These are the best-and-worst-case outcomes for the Celtics in the playoffs
COMMENTARYI’d say this past Celtics season should be turned into a ride at Six Flags but I don’t think they’d be able to get the proper insurance coverage. 82 games of break-neck twists, dizzying highs, and nauseating lows have led us here. It is a playoff path so frustratingly tailored for a fully healthy team to make a deep run that it’s hard to really figure out how far this iteration of the Celtics will actually go. On one hand, the path to the Conference Finals is nearly perfect. No Cleveland. No Toronto. They just have to beat an undisciplined team under an interim coach and, probably, a super-talented but also super-young team ready to be taught a tough playoff lesson. On the other, the Celtics are in no position to take advantage of that. The tattered scraps of the original roster have performed admirably in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different arena in which sheer talent typically reigns above all else. How can you make a deep run where the best player in every possible series is on the other team?So… how will this go?
The optimistic view
The Celtics, for all their injury issues, only had one mid-season swoon, which came after their return from London. They were the top seed for most of the season and, as recently as last week, were one win away from facing Toronto to reclaim that spot. No matter which player got hurt, no matter who got sick, the Celtics epitomized the “next man up” mentality and just kept moving forward. That this team didn’t drop to the bottom of the standings is a testament to the resilience of the players and the high quality of coaching. Their crown free agent jewel played five minutes and their star point guard missed a quarter of the season, yet, here they are, unbowed.Al Horford is an All-Star. Terry Rozier is a starting-level point guard. Jayson Tatum, despite being a rookie, is a stud scorer. Jaylen Brown is growing into one of the league’s finest two-way players. Aron Baynes is a fierce rim protector. Marcus Morris can carry the bench unit’s scoring. These are all factual statements proven to be true over extended periods this season. They’ve lost their highest level talent, but this roster is so deep, their replacements have been able to rise up and produce well enough to keep winning. Add a soon-to-return Marcus Smart to the mix and Coach of the Year candidate Brad Stevens can whip up a plan to make this group formidable. First up in the playoffs are the Milwaukee Bucks. While they have the obviously best player in the series, the team isn’t nearly cohesive enough to deal with Boston’s precision and discipline. The Bucks are prone to making significant defensive mistakes that can’t always be covered up by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s freakish length. There’s also this…
Horford averaged 19-7-5 on 71% shooting vs. the bucks this year in 4 games.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) April 12, 2018
Horford requires attention, and a lot of it is away from the hoop. As much as people cry about him needing to score more, the mere threat of him from deep can pull Antetokounmpo far enough away from the rim to significantly lessen his defensive impact.
The Celtics defense, meanwhile, finished the season as best in the NBA. Every player who steps onto the floor for Brad Stevens is fully engaged in the plan, be it switching picks or playing a zone. The Celtics have unleashed those zone-like wrinkles that could swing a series against a Bucks team that was 22nd in the NBA in 3-point percentage.
The matchup just works well for a Celtics team with all the tools to outmatch and outwit Milwaukee. From there they’d get the winner of Philadelphia and Miami.
Let’s assume the third-seed Sixers win.
The Celtics have beaten Philadelphia three of four times this season. Joel Embiid played in two of those games and struggled against Al Horford (12 points scored vs. Horford on 5 of 14 fg). He did slightly better against Aron Baynes (20 points on 6 of 14 fg) but the limited evidence shows the Celtics defense can hold him somewhat in check.
In 68 possessions against Al Horford, Ben Simmons shot 4 of 12, scored eight points, had six assists, and three turnovers. He also struggled when matched up on Marcus Morris (39 possessions, 1 of 5 fg, 2 assists, 2 turnovers) and Jaylen Brown (39 possessions, 3 of 7 fg, 1 assist, 2 turnovers).
The Celtics simply match up well against Philadelphia. Yes, Philly’s season-ending 16 game winning streak was impressive, but it also involved wins against just three playoff teams and all three of those games were at home.
Philadelphia is amazingly talented but they’re not ready for prime time just yet. The Celtics, meanwhile, have veterans at key positions ready to take control and a coach who can make that happen.
They CAN get past the Bucks.
They CAN get past Philadelphia.
From there, we’d just have to wait and see how battle-worn Toronto or Cleveland are and if there’s any sort of injury suffered along the way that changes the complexion of a Conference Finals series.
The Celtics are already being counted out, but anyone who does might have some crow to eat.
The pessimistic view
The playoffs are a different game. The Celtics regular season success is impressive, but it was also helped by one big thing that doesn’t exist in the postseason. The regular season schedule is a slog that, except for back-to-backs, has new teams shuffling in and out of town almost every other night. There is a lack of practice time and, therefore, a lack of in-depth game planning for a particular opponent. To put it more simply, the schedule is so hectic, teams basically have to go into each game trying to do whatever it is they do best and hope it’s good enough to beat the other team. Aside from some in-game adjustments, starters, substitution patterns, and game plans are mostly the same. The playoffs, though, provide a much different opportunity for coaching staffs. Milwaukee and Boston knew they’d be playing each other on Wednesday night. By the time they play on Sunday, they’ll have had three full days and then some to break the other team down to the finest granular points. On Sunday afternoon, there will be no excuse for not knowing every little habit of every opposing player. This is why you keep hearing how much talent wins in a playoff series. This is why facing Giannis Antetokounmpo in the first round is not the best idea. Because in a situation where you can game-plan how to stop every single player on the other team, it’s the player with the most supernatural talent that still manages to find a way to do damage. The playoffs are natural selection. They are survival of the fittest, which almost always means survival of the most talented. So even if the Celtics manage to get past Milwaukee, they will likely have to face a blistering hot, super-talented Sixers team. Their youth definitely makes them susceptible to the playoff pressure, but at the same time, their talent makes it very possible they can rise above it. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are monsters on both ends of the floor. They, along with Robert Covington, may well find themselves on the NBA’s All-Defense teams. They can, with their energy and talent, make it exceptionally difficult to score for anyone, much less a Celtics team without its two best scoring options entering the season. Can the Celtics get past Milwaukee? Yeah, they can, but at this point we’re diving into the semantic “possible” versus “probable” argument. In a fight where both guys can duck and block most punches, it’s the one who lands the hardest blows who tends to win. The optimism is admirable, but how hard will the Celtics be punching at this point?
In conclusion
Both sides have solid points. Talent matters a lot in the playoffs, but so do matchups. Sometimes having just the right guys in just the right places can mean a little more when facing better individual talent, especially if the in-game adjustments from the coaches are on point.Sometimes, though, it’s just not enough. If an exceptional player starts doing exceptional things, there’s very little any team can do about it. The Celtics still, amazingly, have a decent path to the Conference Finals. They will need everyone to play their best, and even that might not be enough to beat the supremely talented players they face in some games. There will be games in which the Celtics cohesion and matchups are just too precise. There will be games in which Giannis goes full Greek Freak and Go Go Gadgets his way to too many ridiculous baskets to make any game plan matter. How will this go?Just like everything else in this wild Celtics season, we’ll just have buckle up and try to enjoy the ride.
