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5 things the Celtics need to do to beat the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals
The Celtics might have more talent on paper, but Jimmy Butler and the Heat will be a tough out.
For the third time in four seasons, the Celtics will need to get past Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat if they want to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals.
Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals will begin on Wednesday night at TD Garden. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m.
The Celtics are arguably the most talented team on paper among the NBA’s final four teams. But the Heat have been tearing their opponents to shreds as a scrappy underdog.
The eighth seed entering the playoffs, the Heat bested the top-seeded Bucks in five games during the opening round before taking care of the Knicks over six matchups. Miami is just the second team in NBA history to reach the conference finals as an eight seed, joining the 1999 Knicks.
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Despite the disparity in the standings (and talent on the court), another rematch between the Celtics and Heat should once again be a back-and-forth battle.
Here are five things that the Celtics need to do to beat the Heat once again.
Paint defense (and patience) against Jimmy Butler
Yes, we’re not exactly breaking new ground here with Boston’s top objective: Slowing down the opposing team’s top player.
But it’s an endeavor easier said than done, especially against a scrappy veteran in Butler who always seems to elevate his game in the playoffs.
After averaging 22.9 points per game during the regular season, the 33-year-old forward is leading the NBA in postseason scoring (31.1 points per game). He dropped 56 points against the Bucks in Game 4 before adding another 42 in a series-clinching Game 5.
Boston is well aware of the damage Butler can do in a best-of-seven series. During the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, Butler averaged 25.6 points per contest, surpassing 40 points in both Games 1 and 6.
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“He plays with a spirit that a lot of you all see,” Jaylen Brown said of Butler on Tuesday. “He doesn’t back down. He doesn’t quit. He’s not afraid of nobody. And he can lead a group of guys to the Eastern Conference Finals. So we’ve got to be ready for that challenge.”
So how exactly do the Celtics slow down a player who seems to thrive under the bright lights of the playoffs?
Shutting things down in the paint might be the best course of action.
Even though Butler can pile on points in a hurry, he’s not exactly a prolific 3-point shooter. As noted by Nicole Yang of The Boston Globe, 50 percent of Butler’s points are generated in the paint, with another 26 percent coming at the free-throw line. Only 12 percent are the result of shots beyond the arc.
While players like Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart will likely get the first crack at slowing down Butler at the perimeter, both Robert Williams and Al Horford will need to be ready to intervene if the Heat star slashes toward the basket.
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But those defensive efforts inside will also need to account for Butler’s propensity to get to the charity stripe.
Whether it be driving hard to the rim or getting players to bite off of pump fakes down low, Butler is one of the best in the league as far as creating free-throw bids.
So far this postseason, Butler is averaging 10.1 free throws per game. Boston can’t dole out easy points off of ill-advised fouls against Miami.
As expected, the Heat’s franchise star isn’t lacking in confidence going into Game 1.
“This year is our year,” Butler said Tuesday, per WPLG Sports. “We’re going to go into this Game 1 and do what we’re supposed to do and be the first one to four. We’re very capable of it, we have enough, guys are playing incredible basketball. I like our chances, as does everyone else in this organization.”
Take care of the ball
This might be the most important facet of the game for the Celtics.
Look no further than last year’s ECF, a seven-game slugfest where Boston’s carelessness with the basketball spurred many extended runs for the Heat.
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During Boston’s four wins over the Heat in that series, the Celtics recorded 15 or fewer turnovers in each game.
In their three losses? 16, 23, and 17 turnovers.
Even though the Heat are missing tenacious defenders like P.J. Tucker (free agency) and Victor Oladipo (injury), Miami tends to attack ball carriers as a five-man unit on every possession.
After forcing opponents into 15.7 turnovers per game during the regular season, the Heat are generating 14.3 turnovers per contest in the playoffs, leading to 20.4 points off those miscues.
Boston’s turnover woes last spring against both the Heat and later the Warriors necessitated the need for Brad Stevens to go out and add another poised floor general like Malcolm Brogdon.
Still, the Celtics are going to need their stars — Brown and Jayson Tatum — to be ready for whatever the Heat throw at them in search of easy baskets.
