The Celtics will hunt Trae Young: 7 things to watch as Celtics face Hawks
In a playoff series with several All-Stars, the Celtics have some notable advantages.
The Celtics are in the playoffs, and their first opponent is a new one: The Hawks, led by Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.
After facing familiar foes in Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Miami last year en route to the Finals, the Celtics will take on Atlanta to open their slate in 2023 for the first time since Al Horford and the Hawks bounced them from the postseason in 2016.
Here are seven things to watch as the series tips off.
The numbers favor Boston.
The Hawks thrive offensively and sacrifice their defense for reasons we will get to shortly, but the Celtics were significantly better on both ends this season. Per the NBA’s stats, the Celtics had the second-best offensive rating and the second-best defensive rating. By way of comparison, the Hawks are seventh in offense and 22nd in defense. The disparity on Cleaning the Glass – which filters out garbage time – is similar, with the Celtics fourth and third in offensive and defensive rating respectively, while the Hawks are ninth and 21st.
The numbers stay relatively steady since the All-Star break as well. The Celtics have the league’s best net rating, buoyed by the No. 5 offense and the No. 2 defense. The Hawks have the fourth-best offense and the No. 25 defense during that stretch.
For the Hawks, Young is the focal point. The 24-year-old averaged 26.2 points (14th in the NBA) and 10.2 assists (third in the NBA) during the regular season, and the Hawks were 6.8 points per 100 possessions better with Young on the floor. His usage rating, per Cleaning the Glass, was a 96th-percentile 37.0 percent, and it spiked to 43 percent against the Celtics. Any success the Hawks find will likely be driven by Young, who is the piston moving their engine.
The Celtics will likely use a number of defenders on Young, but Marcus Smart in particular is excited for the challenge.
“Any player that I go up against, especially one of the greatest players in this league, I’m definitely looking forward to it,” Smart told reporters Thursday after practice. “It’s a matchup as a defensive guy, going up against the best offensive players, it’s only going to make me better.”
Expect the Celtics to hunt Young mercilessly.
Hunting opponents has gotten the Celtics in trouble at times in the past, since it can devolve into an isolation-heavy offense full of your-turn-my-turn actions. The Celtics are at their best when the ball moves quickly and players move without it.
But for the Celtics’ offense, which doesn’t really have any individual weaknesses, a player like Young is a perfect pivot point. The Hawks have tried at times to hide Young on Derrick White, but White is far too canny – going directly at Young when he gets an opportunity 1-on-1, or running the Hawks star through pick-and-rolls to create havoc, or setting screens off the ball to involve Young in the action in a sneaky way. The Hawks have used Young on Malcolm Brogdon, which has disastrous potential too – Brogdon is an even more polished and muscular scorer than White. At times, the Hawks have tried Young against Sam Hauser, which didn’t work well either – Hauser moves far too much off the ball and shoots far too well for an inattentive defender like Young.
Even when Young does the right thing, he can be a liability. Watch here as he switches onto Jaylen Brown, coaxing Clint Capela out of the corner where Al Horford lurks. The Celtics don’t really have a bad option — Horford is open in one corner, White is open in the other, and Brown could try for a layup. Brown made the simplest (and best) play available, and the result was an open 3-pointer.
The Hawks have several solid defenders around Young, but the playoffs are all about matchups. In this series, the Hawks need Young on the floor for offense, but the Celtics will enthusiastically use their reliance on Young as an opportunity to exploit his defense.
The Hawks struggle to deal with this iteration of Jayson Tatum.
Young’s defense presents a significant issue for the Hawks, but several Celtics create problems as a whole – most notably Tatum, for whom the Hawks don’t really have an individual defender. De’Andre Hunter has played Tatum well in the past, but Tatum can get around Hunter when he’s aggressive off the bounce. Capela’s length can bother Tatum at the rim, but Tatum can make the Hawks pay with his passing if Capela becomes a help defender. Dejounte Murray is a good defender, but he’s too short and skinny for the Tatum matchup. John Collins is too slow-footed and doesn’t have a size or strength advantage against Tatum.
When he’s at his best this season, Tatum has turned into a new kind of superstar — a lethal slasher who finds great angles to the rim, bodies opponents out of the way and works his way to the free-throw line, all while patiently manipulating the defense with his passing and hitting a mostly respectable number of 3-pointers.
In other words, the Hawks need to figure out a way to defend Tatum as a team while taking into account the fact that Young will be on the floor for nearly 40 minutes per game.
Good look, Quin Snyder.
The Hawks are young.
Questions about Young’s future with the team hang over the Hawks at the moment, but they have an interesting young roster even without him. Onyeka Okongwu was billed as a Bam Adebayo-type big man entering the draft, and his mobile, active defense both on and off the ball can be disruptive. Jalen Johnson slid to 20th in the draft and struggled from three this year, but at 6-foot-9 with a good handle, great athleticism and long arms, the former 5-star recruit has shown flashes in recent weeks as the season wrapped up. AJ Griffin shot 39 percent from 3-point range this year. Saddiq Bey was an intriguing pick up for wing size and shooting. Murray is just now coming into his prime.
But with youth comes inexperience, and the Celtics have taken advantage of both Johnson and Griffin when they are on the floor this season. The Hawks’ defense is three points per 100 possessions better with Okongwu on the floor (second-best on the team behind Bey), but even his solid rim protection papers over roster-wide issues.
Young is only 24, so he fits the Hawks’ window if their youth develops into a promising fit alongside him. But even if Young’s relationship with Atlanta falls apart, there is a structure in place that could keep them relevant.
Against the Celtics, however, it’s unclear how much that young structure will help.
How big of an impact will Clint Capela have?
On the one hand, Capela’s size, length and athleticism make him a force – he’s third in the NBA at offensive rebounding, fourth in rebounding overall, and 23rd in blocked shots. The Celtics are at their best when Tatum can get downhill to the rim at will, but Capela complicates those forays to the basket significantly.
On the other hand, Capela – like most big men – doesn’t defend particularly well in space. The Celtics should be able to pull him out of the paint with their five-out looks involving Al Horford, and they should be able to largely match his length and athleticism with Robert Williams, who is yet to face Atlanta this season.
The big question for the Celtics might be the extent to which Capela can bother Tatum, but it might not end up mattering much.
Will Sam Hauser be an X-factor?
During the regular season, Hauser averaged 17.7 points per game against the Hawks and hit 68.8 percent of his triples on 8.3 attempts per game. Those numbers are inflated by the Celtics’ final game of the regular season (26 points, 8-for-14 from three), but the Hawks had a lot of issues with Hauser’s movement and floor spacing, and the Celtics generally have been very good when Hauser shoots well.
What’s our pick?
Celtics in 5.
Frankly, the Celtics should probably sweep this series, and if they do, it’s a good sign for their level of focus and engagement going forward. But we are willing to give Trae Young and Dejounte Murray one game of credit against a Celtics team that is superior in a number of crucial ways.
Game 1 tips off at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday.
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