4 questions the Celtics need to answer before the draft
Danny Ainge has some tough decisions to make as he tries to build the Celtics into a contender.
COMMENTARY
The Celtics enter the 2017 offseason in a position that should make most teams around the NBA jealous: Danny Ainge is armed with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, has the ability to open up max salary cap space, and has most key pieces of his team’s playoff core already under contract for next season.
“The sky’s the limit for this team if we’re able to keep together core guys and add some new pieces,” Avery Bradley said after the Celtics were eliminated by the Cavaliers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. “I feel like Danny Ainge and our entire organization do a great job of putting the right guys together to help us be a contender for a championship.”
The pressure is now on Ainge and the rest of his front office to build on a successful 2016-17 campaign. With a busy few weeks ahead of the NBA Draft and free agency, here are a few questions the team must tackle before building for 2017-18 and beyond.
Which current Celtics does the team want to invest in long-term?
Ainge has elected to stand pat for the last couple seasons when determining the best course of action with his impressive collection of affordable contracts. Avery Bradley has been signed to terrific deal by today’s market standards for the last three seasons (AAV: $8 million/year). Isaiah Thomas was acquired from the Phoenix Suns on a similar kind of bargain contract (AAV: $7 million/year). Marcus Smart has been signed to a cheap rookie deal since being drafted in 2014 as well.
All three of those contracts are set to expire at the conclusion of the 2017-18 season, and it’s a safe bet that the Celtics won’t be able to afford keeping all three players in their backcourt. Ainge doesn’t have to make a decision about the market value of each player just yet, but in order to avoid losing one for nothing via free agency, Boston is probably best served to move on from one player this offseason in order to guarantee some good value in a trade return. You can make a strong case for keeping any of these pieces (Thomas is an All-Star, Bradley has terrific two-way value, Smart is only 23) but with likely No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz potentially entering the picture this summer, the logjam will need to be addressed.
When can the team expect Isaiah Thomas back next season?
The Celtics and Thomas are doing their due diligence when it comes to determining the best course of treatment for the All-Star point guard’s hip injury.
“We don’t know if he needs surgery or what kind of surgery, or if that is a choice,” Danny Ainge told 98.5 the Sports Hub on Thursday. “We’ll wait until the hip calms down, do more tests and get more opinions. We’ll be able to take our time and get more opinions. Everyone agrees that if there is anything that needs to be done to it surgically, once the hip calms down it’s much better to do the surgery… The recovery time will be much quicker.”
The eventual decision could have serious ramifications on how Ainge approaches the offseason though. Surgery could force Thomas to miss the start of the regular season (depending on the seriousness of the hip procedure) and that might make the Celtics less inclined to make a major splash this offseason. If Thomas isn’t at full strength, it will be harder to make a run at the top of the East.
On the flip side, a rehabbing Thomas may also limit his trade value on the open market, if the team decides to shop him before the final season of his contract. Either way, Boston will need some clarity on this front before they make decision about what pieces fit best across the remainder of the roster.
Which max free agents are worth investing in?
There is no question that the Celtics have their eyes on Gordon Hayward in free agency. The former Butler star and current member of the Utah Jazz is expected to hit the open market in July, and the Celtics will be among a lost list of suitors lining up for the 6-foot-8 small forward. Ainge will need to make a couple of roster moves (via trades and/or waiving players) in order to open up the necessary max salary cap room needed to sign Hayward, but there is a very real chance that Boston’s likely No. 1 target will remain with his original team.
While there are plenty of appealing high-priced upgrades that will be on the open market in free agency, the vast majority of them have question marks. Is Blake Griffin too much of an injury risk to invest in? Is Paul Millsap (age 32) going to be past his prime for most of his next contract? Do any other options push the needle enough toward Boston becoming a true contender? With payroll flexibility about to become a bigger issue for current members of the roster (see question 1), a flashy name might not be the best course of action if Hayward passes on the C’s.
Which recent draft stashes are part of the team’s plan for next season?
With big men Jonas Jerebko, Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk all primed to hit free agency, and the Celtics prioritizing bigger fish in free agency, the team will likely be searching for an influx of fresh bodies for its frontline. One player you can count on making his Celtics debut is Croatian center Ante Zizic. The 6-foot-11 Zizic was the No. 23 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft and held his own during the 2017 EuroLeague season while playing for former Cavs head coach David Blatt.
The tougher conundrum for Boston will be with power forward Guerschon Yabusele, who just underwent surgery to remove bone spurs in his foot. Yabusele put up big numbers in the Chinese Basketball Association but he’s not believed to be as NBA ready as Zizic at this juncture. The Celtics also might not have the salary cap room to add both him and Zizic to the mix, and to target a max free agent without trading other players on the roster. The team will be forced to take all those factors into consideration when determining whether they want Yabusele to start his journey right away or stash him abroad for one more season.
