Boston Celtics

How the Celtics stack up with Eastern Conference contenders following the All-Star break

Boston currently holds the sixth seed, just good enough to avoid the play-in round.

Analytic models project that the Celtics stand to have a deep playoff run. Jim Davis/Globe Staff

By Conor Roche

3 minutes to read

The Celtics are starting to play like the team many analysts thought they would play like entering the season.

Boston won nine straight games before falling to Detroit on Wednesday, giving it a 34-26 record entering the All-Star break. With 22 games remaining, the Celtics hold the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference standings – just good enough to avoid a second straight year of the play-in tournament.

In addition to avoiding the play-in, the other top five seeds aren’t too far out of reach for Boston. The Celtics are just two games back of the three seed, which is currently held by the 76ers who hold it in a three-way tie over the Cavaliers and Bucks. They’re also 4.5 games behind the Heat and Bulls, who are tied for the conference’s top seed.

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However, they don’t have much breathing room to avoid the play-in. The seventh-seeded Raptors are just a half-game back, and the Nets – who expect Kevin Durant to return and Ben Simmons to make his debut soon – are 2.5 games back of the Celtics.

There are a couple of things though working in the Celtics’ favor. Nets star Kyrie Irving can only play in eight of his team’s final 23 games unless he gets vaccinated or New York City changes its indoor vaccination mandate.

The other thing is that many of the teams they’re jockeying for position with in the conference have tough schedules. Even though the Celtics have the 10th toughest remaining schedule based on remaining opponents’ winning percentage (.505), the Bucks (.554) and Bulls (.553) have the hardest remaining schedules. The 76ers (.505), the Nets (.505), and the Heat (.501) aren’t too far behind the Celtics either, ranking 12th, 13th, and 16th, respectively. Only the Cavaliers (.487) and Raptors (.486) have schedules in which their remaining opponents are a combined .500 or less.

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Boston’s relatively tough schedule might not be too big of a concern, though, considering how well it’s played as of late. The Celtics are No. 1 in the league in net rating over their last 15 games, which is mostly carried by their defense – which also ranks as the best during that stretch. Their offense isn’t too far behind either, ranking ninth in offensive rating in the league over the last 15 games – suggesting that they might have put their offensive woes from earlier in the season behind them.

Following the recent hot streak, the Celtics hold the top net rating in the Eastern Conference (5.4), which has been carried by their starting five that’s finally been healthy as of late. The Celtics’ starting lineup of Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, and Robert Williams has the best net rating (26.5) for any starting lineup in the league. In the 23 games they’ve played together, they’ve gone 17-6, which would give them the second-best winning percentage (.793).

The Celtics’ starting lineup with Derrick White, who was their big acquisition at the trade deadline, instead of Horford has also done well in a short sample size, putting together a 42.7 net rating over two games.

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The net rating strength of the Celtics’ starting and closing lineups has led to analytic models projecting them to have a strong ending to their season. FiveThirtyEight projects them to finish the season with a 49-33 record, giving them a greater than 99 percent chance to make the playoffs. Because the Celtics have the best full-strength rating in their system, not only does FiveThirtyEight give them the best chance to reach the NBA Finals (35 percent), but it also gives them the best chance to win it, too (21 percent).

ESPN’s NBA Basketball Power Index (which is meant to be the “best predictor of a team’s performance for the rest of the season” by using game-by-game efficiency, strength of schedule, pace, days of rest, game location, and preseason expectations) also views the Celtics in a high regard. Boston’s 7.2 BPI is the second-best in the league, only trailing Phoenix (7.9).

In terms of predicting the rest of the season, BPI projects the Celtics to finish with a 48-34 record – giving them a 99 percent chance to make the playoffs. Like FiveThirtyEight, BPI is also relatively high on the Celtics’ chances to win the title. Boston has the second-best percentage to win the title at 14 percent, according to BPI, trailing just Phoenix (17.8 percent).

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Sportsbooks aren’t as high on the Celtics’ chances as the analytic models. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Boston’s odds to win the Atlantic Division at +340 (22.7 percent implied probability), trailing the 76ers. It also gives the Celtics the fifth-best odds to win the conference (+1100, 8.3 percent implied probability) and tied for the eighth-best odds to win the title (+2500, 3.8 percent implied probability).

Whether or not the models are correct in giving the Celtics a good shot at hanging banner No. 18 soon remains to be seen, but it’s hard to deny that the Celtics are playing really well right now – which sets up for an exciting final couple of months of the regular season.

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