Celtics will face Heat or Hawks in the first round. Here’s how each team stacks up.
The Heat will host the Hawks in the play-in tournament on Tuesday.
The Celtics won’t know their first-round playoff opponent until Tuesday evening, but the possible options were narrowed down to two on Friday.
Boston’s win over Toronto, plus Brooklyn’s win over Orlando Friday night, allowed Miami to clinch the seventh spot and Atlanta to clinch the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference standings. That means the Heat will host the Hawks on Tuesday in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup, with the winner facing the Celtics, who clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference on Wednesday, in the first round.
Obviously, there’s prior playoff history between the Celtics and Heat. The two teams have met in the Eastern Conference finals in two of the last three seasons, including last season when the Celtics won in seven games. Miami got the upper hand in the 2020 Eastern Conference finals, winning that series in six games.
Just like their last two playoff series, the Celtics and Heat split their regular-season matchups this season. However, it should be noted that three of those games came prior to the change of the calendar year. The fourth matchup between the two teams might not be the best indicator for things to come in a possible Celtics-Heat series. The Celtics were without Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, and Malcolm Brogdon, while the Heat didn’t have Jimmy Butler in that matchup, which Miami won 98-95.
The Heat haven’t been as well-tailored this regular season compared to the last few seasons. Following a 53-win season last year that allowed them to hold the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Heat are 43-38 entering Sunday’s regular-season finale. Not only have the Heat taken a step back in the standings this season, but they’re also the only team in the top 10 of the Eastern Conference standings with a negative point differential. Opponents have outscored them by roughly half a point per game this season.
Miami has been a pretty middle-of-the-pack team since the All-Star break, too. They’ve gone 11-11 and rank 16th in offensive rating (115.3) and 22nd in defensive rating (117.5). But Butler has played at the level many Celtics fans have seen him play in the playoffs during that span, too. Butler’s scoring 25.6 points per game on an absurd 72.3 true shooting percentage, adding 5.9 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game over that time.
As for the Hawks, the Celtics have faced them twice so far this season (winning both matchups) and will play them in Boston in Sunday’s regular-season finale. Don’t expect Sunday’s game to be much of a potential playoff preview, though, as both teams have nothing to play for, likely meaning that key contributors on each side will sit out.
Boston’s offense was able to feast on Atlanta’s porous defense in the two games so far this season, which were nearly identical offensive outputs for the Celtics. In the game on March 11, the Celtics shot 54.7 percent from the field and made 20-of-42 3-pointers, committing just eight turnovers en route to a 134-125 win. In November, the Celtics made 54.5 percent of their shots and 21 3-pointers in a 126-101 win.
The Hawks made a big midseason move, but it wasn’t a trade. They swapped coaches, firing Nate McMillan and hiring Quin Snyder around the All-Star break. They’ve gone 12-10 under Snyder, continuing their dynamic offensive ways but still struggling defensively. They’re third in offensive rating (120.2) but tied for 23rd in defensive rating (118.0) since the break.
The Heat appear to have the early edge over the Hawks entering Tuesday’s matchup. They’ll have home court, plus they won three of the four matchups between the two teams earlier this season. In addition, the No. 7 seed has won all four games against the No. 8 seed in the short history of the play-in tournament.
Not only is the first play-in matchup set, but the other play-in matchup is also set, and the first six seeds have also been locked up. The Raptors will host the Bulls on Wednesday, with the winner of that game facing the loser of Tuesday’s Heat-Hawks game on Friday. The winner of that game will face the Bucks in the first round.
Elsewhere, the Sixers, locked into the No. 3 seed, will face the Nets, who clinched the No. 6 seed on Friday. If the Celtics win their first-round series, they’ll face the winner of that series in the second round.
Finally, the Cavaliers will take on the Knicks in the first round. Cleveland will have home-court advantage in that series as it has the No. 4 seed.
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