Mailbag: Are the Celtics getting their money’s worth out of Al Horford?
Plus, our thoughts on the Bruins' playoff outlook and the best seats in Fenway Park.
Just in time for the NHL and NBA playoffs, we’re back with the second edition of the Boston.com sports mailbag. Here’s the first edition, if you missed it.Every week we’ll respond to your questions about the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, Bruins and anything else tangentially related to Boston sports. Have a thought, theory, or question for the mailbag? Send them into [email protected].
@Cuda0118: Are the Celtics getting their money’s worth out of Al Horford? He isn’t averaging a double double and barely scores 15 points a game.
Nicole:
It might sound a little cliché, but there’s a lot more to basketball than just what’s included in the box score. I understand production and tangible results are important when a player is in the second season of a four-year, $113 million contract. That’s a lot of money. But Horford does a lot to help the Celtics win.
He’s reliable, versatile, mobile, and unselfish — all of which help facilitate both Boston’s offense and defense. He can direct traffic and pass the ball — averaging 4.7 assists per game — while also scoring on his own via layup, three-point shot, or game-winning jumper when needed. Horford shot 48.9 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from behind the arc this past regular season.
As Brad Stevens put it before the All-Star break, “It’s good to see a guy that may not have the quote ‘stats’ that other people have recognized for all that he brings to the table, night in, night out, on both ends of the court.”
With such a young locker room this season, Horford’s veteran leadership is also a huge component of his worth. That being said, there are of course things he could improve upon. I know I somewhat rebuffed stats earlier, but the Celtics could probably benefit from a few more boards from him per game (he’s currently averaging 7.4 RPG), and there are times where he could be more aggressive in driving to the basket or taking advantage of certain looks he gets.
Lacking a 20-10 stat line, however, shouldn’t bring into question Horford’s value. Sure, it would be nice, but he brings enough to the table that makes harping on the “Al Horford is ‘average’ narrative” seem silly.
Nik: Horford has weirdly become a polarizing player. Sure, he doesn’t rebound at the same rate as he did earlier in his career and struggles at times against particularly physical or athletic bigs. And maybe his clunky playing style isn’t as aesthetically pleasing as watching Steph Curry.
But there’s a reason the Celtics had the best defensive rating in the league this season, and it starts with Horford. The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor recently described him as the Celtics’ “linebacker”:
He directs others and is almost always in the right position.
Horford averages only 0.7 steals and 0.5 blocks per game, but defensive counting stats don’t begin to tell his impact. He isn’t as much of a shot blocker as he’s a master of angles. He uses positioning and timing to stick in front of the opponent. He’s light on his feet and can keep in front of guards, or freakish forwards like Giannis Antetokounmpo.
It really is the little things that Horford does that are why some in the NBA say he’s the most underrated player in the league. If his stats don’t seem like they’re living up to his max contract, it’s because they were never going to. It’s the things he does on the court that don’t have a column in the box score that make him valuable.
Chad Finn can take it from here.
@Joshmackb: Any Manziel updates?
Nicole:
There aren’t any specific Johnny Manziel-Patriots updates, as I’m not sure if the Pats sent any scouts to watch him participate in his Spring League games that just wrapped up in Austin, Texas. Either way, I don’t think the Patriots are going to make an offer because of the promise that comes with their current draft picks.
New England has four selections within the top two rounds, which is ample ammunition to trade to do one of the following: Move up the board in order draft a viable passer to back up Tom Brady or just outright draft a quarterback with one of their current picks. Both of those options seem more likely than signing Manziel.
Yes, he would be cheap. Yes, they could simply cut him from the practice squad if things turn sour. But I don’t think the Patriots want to waste their time. Several QBs in this draft seem more talented, more consistent, and less problematic than Manziel. As unpredictable as the Patriots can be, I just don’t envision them straying from the path of least resistance in this situation.
In terms of Manziel’s individual career, he essentially has a month to make a decision for next season. The 25-year-old has a standing offer from a CFL team, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, but he’d have to report to training camp mid-May. If he doesn’t have an offer from an NFL team by then, he’ll be faced with the tough decision of whether he wants to hold out for an NFL deal or play in the CFL on a two-year commitment.
