What does history say about Payton Pritchard’s shot at 6th Man of the Year?
"Sixth Man of the Year worthy for me," Jayson Tatum told reporters Friday.
The NBA season is still in its early stages, but it’s safe to say Celtics guard Payton Pritchard has established himself as the favorite for Sixth Man of the Year.
He would be the second Celtics player in the last three years to claim the honor, after Malcolm Brogdon did so in 2022-23. Bill Walton and Kevin McHale are the only other Celtics to win the award.
Pritchard is averaging 15.6 points, 2.8 assists, and 2.8 rebounds while shooting 48.5 percent from the floor, 44 percent from 3-point range, and 87.5 percent from the line.
“Sixth Man of the Year worthy for me,” Jayson Tatum told reporters Friday.
Again, the calendar is just hitting December, but it’s never too early to look at his chances. Here’s how Pritchard’s stats stack up against past winners:
Winners over 42 years have averaged 15.6 points per game, with Ricky Pierce posting the highest average (23 PPG) in 1990. So yes, Pritchard’s average is exactly the average since the award began in 1983.
Out of those 44 winners, just five haven’t registered either three assists or three rebounds per game: Pierce (1990), John Starks (1997), Ben Gordon (2005), Lou Williams (2015), and Jamal Crawford (2016). That’s one area to monitor as the race intensifies late in the season.
Dell Curry’s season in 1994 is perhaps the best comparison for what Pritchard has done so far. Curry averaged 16.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists for the Hornets that year.
More recently, Eric Gordon put up 16.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per night with the Rockets in 2017. So yes, Pritchard is largely on par with past winners from a statistical standpoint.
Out of the 42 winners, 25 are guards, including 11 of the last 13. Naz Reid, who won last year, was the first center to do so since Roy Tarpley in 1988. Scorers who provide instant offense off the bench, like Williams and Crawford, have steadily had great success over the years.
How about team success? Do voters reward players who are on winning teams, or do they prefer those who rack up stats on bad teams?
The last five winners have all played on highly successful teams: Reid’s Timberwolves earned the No. 3 seed, Brogdon’s Celtics secured the No. 2 seed, Tyler Herro’s Heat locked up the No. 1 seed in 2022, Jordan Clarkson’s Jazz were the No. 1 seed in 2021, and Montrezl Harrell’s Clippers captured the No. 2 seed in 2020.
All this is nice, but how about the competition this year? As of late November, Pritchard has +140 odds to win the award. Buddy Hield of the Warriors (+700), Bennedict Mathurin of the Pacers (+1100), Ty Jerome of the Cavaliers (+1100), and Malik Monk of the Kings (+1400) are next. Here are their stats:
Hield: 15.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists
Mathurin: 17.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists
Jerome: 12.1 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists
Monk: 15.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists
So, Pritchard is very much in the mix. At the moment, it appears the fact that he’s playing on arguably the best team in the league is helping his chances. Ty Jerome’s scoring isn’t quite up to par, and Mathurin’s Pacers are currently in eighth place.
If Pritchard keeps producing at this pace, and the Celtics keep winning at this pace, history says he’ll be in a prime position to take it home.
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