Examining possible Celtics first-round opponents with a week left in the regular season
There's a solid chance the Celtics will face a familiar foe or a division rival in the first round of the playoffs.
The NBA’s regular season concludes a week from Sunday and there are still a fair amount of things to be sorted in the Eastern Conference standings.
Entering Sunday’s NBA slate, the Celtics sit 1.5 games back of the Milwaukee Bucks for the No. 1 seed. Their chances of getting the top spot aren’t too great as Basketball Reference gives them a 31.6 percent chance of getting the No. 1 seed. But it practically guarantees that Boston will finish with a top-two seed, giving it a 99.1 percent chance to finish above third place in the Eastern Conference.
If Boston ends up with the No. 2 seed, it’d face the winner of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in tournament game in the first round of the playoffs. If the Bucks aren’t able to hold onto the top spot, the Celtics would face the team that plays in last play-in tournament game, which is between the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 seeded game and the winner of the No. 9 vs. No. 10 seeded game.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the Celtics’ possible first-round opponents with a week to go in the regular season.
Brooklyn Nets
Nets’ record entering Sunday: 42-35
Celtics’ record vs. Nets this season: 3-1
Nets’ probability to get the seventh seed and the eighth seed (via Basketball reference): 7.8 percent chance for the seventh seed; 3.9 percent chance for the eighth seed.
The Celtics have only had one crack at the Nets since they traded Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving ahead of the trade deadline. It might’ve been their worst loss of the season.
Boston blew a 28-point lead against Brooklyn in the March 3 matchup, in which Robert Williams suffered a hamstring injury that forced him to depart the game early. Still, the Celtics didn’t play well enough on either end of the court as Jayson Tatum shot 10-of-23 from the field in the 115-105 loss.
Mikal Bridges, who the Nets got in return for Durant, scored 38 points in that game and has had a scoring breakout since arriving in Brooklyn. He’s averaging 27.5 points per game while shooting 50.5 percent from the field and 43.4 percent from deep.
But while Bridges has put up star numbers, they haven’t translated to as many wins as the Nets have probably hoped for. They’ve gone 10-13 since the trade deadline, posting a subpar offensive rating (113.8) and defensive rating (115.1) over that stretch.
Miami Heat
Heat’s record entering Sunday: 41-37
Celtics’ record vs. Heat this season: 2-2
Heat’s probability to get the seventh seed and the eighth seed (via Basketball Reference): 39 percent chance for the seventh seed; 20.2 percent chance for the eighth seed.
Many Celtics fans might still have a fear of the Heat following last season’s Eastern Conference finals, in which Boston nearly blew a double-digit lead in Game 7 before pulling away.
There might be some reasons to still have some of that same fear. Jimmy Butler has turned his play up a notch since the All-Star break, averaging 25.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game with an astonishing 71.5 true shooting percentage.
Boston also split the season series, losing to Miami on Jan. 24 in the last game between the two teams in which Butler didn’t play (though the Celtics were without Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, and Al Horford in that game).
But the Heat haven’t been too impressive outside of Butler since the All-Star break. They’ve gone 9-10 in their last 19 games, getting outscored by 4.4 points per 100 possessions. Their defense has also been the sixth-worst in the league during that stretch, posting a 118.8 defensive rating.
Moreover, the Heat have the worst plus/minus of the 20 teams currently in the playoff and play-in picture. On average, the Heat have been outscored by 0.9 points per game by their opponents this season, making them just one of two teams in the aforementioned 20-team group that holds a negative plus/minus.
Atlanta Hawks
Hawks’ record entering Sunday: 38-39
Celtics’ record vs. Hawks this season: 2-0
Hawks’ probability to get the seventh seed and the eighth seed (via Basketball Reference): 19.6 percent chance for the seventh seed; 21.8 percent chance for the eighth seed.
There might be no potential playoff team that’s dealt with more inner turmoil this season than the Hawks.
Atlanta swung a trade for All-Star guard Dejounte Murray in the offseason hoping it would propel it back to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. Instead, the Hawks have hovered around .500 for pretty much the entire season, leading to coach Nate McMillan getting fired and Quin Snyder getting hired to replace him at the All-Star break.
The Hawks have continued their middling ways with Snyder so far, going 7-9 with an impressive 119.9 offensive rating but an atrocious 120.1 defensive mark.
Boston’s game against Atlanta on March 11 was pretty exemplary of how the Hawks have played for much of the year. Trae Young scored 35 points and the Hawks shot 50 percent from the field to score 125 points against a Celtics defense that’s top-five statically.
But the Hawks’ defense was nearly non-existent in that game. The Celtics shot 54.7 percent from the field and made 20-of-42 3-pointers, committing just eight turnovers to score 134 points.
The Celtics actually shot similarly from the field in their first matchup against the Hawks this season, making 54.5 percent of their shots and 21 3-pointers in a 126-101 win. The two teams will face off for the last time on the final day of the regular season.
Toronto Raptors
Raptors’ record entering Sunday: 38-39
Celtics’ record vs. Raptors this season: 2-0
Raptors’ probability to get the seventh seed and the eighth seed (via Basketball Reference): 22.1 percent chance for the seventh seed; 26.6 percent chance for the eighth seed.
The Celtics have a pair of upcoming matchups against the Raptors this week, both of which will be played in Boston, that could set up as a playoff preview.
Toronto swung one of the more interesting trades at the deadline, re-acquiring center Jakob Poeltl as the team opted not to be sellers. As a result, the Raptors worked their way back up the playoff standings, going 12-9 since the trade deadline.
Poeltl has played well for the Raptors, scoring 14.1 points and grabbing 9.6 rebounds per game while adding 1.4 blocks per game. Toronto has also played really well defensively with Poeltl on the floor, posting a 108.1 defensive rating and a 9.2 net rating so far.
While Poeltl has been a revelation for the Raptors, their All-Star has slumped since his arrival. Pascal Siakam’s scoring average has dropped by four points since the All-Star Game, going from 25.2 points per game to 21 points per game on a 52.8 true shooting percentage.
There might not be much to glean from the prior two Celtics-Raptors games this season. The first took place in early December and the second in mid-January, with Tatum missing the latter.
Chicago Bulls
Bulls’ record entering Sunday: 37-40
Celtics’ record vs. Bulls this season: 2-2
Bulls’ probability to get the seventh seed and the eighth seed (via Basketball Reference): 11.4 percent chance for the seventh seed; 27.2 percent chance for the eighth seed.
Out of this group, the Bulls have given the Celtics the most trouble this season. The Bulls won both matchups in Chicago in convincing fashion while the Celtics didn’t seal their wins in Boston until the final moments.
It should be noted though that both games that were played in Chicago took place prior to Thanksgiving and the last time these two teams faced each other was on Jan. 9.
But those early-season wins against the Celtics weren’t enough for the Bulls to even solidify themselves in the play-in range. In fact, they didn’t really start to solidify themselves in the play-in range until early March, following the pickup of guard Patrick Beverley off the buyout market.
Since the addition of Beverley during the All-Star break, the Bulls have gone 11-7 and have posted the fourth-best defensive rating in the league (111.2).
While Beverley has helped the Bulls’ defense during that stretch, Zach LaVine’s re-emergence as a star player has lifted them offensively. LaVine’s field goal percentage has jumped from 46.5 percent prior to the All-Star break to 54.2 percent since the break. He’s also made 44 percent of his 3-pointers since the All-Star break, helping him score 27.9 points per game over the recent stretch.
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