@Timesse1976: Do our boys (the Bruins) once again feel good about making it all the way judging by their first opponents?
Nicole:
I think Bruins fans have every right to be optimistic about their chances headed into the postseason — and the B’s 5-1 win in Game 1 probably validated some of those feelings. But Toronto isn’t going to be a cakewalk.
Given what happened the last time these two teams played in the postseason, the Maple Leafs are probably fired up for this series. In the time since that matchup, they’ve bolstered their lineup with a crew of youngsters, including the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft: Auston Matthews. Matthews has 34 goals (five game-winners) and 29 assists this season.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the home team won every matchup in this series. The Bruins have home ice advantage, so they should advance if that’s the case.
Nik: Full disclosure: I’m no Bruins expert and Thursday’s Game 1 shellacking of the Leafs may or may not have been the first whole game I’ve watched this year.
But I have read what the experts have had to say about this upstart team’s playoff chances. The takeaway: The Bruins are for real and should be considered a top contender for the Cup. But so are the Leafs, with Auston Matthews leading a stacked frontline. From ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski:
This Leafs team (49-26-7) is loaded up front, and just trying to make the best of it on the back end. But it’s certainly closer to breaking the drought since 1967 than any Toronto team in recent memory.
I would say Bruins fans should be cautiously optimistic, but let’s not get caught looking ahead to the next series before the current one is finished.
Gabby M.: Who is your pick for NBA Rookie of the Year? Donovan Mitchell, Ben Simmons, or Jayson Tatum?
Nik: Sorry, Celtics fans. As much as Tatum has shined in his role this year, he’s not in the discussion. But don’t feel too bad, this has been an impressive rookie class.Mitchell might be a more complete player (since, you know, he can shoot outside ten feet), but Simmons is the more transcendent. Watching how he led the break, found passing lanes, and even bullied opponents in lane against the Cavaliers last week, the 21-year-old looked like an established All-NBA-type player.
And it wasn’t just last Friday against the Cavs; Simmons is averaged roughly 16 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists this season. And he’s led the Sixers on a 16-game winning streak headed into the playoffs. Eight of those games have been without fellow ascendant star Joel Embiid.
I’m really excited to see what both — OK, all three — rookies do in these playoffs. And it’s a shame we can’t claw back Malcolm Brogdon’s underwhelming 2016-17 Rookie of the Year award and give it to Mitchell.
Nicole: I would love to see Donovan Mitchell win for the drama and for the unbelievable season he’s had. He’s played a hugely important role in Utah’s success this season, averaging 20.5 points per game — the highest among all rookies.
Mitchell has become the team’s No. 1 scoring option, while quickly stepping into the role of a skillful playmaker as well. The unexpectedness of his impressive performance adds to the fun, but I think it also highlights just how effective Quin Snyder’s coaching has been this season.
Mitchell probably won’t win Rookie of the Year and Snyder probably won’t win Coach of the Year, either. But both candidates most definitely deserve to be in the discussion. Ben Simmons probably has ROY locked up, but it would be interesting, and also hilariously frustrating, if the NBA made them share the honor.
@Texdale: With the BoSox having basically two DH’s, I guess that has moved Mitch Moreland to PH and late-game defensive status, right?
Nik: Honestly, I had to Google last week whether or not Mitch Moreland was still on the team, which is less a testament to his performance as a player (which was fine last year; less so in this young season) than it was the glut of players the Red Sox have a the first base/designated hitter positions.I was somewhat surprised to see that he started four and played in nine of the 13 games the Red Sox have played through Thursday. That said, with Alex Cora’s emphasis on rest and the flexible roster rotation, there should be plenty of space for Moreland. J.D. Martinez can be shuffled into the outfield. Hanley Ramirez is seeing a lot of time at first base. Moreland should be able find some time as well, even if he won’t log the 149 games he did last year.If the playing time he’s received so far continues on pace, we’d expect to see Moreland start up to 50 games and fill in as a sub in at least another 50. Of course, he could also see more much more playing time if someone suffers a significant injury (Not Hanley. Please not Hanley, we need him. *Breaks hand knocking on wood*)
@Sox_Pats82: What are your thoughts on the pitching staff with Eduardo Rodriguez coming back, Stephen Wright coming off suspension, and Drew Pomeranz at some point coming off the DL? Will Brian Johnson be the odd man out?
