Why Kemba Walker’s recent performance is encouraging
Walker's starting to get back into his All-Star form.
It probably took longer than most would’ve liked, but Kemba Walker is starting to play like his former self. In his most recent performance, Walker scored 21 points on 7-of-17 shooting in the Celtics’ win over the Wizards on Sunday.
Sunday’s game marked the fourth time in the last five games that Walker’s scored at least 20 points and gave him seven 20-point performances over 12 games in February, his first full month of action this season. In the 12 games he played in last month, Walker averaged 20.3 points and 4.5 assists per game. He did just shoot 39.2 percent from the field for the month, but made 38.2 percent of his 3-pointers in the month, which is more in-line with the 38.1 percent he shot from there last season.
The last two weeks in particular are more encouraging. Dating back to the Celtics’ Valentine’s Day blowout loss to the Wizards, Walker’s averaged 22.6 points per game, shooting 43.9 percent from the field and 38.1 percent from deep.
Over those two weeks, Walker’s put up a pair of performances in which he looked like the All-Star he was when the Celtics acquired him. Walker scored 28 points in the Celtics’ win over the Hawks on Feb. 19 and scored a season-high 32 points in the Celtics’ win over the Pacers on Friday. Walker’s 32-point performance on Friday was actually the first time he’s scored at least 30 points in a regular-season game since January 2020.
Walker’s recent resurgence has helped the Celtics’ offense perform better. Over the last six games, Walker has a 114.3 offensive rating, an upgrade from the 111.6 offensive rating the Celtics have for this season. In turn, Walker holds a 9.9 net rating in that stretch, meaning the Celtics are outscoring their opponents by that much per 100 possessions with Walker on the court. Even in the Celtics’ two losses in that stretch, Walker held a positive plus/minus.
A big reason why Walker may have seen an uptick in scoring and shooting is rest. In the eight games he’s played this season after two days of rest, Walker’s averaged 20.6 points per game while shooting 43.2 percent from the field and 40.3 percent from 3-point range.
There are a couple of reasons why that matters. Due to knee injections he received this offseason, Walker has sat out the second part of games played on back-to-back days, forcing Walker to miss five games since he’s returned. As we’ve seen the Celtics offense perform better as of late with Walker on the floor, they’ve certainly missed him when he’s been absent.
The Celtics have lost their last four games Walker’s sat and have shot poorly over those games. They’ve made just 30.3 percent of their 3-pointers, down from their season average of shooting 36.7 percent from deep. Their overall field goal percentage in that stretch (45 percent) isn’t much worse compared to their season average (46.3 percent), but it’s still worse.
The dip in shooting percentage without Walker could be explained due to a lack of ball movement. In their last four games without Walker, the Celtics have averaged an assist percentage (the percentage of field goals that were assisted) of 54 percent. In their last six games with Walker, they’ve averaged an assist percentage of 56.3 percent, suggesting that the Celtics are doing a better job passing the ball for shots with Walker than without.
The other reason why Walker not playing back-to-backs matters is that come playoff time (should the Celtics make it, of course), the Celtics won’t have to worry about back-to-backs as the playoff schedule is usually stretched out.
While much of the dialogue about the Celtics’ struggles in recent weeks has been about who can step up outside of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the answer may have been staring at everyone this whole time. And if the only thing that’s preventing the Celtics from getting a consistent effort from Walker and their other top guys is rest, they may be in better shape than their .500 record suggests, especially with Marcus Smart’s return looming.
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