over the last two years combined.
After Hauser, the scoring options get real thin. Neemias Queta, Luke Kornet, and Xavier Tillman are bigs who need to be set up by others to score unless they’re grabbing offensive rebounds. Jaden Springer has shown flashes of being able to knock down threes recently, but his athleticism hasn’t translated to much offensive production. Jordan Walsh brings length, energy, and hustle on the defensive end, but he’s shooting 35 percent from the field.
Even with Pritchard’s success, the Celtics are 24th in minutes played by bench players and 26th in bench scoring. When the starters’ shots aren’t falling, there hasn’t been much offensive help off the bench.
What does this mean for the trade deadline?
The Celtics don’t need to change much. They won the title last year, and they’re still arguably the most talented team in the league. Any tweaks would probably be minor ones.
They could use either a wing that can create his own scoring opportunities to give Pritchard some help off the bench, or another big that could serve as insurance if Porzingis or Horford have to miss an extended amount of time.
USA Today’s Michael Scotto reported that the Celtics have expressed interest in trading for Guerschon Yabusele. The French forward who was originally drafted by the Celtics is experiencing a bit of a resurgence in his first NBA season since 2019. He’s averaging 10.4 points per game on 50.2 percent shooting from the field in a reseve role with the Sixers.
MassLive’s Brian Robb said New Orleans’s Javonte Green looked like an ideal trade taget during the close win against the Pelicans. The former Celtic is a 6-foot-5 guard, a capable defender, and a career 35.6 3-point shooter.
Last year, the Celtics reportedly had interest in acquiring Andre Drummond, but a deal never materialized.
Why it’s not time to hit the panic button just yet.
While the Celtics don’t look like the historically great version of themselves from last year, they’re still in a pretty solid spot for contention.
They have the fourth-best record in the league, and the teams ahead of them (OKC, Cleveland, Houston) have much less playoff experience.
Boston’s starters have been relatively healthy lately, and Kristaps Porzingis seems to be close to full strength for the first time all season.
The Celtics are in the top-5 for offensive rating (3rd), defensive rating (5th), and net rating (third). They were either first or second in each category last year, so there has been some slippage. But, 23 of the 40 teams that finished in the top-4 for net rating over the past decade went on to make at least the Conference Finals. The NBA champion finished in the top-4 for net rating in eight of those ten years.
So, the ingredients for a lengthy playoff run appear to be there. There just seem to be some nagging issues there, too.
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