“Just gotta be aware,” Brown said. “Offensive awareness has to be key, I think that’s something that we’ve all grown in and something that Joe has emphasized throughout the year. Just offensive awareness, being able to make reads, being able to see what teams are in, and being able to read it on the fly. We have to be highly aware of what coverages they’re in and play the game you know how.”
Bury their shots from deep
In case you haven’t been following the 2022-23 Celtics, they like to shoot 3-pointers.
A lot.
Under Joe Mazzulla, the Celtics’ offense lives (and dies) by their long-range shooting.
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During the regular season, the Celtics ranked second in the league in 3-point attempts (42.6), trailing only Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors (43.2).
That reliance on shots beyond the arc can lead to some serious variance in Boston’s scoring output, with some of the more frustrating postseason showings spurred by shots not falling the C’s way.
But don’t expect Mazzulla and the Celtics to slow down their volley from downtown.
In some respects, Boston’s 3-point barrage stands as an easy remedy against the suffocating zone defense that Erik Spoelstra and the Heat love to deploy.
Even though Boston has had fits trying to break through the Heat’s defensive structure, the scheme does have its faults.
In particular, Boston can make the Heat pay early and often if it can continue to drain shots from deep. The Celtics have no shortage of personnel capable of achieving that goal, while a return to form for Al Horford (4-for-21 from 3-point range in Games 4-7 against Philly) will be welcomed.
“I think I’m actually a great fit to play against a zone defense,” Brogdon said on Tuesday. “I penetrate, I make good decisions with the ball, and then I shoot the ball well. I think we have 5 or 6 of those guys on this team that can do that, so I think adding another one in myself is a huge plus.”
Boston can splinter at least some of Spoelstra’s game plan if they can consistently bury their 3-point shots. The challenge then comes with whatever adjustments Miami’s head coach cooks up.
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Even though Miami’s zone defense doesn’t make it easy to get to the paint, they routinely denied the Knicks easy looks from 3-point range in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
New York only hit at least 10 3-pointers in two of their six games against Miami.
Bench needs to step up
The Celtics relied on its tried-and-true core of Tatum, Brown, and Marcus Smart (22 points in Game 6) to carry them past the Sixers last round.
But against a cohesive Heat roster, Mazzulla can’t keep rolling with a seven-man rotation.
Boston might have the star talent capable of carrying the team in crunch time. But more members of the C’s supporting cast need to pull on the rope against Miami, especially on offense.
Even though 2022 Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro remains out (broken hand), the Heat are bolstered by steady contributions from other players like Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson.
Miami has relied on multiple players to get them to this point, rather than harping on Butler and Bam Adebayo to regularly bail them out.
Boston will be looking for more equilibrium from its bench unit in Round 3.
Even though Mazzulla noted on Tuesday that the Celtics will once again roll with the “double bigs” starting lineup for Game 1 on Wednesday, Derrick White should be called upon early and often.
White’s ability to push the pace offensively, sink shots, and pester opposing players on the perimeter should come in handy against the Heat. The guard is due to bounce back after being held to single-digit scoring totals in four of Boston’s seven games against the Sixers.
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Grant Williams might also be in line for a larger role against the Heat.
The 24-year-old forward was an unsung hero during Boston’s victory over the Heat last spring, averaging close to nine points per game while throwing his weight around against both Butler and Adebayo down low.
Williams struggled to earn consistent minutes against Philly, partly due to foul trouble. But if Williams can connect on a few shots and battle down low with a big body like Adebayo, he should be in line for more minutes.
Adjust on the fly
The next two weeks are going to be a chess match between the Celtics and Heat.
If Boston torches Miami’s zone defense, expect Spoelstra to augment his defensive structure to limit the C’s looks from deep.
If the Heat pick apart Boston’s double-bigs lineup and get Robert Williams in foul trouble, Mazzulla will need to carve out a large role for White.
“He does a great job throughout a series of finding small ways to adjust on both ends of the floor,” Mazzulla said of Spoelstra. “We have to bring an open mind. We have to be ready to stay connected and do some different things, which I thought was good for us in Games 6 and 7 against Philly. We have to take that same open-mindedness, connectivity, physicality into this series.”
The schemes and structures that we’ll see in Game 1 will likely be a thing of the past if this series goes six or seven games.
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It will fall on Mazzulla and the Celtics to make the right moves at critical junctures to put away a scrappy Miami squad.
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