How this season’s Celtics team stacks up to championship team at halfway mark
The Celtics haven't played well recently, but their record is only one win worse than what it was at this point last year.
The Celtics might be in the dog days of their run to defend their title.
After a sharp, 16-3, start to the season, Boston has hit some bumps since the beginning of December. It’s gone 10-9 in its last 19 games, losing to one of the league’s worst teams (Toronto), undermanned teams (Orlando), and in bizarre ways, like it did Saturday against Atlanta.
Still, the Celtics sit at 29-13 as the season just passes the midway mark. Boston is no longer the clear betting favorite to win the title, but it is a co-favorite (+255 odds at DraftKings) or holds the second-best odds at most sportsbooks.
As oddsmakers still remain bullish about the Celtics’ chances to repeat, let’s take a look at how this season’ take compares to last year’s team at around the same point in the season.
Offensive stats
2023-24 points per game: 120.4 (fourth in NBA)
2023-24 field goal percentage: 47.7 percent (13th in NBA)
2023-24 3-point percentage: 38 percent (seventh in NBA)
2023-24 free-throw percentage: 80.5 percent (eighth in NBA)
2023-24 assists per game: 25.4 (21st in NBA)
2023-24 turnovers per game: 12.7 (eighth in NBA)
2023-24 offensive rating: 120.3 (third in NBA)*
2024-25 points per game: 117.5 (fifth in NBA)
2024-25 field goal percentage: 45.7 percent (19th in NBA)
2024-25 3-point percentage: 36.2 percent (16th in NBA)
2024-25 free throw percentage: 79.3 percent (eighth in NBA)
2024-25 assists per game: 25.3 (tied for 17th in NBA)
2024-25 turnovers per game: 11.9 (first in NBA)
2024-25 offensive rating: 118.8 (third in NBA)
*All 2023-24 stats are through the first 42 games
The Celtics have seen a little bit of a decline from where they were offensively this time last season. They’re down across the board in each of the major stats, though their offense still remains one of the best in the league.
Still, just about every one of their top eight rotational players has seen a dip in efficiency this season compared to this point last year. Jayson Tatum is scoring slightly more points per game (27.7 this year, 26.9 last year), but his field goal percentage (45.9 percent this year; 47.2 percent last year) and 3-point percentage (35.8 percent this year; 36.7 percent last year) have decreased.
It’s a similar story for Jaylen Brown. His scoring is slightly up from where it was at this point last season (23.3 points per game this year; 23.1 points per game last year). However, his efficiency has taken a noticeable drop. He’s shooting 4.2 percent worse from the field this year (49.1 to 44.1) and four percent worse from 3-point range (36 to 32 percent).
The rest of the Celtics’ starting five is also shooting worse than they were at this point last season. While Derrick White’s scoring has gone up slightly (16.1 points per game to 16.2 points per game), his field goal percentage (47.2 to 43.5) and 3-point percentage (41.2 to 36.9) are both down. Jrue Holiday’s scoring (13.1 points per game to 11.7 points per game), field goal percentage (45.5 to 44.7), and 3-point percentage (41.8 to 34.4) are all down. Kristaps Porzingis’s scoring (19.1 points per game to 18.8 points per game) and field goal percentage (52.5 to 46.5) are down, though his 3-point shooting is up (33.6 percent to 38.1 percent) as he’s played in 13 fewer games than he did at this point last year.
Al Horford has seen his scoring slightly go up as he’s gotten more playing time due Porzingis’s extended absence earlier in the season (7.8 points per game to 8.5 points per game). But his field goal percentage (48.8 to 42.7) and 3-point percentage (41.2 to 36.9) are both down by several points. Sam Hauser’s scoring (8.2 points per game to 7.3 points per game), field goal percentage (44.3 to 41.6), and 3-point percentage (41.1 to 36.4) are all down from this point last season as he battled a back injury earlier in the year.
Payton Pritchard is the only member of the Celtics’ main eight-man rotation who has seen an increase in true shooting percentage this season. The Sixth Man of the Year favorite has nearly doubled his scoring output from where it was at this point last season (7.9 points per game to 14.6 points per game) while improving his field goal percentage (42.1 to 47.1) and 3-point percentage (37.4 to 41.7) in noticeable ways as he’s seen more playing time.
But Pritchard’s leap hasn’t been enough to offset the Celtics’ dip in multiple percentage point dip in field goal and 3-point shooting. Their drop in field goal percentage could be explained by the fact that they’re taking more 3-pointers this season. At this point last season, the Celtics took 43 3-pointers per game, accounting for 47.8 percent of their field goal attempts. This year, the Celtics are taking 49.1 3-pointers per game, accounting for 54 percent of their field goal attempts.
The Celtics are actually generating more open (closest defender 4-6 feet away) and wide open (closest defender at least 6 feet away) 3-pointers than they were last season, per NBA.com’s tracking data. But they’re missing slightly more on open shot attempts from deep (37.9 to 35.6 percent) and wide open shot attempts from beyond the arc (40.3 to 38.9).