Nik: It appears so. Johnson’s last three appearances have come out of the bullpen — which I think is a bummer! I might be biased because I was there when Johnson pitched a complete game shutout in his Fenway debut last year and the 26-year-old also looked really strong in his one start this year. Unfortunately, we have a very small sample size of what he can do as a healthy starter.
Frank D.: The loss of Riley Nash, I believe, has really hurt the Bruins, forcing others to move around. Any idea on when he is due back and any thoughts on the impact of his loss?
Nicole:
Riley Nash was ruled out for Game 1 against the Maple Leafs, but has not yet officially been ruled out for Game 2, though coach Bruce Cassidy says it “looks doubtful.” As Cassidy noted during his press conference Wednesday, Nash is a versatile player who “filled in a lot of different spots” for the Bruins. He was also valuable on the penalty kill and won 48.4 percent of the face-offs he took.
Bruce Cassidy says Riley Nash is progressing well, but doesn’t believe he’ll play tomorrow: “Looks doubtful.”
— x – Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) April 13, 2018
“The spot we need him in right now, or the spot he would have been in, is third-line center,” Cassidy said. “I thought he was a good anchor in that line with [David] Backes and [Danton] Heinen.”
Nash has been skating — a positive sign — but it appears it’s still uncertain when he’ll next play in a game. Cassidy said it depends on “how he progresses.” I assume part of the hesitation in green-lighting his return is due to concerns about a future concussion. Nash required 40-plus stitches to repair the ear laceration he suffered when he was struck in the side of the head by a puck on March 31.
The location of the injury probably makes it rather difficult and uncomfortable to wear a helmet. The Bruins seem to be mitigating his absence accordingly, and I wouldn’t rush Nash’s return. As much as the team would love to have him back, they’d rather ensure he’s healthy deeper in the postseason, too.
🎥 Bruce Cassidy on Riley Nash being ruled out for Game 1: “He’s an underrated guy that does a lot of little things well that we’ll miss.” pic.twitter.com/DA8R4Nb7MH
— x – Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) April 11, 2018
Poll of the week: Where would you rather sit at Fenway Park?
Where would you rather sit at Fenway Park?
— Boston.com Red Sox News (@BDCSox) April 5, 2018
Nik: Up until this year, I think I probably would have said on of the Green Monster. Having gone to Sox games since I was little and taken advantage of every rain delay to scope out the close seats that had been abandoned by wealthy season-ticket holders, I’ve seen gotten to see Fenway Park from pretty much every angle — except from atop the Green Monster, which are perhaps provide the most unique perspective in all of baseball. Those seats have pretty much been my white whale — or green whale.
However, I now have a second white whale, which wasn’t included in the above poll: Fenway’s new Jim Beam Dugout.
The Red Sox installed the new fan dugout next to the actual team’s dugout this offseason and the lucky people at Boston magazine recently got to try them out. Everything about their experience sounded extraordinary — from the super-close view of the players to the on-demand bourbon cocktails. I now just have to cobble together at least $12,500 and — even more improbably — 24 friends.
Nicole: I’ve never sat on the Green Monster, either. If I could attend only one Red Sox game in my entire life, I’d probably pick the Green Monster for the lure, the experience, and the view. On an average day, however, I’d rather stay behind the dugout because that’s where you can pick up on some of the fun interactions among the players. Their celebrations and handshakes and whatnot are pretty fun.
What’s on deck this weekend?
Nik:
It’s playoff season! I will be watch be taking in as Bruins, Celtics, and general NBA action as possible — and also praying for Aron Baynes.
Nicole: I got tricked by PFT Commenter and thought Kawhi Leonard was going to play against the Warriors Saturday, so I’m extremely disappointed that’s not the case. Regardless, I’m excited for that series as well as Timberwolves-Rockets.
https://twitter.com/PFTCommenter/status/984504692217532416
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