Here’s a realistic package the Celtics could send the Knicks for Kristaps Porzingis
The Knicks are surprisingly fielding calls on the promising 21-year-old big man
COMMENTARY
Danny Ainge acknowledged at the end of the 2016-17 season that the Celtics have a lot of good players, but need some great ones. While a number of familiar names that fit that bill (Paul George, Jimmy Butler) can reportedly be had on the trade market this June, there is one young elite prospect with unexpected availability for Ainge: Knicks power forward Kristaps Porzingis.
The 7-foot-3 Latvian phenom averaged 18.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game in just his second NBA season, but has shown signs of disenchantment with his situation in the Big Apple. Porzingis skipped his exit meetings with Knicks management in April and reportedly has not been in touch with the team since then. Normally, a rebuilding team like New York would not even consider moving a 21-year-old with the potential to emerge as one of the best scorers in the league, but team president Phil Jackson is reportedly considering moving on from his big man, if the price is right. Jackson has assembled a roster full of lackluster contracts (Joakim Noah, Carmelo Anthony, Courtney Lee) and dealing his biggest asset now might help him hit the reset button yet again.
From a Celtics standpoint, the appeal of making a strong run at Porzingis makes sense on a number of levels. The former No. 4 overall pick has already proven himself as a capable scorer all over the floor, shooting 35 percent from 3-point range while attempting 4.8 shots per game from beyond the arc. That kind of range and shot creation is rare to find in any big man, much less a third-year player who has been stuck playing in an outdated offensive system (Triangle) for multiple head coaches in his two NBA seasons.
With the benefit of a stronger supporting cast and improved floor spacing in Boston, Porzingis could reach even greater heights quickly. He’s a matchup nightmare already for most teams around the league with his size advantage on the perimeter and his untapped potential is undoubtedly appealing for suitors all around the league. Any team that traded him would have Porzingis under team control for several more seasons as well, since he’ll only be a restricted free agent when his rookie contract expires at the end of the 2018-19 season. That type of team control gives him more value on the trade market right now than an All-Star like Jimmy Butler or Paul George, who will both be commanding big money veteran max deals in the next couple years.
Porzingis will be vastly underpaid for the final two seasons of his rookie deal, earning an average of just $5.1 million per year. That insignificant salary only enhances his value to a team like Boston, who would also be trying to surround him with All-Star level talent from the free agent market. Ainge could realistically sign Gordon Hayward in July, trade for Porzingis and still have plenty of trade capital to add another big name to the mix without having to worry about luxury tax concerns for the next couple years, until Porzingis needs a new deal.
So what should Ainge be willing to pony up to add Porzingis to the mix? It’s going to take a monster offer in all likelihood, as the Knicks are reportedly seeking out a combination of first round picks and cost controlled talent. The Celtics have plenty to choose from on both of those fronts. If the Celtics were willing to give up the No. 1 overall pick for him anyway (a plausible scenario), an offer could start with the 2017 No. 3 overall pick and the 2018 Lakers protected first-round pick. From there, Ainge would also probably have to add some roster talent to the mix (to match salaries) but he should be picky about how much young talent to include. Adding one of his soon-to-be free agent guards (Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart) would be acceptable with both elite draft picks, but adding a third lottery talent (Jaylen Brown) or a terrific contract (Jae Crowder) would be an overpay in my mind with the two likely top-5 selections.
The things the Celtics need to remember about Porzingis is that the NBA is still trending toward small ball, making the 7-foot-3 big man a questionable fit in some facets of the game. Despite his shot blocking ability, defense has not been a strong suit for Porzingis in his first two seasons. An Al Horford/Porzingis duo in Boston’s frontcourt looks great on paper, but could that pair play together in the fourth quarter of tight games when opposing lineups downsize? Neither has the athleticism to stick with speedy stretch fours and that’s a concern when you are considering investing several of your best trade chips to invest in a big man.
For that reason, the Celtics should hold their ground on selling the farm for the seven-foot phenom. A competitive offer is warranted, whether that’s centered around Jaylen Brown and the No. 3 pick or both picks acquired in the Sixers deal from over the weekend. However, a combination of both would be pushing too hard for a player that could lead to lineup issues for Brad Stevens down the road.