If there is anything concerning about this Celtics’ offense this year compared to last year, it’s that they’ve gotten worse as this season’s gone along. They were second in the league in scoring (121.2 points per game) and offensive rating (121.5) at the end of November.
That wasn’t the case for last season’s Celtics. They improved after a strong first month of the season offensively, increasing their scoring by 4.1 points per game and offensive rating by 3.4 points from the end of November to the halfway point of the season.
Defensive stats
2023-24 opponent points per game: 110.7 (fourth in NBA)
2023-24 defensive rating: 110.6 (second in NBA)
2023-24 opponent field goal percentage: 45.1 percent (third in NBA)
2023-24 opponent 3-point percentage: 35.2 percent (seventh in NBA)
2023-24 steals per game: 6.4 (29th in NBA)
2023-24 blocks per game: 6.3 (second in NBA)
2024-25 opponent points per game: 108.6 (sixth in NBA)
2024-25 defensive rating: 109.8 (fifth in NBA)
2024-25 opponent field goal percentage: 45.3 percent (sixth in NBA)
2024-25 opponent 3-point percentage: 36.3 percent (seventh in NBA)
2024-25 steals per game: 7.6 (25th in NBA)
2024-25 blocks per game: 5.7 (sixth in NBA)
While the Celtics have gotten worse offensively over the last couple of months, they’ve actually seen an improvement in their defensive play to nearly put it on par with last year’s team.
Porzingis’s return to the lineup might actually play a role in that. Boston wasn’t stellar protecting the rim in the first month of the year, allowing opponents to shoot 68 percent in the restricted area through the end of November. Since Dec. 1, Boston’s opponents have made 60.3 percent of their shots in the restricted area, which is the best mark in the league. At this point last year, Celtics opponents shot 63.5 percent from the restricted area.
Boston has also defended the mid-range better since Dec. 1 (opponents shooting 36.6 percent) than it did at this point last year (opponents shooting 42.9 percent). Boston’s opponents’ field goal percentage is also just 44.1 percent since Dec. 1, but its opponents’ 3-point percentage has gone up to 37.1 percent in that time.
Still, this Celtics team has seen improvement from their defense over the last couple of months as they actually got worse during this same stretch last year. Their defensive rating has improved by 1.2 points and their points allowed per game has gotten better by two points. Last year, their defensive rating dropped by 3.5 points and their points allowed per game got worse by 1.7 points between the end of the first month and the halfway point of the season.
Several players on the Celtics have seen their opponent field goal percentage fluctuate from last season to this year. But White has seen the best improvement in that regard. Opponents are shooting just 40.8 percent and 28.2 percent from deep when White is the closest defender this season, per NBA.com’s tracking data, improving by at least five percentage points in both marks from where he was at this point last season. He’s also averaging as many blocks (1.2) and nearly as many steals (0.9) as he did last season.
Overall team stats
2023-24 record: 32-10 (best in NBA)
2023-24 point differential: 9.7 (best in NBA)
2023-24 net rating: 9.8 (best in NBA)
2023-24 clutch record: 13-8 (seventh in NBA)
2024-25 record: 29-13 (third in NBA)
2024-25 point differential: 8.9 (third in NBA)
2024-25 net rating: 9.0 (third in NBA)
2024-25 clutch record: 12-8 (sixth in NBA)
The Celtics are only one win worse than they were last year, but it’s clear that they’ve established themselves as the third-best team in the NBA in the first half of the season. Both the Cavaliers and Thunder edge the Celtics in record, net rating, and point differential to this point.
After the way the Celtics lost on Saturday, some might point to their performance in the clutch this season as a reason why their record has dropped off. But their clutch record (defined by games within five points in the final minutes) is nearly identical.
The biggest difference, though, between this year and last year is that the Celtics really haven’t been fully healthy for any extended period of time. Their preferred starting lineup (White, Holiday, Brown, Tatum, Porzingis) has only played 11 games together. That group had played in 22 games at this point last season.
What should be more concerning is that the Celtics’ preferred starting lineup hasn’t played too well when they’ve been on the floor. They’re averaging minus-2.3 point differential over the 11 games they’ve played together this season. At this point last year, that number was at plus-5.1. They’ve made 45.1 percent of their shots (down from 52.1 percent at this point last year) and just 30.6 of their 3-pointers (down from 40.4 percent at this point last year) when they’ve played together this season.
So, it’s pretty clear that group has some things to figure out offensively. What’s interesting is when you replace Porzingis with Horford, the Celtics are averaging a plus-5.8 point differential this season. At this point last season, that group (White, Holiday, Brown, Tatum, Horford) was averaging a plus-1.1 point differential. But that wound up being the starting lineup the Celtics used for the majority of their postseason run with Porzingis injured en route to winning a title.
That’s not to suggest that the Celtics should bench Porzingis for Horford. It is intriguing to note, though, that despite the Celtics’ improvement on defense since Porzingis’s return, their preferred starting lineup has fallen well short of expectations to this point in the year.
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