Are the Celtics in trouble if they end up as the No. 4 or 5 seed?

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When the regular season began, the Celtics were widely considered by basketball pundits as the favorites to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.

Fresh off a season in which they were one strong quarter away from advancing to the sport’s grandest stage – and with Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward back and LeBron James no longer in the picture – the Celtics appeared to have all the pieces in place to play deep into June.

To this point, however, the season hasn’t unfolded at all as Boston hoped it would. As of Saturday afternoon, the Celtics sit at 38-25, 10.5 games behind the first-place Milwaukee Bucks, 8 behind the Toronto Raptors, 3 behind the Indiana Pacers, and 2.5 behind the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Bucks have bolstered an already-deep frontcourt by adding Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol, the Raptors traded for Marc Gasol, and the 76ers brought in versatile wing Tobias Harris. The Celtics, meanwhile, stayed with the same core they assembled to start the year.

Boston is currently traversing a dangerously thin tightrope. Prior to Friday’s 11-point win over the Washington Wizards, the Celtics had lost four in a row and six of eight, sputtering into and out of the All-Star Break and leaving both fans and themselves perplexed and searching for answers.

The Celtics have looked lost at times, but they’ve consistently reiterated that they believe they’ll be able to turn it on in the postseason. It’s a slippery slope, but point guard Kyrie Irving believes it’s possible.

“I can’t wait for all this other BS about regular season – and keep getting better, and talking over and over and over about what we can do to keep getting better in the regular season,” he told reporters. “I just want to be at the highest level playing. And that’s what I’m here for.”

Irving remains confident, but the odds are stacked against the Celtics if they end up in the 4 or 5 spot in the East. Only five 4 through 8 seeds have made the Finals in the last 30 years, and just one has won it all, so Boston will have to defy the odds if the standings stay more or less the same.

There’s still an outside chance the Celtics nab the 3-seed in the East, and a tiny chance they drop to the 6, but it seems more likely than not they’ll end up in the 4 or 5 spot and face the Pacers or 76ers in the first round. Even if the Celtics go 14-5 in their final 19 games, they would finish 52-30 (.634), which is a lower winning percentage than the Pacers and 76ers currently have.

It’s no secret that the Celtics’ main focus is on sharpening their level of play and gaining consistency over the next few weeks. The players believe that wins will come naturally if they’re playing their best basketball, and they expect to do so in the postseason.

They’ve publicly stated that they believe no team in the East can beat them when they’re executing the way they’re supposed to, but history shows that life isn’t easy for 4 or 5 seeds in the playoffs.

NBA Finals results:

1989 – 1-seed Pistons beat 1-seed Lakers

1990 – 1 seed Pistons over 3-seed Blazers

1991 – 1-seed Bulls over 3-seed Lakers

1992 – 1-seed Bulls over 1-seed Blazers

1993 – 2-seed Bulls over 1-seed Suns

1994 – 2-seed Rockets over 2-seed Knicks

1995 – 6-seed Rockets over 1-seed Magic

1996 – 1-seed Bulls over 1-seed Sonics

1997 – 1-seed Bulls over 1-seed Jazz

1998 – 1-seed Bulls over 1-seed Jazz

1999 – 1-seed Spurs over 8-seed Knicks

2000 – 1-seed Lakers over 1-seed Pacers

2001 – 2-seed Lakers over 1-seed 76ers

2002 – 3-seed Lakers over 1-seed Nets

2003 – 1-seed Spurs over 2-seed Nets

2004 – 3-seed Pistons over 2-seed Lakers

2005 – 2-seed Spurs over 2-seed Pistons

2006 – 2-seed Heat over 4-seed Mavericks

2007 – 3-seed Spurs over 2-seed Cavaliers

2008 – 1-seed Celtics over 1-seed Lakers

2009 – 1-seed Lakers over 3-seed Magic

2010 – 1-seed Lakers over 4-seed Celtics

2011 – 3-seed Mavericks over 2-seed Heat

2012 – 2-seed Heat over 2-seed Thunder

2013 – 1-seed Heat over 2-seed Spurs

2014 – 1-seed Spurs over 2-seed Heat

2015 – 1-seed Warriors over 2-seed Spurs

2016 – 1-seed Cavaliers over 1-seed Warriors

2017 – 1-seed Warriors over 2-seed Cavaliers

2018 – 1-seed Warriors over 4-seed Cavaliers

In the past 30 seasons, 19 of the eventual champions have entered the playoffs as the No. 1 seed in their respective conference, and 31 of the 60 total teams that have made the Finals have been 1-seeds. Six 2-seeds have won it all, while 11 more 2-seeds have lost in the Finals.

The Lakers won it all in 2002 as a 3-seed, which isn’t exactly uplifting for Celtics fans, but the third-seeded Dallas Mavericks also beat the LeBron James-led Miami Heat in 2011. Two other 3-seeds won the title, and three 3-seeds lost in the Finals, while the sixth-seeded Houston Rockets won it all in 1995.

No other 4 through 8 seeds have won the championship in the last 30 years, and only five have made the Finals – three 4-seeds, the Rockets, and Jeff Van Gundy’s eighth-seeded New York Knicks in 1999.

It may seem like the odds are stacked against the Celtics if they stay in the 4 or 5 slot – and, make no mistake, they are – but take out your magnifying glass, read the fine print, and are there are some promising results sprinkled into a largely discouraging trend.

We gonna get it together don’t sleep Boston! Bounce right back!

— Marcus Morris (@MookMorris2) March 1, 2019

The first, and most obvious, example is the 2010 Celtics. When Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen teamed up in 2008, the path to a championship was remarkably smooth considering all the moving parts it took to get there.

In 2010, the journey to the Finals wasn’t just a little more rocky, as Boston lost eight of its final 13 games and sputtered to the 4-seed in the East. The Celtics blasted the Heat in the first round, crept by the top-seeded Cavaliers in six games, and outlasted the Orlando Magic in six as well.

Boston lost to the Lakers in seven games, but making it all the way to the Finals was still an impressive accomplishment considering how the season started. This year’s team envisions a similar path with a different end result.

The most recent example is one less dear to Celtics fans, as James and Co. prevailed in Game 7 and went on to face the Golden State Warriors last spring. This year’s Celtics team has lacked some of the moxie associated with last year’s group, but if the Celtics can channel their inner Cavaliers, perhaps they can beat a slightly less-experienced Bucks team when it matters most.

Irving also likened this year’s Celtics to the 2017 Cavaliers, who finished in the No. 2 slot and steamrolled their way to the Finals before losing to the Warriors.

“I don’t think anybody in the Eastern Conference can really compete with (the Celtics) at a high level when we’re playing the way we’re supposed to be playing,” Irving told reporters.