These 4 stats help explain the Celtics’ season (and how far they can go)
The Celtics might have the statistical profile of a championship team.
The Celtics are officially done with the regular season and ready to start their playoff run.
How deep can they go in the postseason? Their statistical profile hints at a team that could make a run to the Finals, but like any contender, they will need a few things to break right.
Here, we take a look at four stats that help explain who the 2022-23 Celtics have been so far that could have massive ramifications for the postseason, including:
- Their league-best net rating
- Their reliance on 3-pointers
- How good they have been with Derrick White and Robert Williams
- How heavy the workload has been for Jayson Tatum
Let’s dive in.
6.7: The Celtics’ net rating
Explanation: Net rating is often a good predictor of which teams can make a deep playoff run. In technical terms, net rating is the difference between a team’s defensive and offensive ratings. In less math-y terms, it’s the number of points the Celtics score (per 100 possessions )minus the number of points the Celtics give up (per 100 possessions).
Analysis: The Celtics have the best net rating in the NBA. That’s a sign that they are who we think they are — a genuine contender to get out of the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics started the season posting historic (literally) offensive numbers while their defense struggled. That was a major departure from the previous season and pretty obviously unsustainable — Celtics shooters all got hot at the same time, and they sent shockwaves through the NBA. The defense simply didn’t need to play as hard and — as the Celtics beat opposing contenders by 20+ — it often didn’t.
Over the course of the year, the numbers leveled out – since the All-Star break, the Celtics are fifth in offensive rating and second in defensive rating. That’s a much more sustainable formula for success.
However, it should be noted 6.7 is a relatively low net rating for a team at the top of the league. By way of comparison, the 2007-08 Celtics – who stormed to the NBA title and demolished the Lakers in the Finals – had a net rating of +10.8. Last year’s Celtics team that made the Finals had a net rating of +7.4.
Further, net rating is a good indicator but not a perfect one – last year’s Suns, who bowed out in the second round, had the NBA’s best net rating. The Bucks won the championship in 2021 after recording the NBA’s fourth-best net rating.
So the Celtics’ net rating is a Rohrschach test of sorts. If you believe in this team, it’s a great sign. If you don’t, you explain it away with relative ease.
The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle – the Celtics are capable of winning an NBA championship, but they are not prohibitive favorites. They will need to play well – and catch a couple of breaks – along the way. In other words, they are like every NBA contender since Kevin Durant left Golden State.
48.0 – Percent of field-goals attempted (3-pointers)
Explanation: 48 percent of the Celtics’ shots are 3-pointers, and 52 percent are 2-pointers.
Analysis: The Celtics take a lot of threes — the second-most in the NBA. Only the Mavericks attempted a higher percentage of their shots from behind the arc.
For better or worse, the Celtics rely heavily on their deep shooting. They certainly aren’t the only team in the NBA’s upper echelon hoisting a ton of triples — the Bucks (the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference) and the Kings (the 3-seed in the Western Conference) are fourth and fifth in percentage of 3-pointers attempted.
But successful 3-point shooting is a very simple bellwether for how well the Celtics are playing. They attempt 42.4 3-pointers per game in wins, and 43.0 in losses — roughly the same amount. But in wins, the Celtics shot 40.3 percent from behind the arc during the regular season. In losses, they shot 31.6 percent.
The 3-pointer has served the Celtics relatively well. They shot 39 percent or better 38 times during the regular season, and they were 35-3 in those games. Move those goalposts up to 40 percent, and the Celtics are 31-1, with their lone loss coming in their bizarre game against the Jazz in Utah.
But the volume of 3-pointers helped created some high-variance outcomes too. The Celtics shot below 35 percent from three 32 times during the regular season. In those games, they were 13-19 with losses to teams like the Rockets, Thunder, Wizards and Magic (twice).
To steal an overused truism, the NBA is a make-or-miss league. The Celtics seem willing to bet they will make enough 3-pointers to win more often than they miss so many they lose.
That’s a decent wager when their defense is this good, but one can’t help but wonder what will happen if they go cold in a series like they did in December (32.7 percent from three, 8-6 overall) and January (35.4 percent from three, 10-5 overall).
+10.6: Lineups with Derrick White or Robert Williams on the floor
Explanation: Lineups with Derrick White on the floor outscored opponents by 10.6 points per 100 possessions per Cleaning the Glass, which is in the 96th percentile league-wide. Lineups with Robert Williams on the floor also outscored opponents by 10.6 points per 100 possessions.
Of note: With Williams or White on the floor, the Celtics’ net rating is comparable to the 2008 championship Celtics.
Analysis: Once again, these numbers show both this team’s promise and concerns.
When they have Robert Williams in the lineup, the Celtics are one of the best teams in the NBA. Lineups featuring Williams hold teams to 107.5 points per 100 possessions, which would be the NBA’s best defense by a wide margin. Offensively, they score a healthy 118.1 points per 100 possessions.
So what’s the problem? Williams’s availability. Due to a variety of ailments (and an abundance of caution), Williams has played just 35 games this season. The Celtics’ net rating with Williams off the floor is 5.9 which – again – suggests a team that is a contender but not necessarily a favorite. Can Williams stay healthy and productive for an entire playoff run? If so, the Celtics’ prospects brighten considerably.
White’s numbers, meanwhile, are tied to Williams. The two have shared the court for just 1,006 possessions (Tatum and Brown, by way of comparison, have played more than 3,300 possessions together), but they helped the Celtics outscore opponents by 14.5 points per 100 possessions during their shared time on the floor.
White seems to have taken Williams’s spot in the starting lineup which helps buy him minutes with Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon on the roster. White is also very durable — he played in every game during the regular season and seems to take pride in his availability. Expect White to continue starting for the Celtics, depending on matchups.
2,225 and 2,732 – Jayson Tatum’s total points and minutes this season
Explanation: You guys get this one.
Analysis: Again, pretty simple: Tatum — who is the first Celtic in team history to average 30 or more points per game — is first in the NBA in total points, and also sixth in total minutes played. He has been excellent this season, and the Celtics rode him hard en route to the 2-seed.
Last regular season, Tatum played 2,731 minutes — one minute fewer than this year. By the time the Finals rolled around, he was — by his own admission — exhausted. That’s why he hired a chef and spent the summer eating healthy.
“That was part of something I wanted to change from my experience in the Finals and my level of fatigue,” Tatum said. “I talked to my trainer and was like, ‘I want to eat better, I want to change my diet.’ I’ve never been on a diet, I’ve always been able to eat what I want, but I’m just trying to find ways to give myself an edge. Eating more consistently, eating better, losing body fat, trying to gain muscle. Getting a chef and having him prepare three meals a day.”
We should note that Tatum was also heavily taxed by a difficult run through the postseason that included a seven-game series apiece against the Bucks and Heat.
Still, Tatum played essentially the same number of minutes this regular season as he did last. Can a better diet and better preparation keep him fresh throughout a grueling playoff run? That remains to be seen, but he has played (and scored) a ton over the last two years.
The Celtics better hope all the extra veggies make a difference. They improved their bench depth significantly, but they will continue to need a lot out of Tatum to make a deep run.
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com