Everything Celtics fans need to know about the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery
COMMENTARY
The Boston Celtics have the best chance in the NBA to win the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday night, but what does that mean exactly?
To help prepare Celtics fans for what could be a turning point in the franchise’s history, what follows is a guide to the lottery night. We’ll break down everything you need to know: how the lottery works, what Boston’s chances are, and what the implications are for the team moving forward.
Q: How does the lottery work?
A: 14 ping-pong balls, numbered 1-14 are placed in a selection bin. The NBA will select four of these ping-pong balls for each section of the drawing. There are 1,000 possible four-digit combinations of numbers in play for the 14 numbers (the order the balls are selected in doesn’t matter). All of these possible combinations have been distributed among the 14 NBA lottery teams based on their record (see full odds here for every team based on each position). An independent official picks four balls, and the team with that assigned combination gets the first pick. Then, the balls are returned and the process is repeated for the second pick, and then again for the third pick. The drawing ends at that point.
Q: What happens if a team has their four-digit selection picked twice? (i.e. a Celtics combination gets selected for the first pick and again for the second pick?)
A: Once a team’s combination is initially selected, the team is locked into that draft pick slot. If combinations come up again for a later pick, the selection is ignored. The ping-pong balls are returned and another combination is chosen.
Q: How many four-digit combinations do the Celtics have assigned?
A: The Brooklyn Nets finished with the worst record in the NBA, so the Celtics will have the best odds out of any team in the 2017 NBA Lottery after exercising their pick swap with that team. Boston will hold 250 out of a possible 1,000 combinations. This means the Celtics have a 25 percent chance of earning the top pick and can fall no further than No. 4 during the lottery process.
Q: Why can’t the Celtics fall lower than No. 4 in the draft process?
A: The draft lottery is set up so no team can fall further than three slots below its initial spot in the lottery draft order. Once each of the top-3 picks is selected, the rest of the draft order is finalized via the records of the teams that went unpicked in the lottery. Since the Celtics (via Brooklyn) start the lottery in the No. 1 odds slot, only three teams can jump past Boston, even in the worst-case scenario.
Q: What are the odds for each pick the Celtics could finish with?
A: Here’s the full breakdown
1st: 25 percent
2nd: 21.5 percent
3rd: 17.8 percent
4th: 35.7 percent
Q: So the odds are in favor of the Celtics dropping to No. 4 over getting No. 1, even though the Nets have the worst record?
A: Of any specific slot, the Celtics have the best odds (35.7 percent) of landing at No. 4. But, if it makes you feel better, they have a 46.5 percent chance of landing one of the top two selections. The team with the worst record has landed the No. 1 or No. 2 pick in the lottery for the past six seasons.
Q: I’ve also heard the Celtics haven’t had good lottery luck throughout franchise history…is that true?
A: It is. Boston has taken part in the draft lottery 11 times since its creation in 1985. In 10 of those 11 lottery appearances, Boston has maintained its likeliest draft position based on regular-season win-loss records or fallen to a lower position in the draft order due to teams jumping ahead via ping-pong balls or other factors. The one time the Celtics improved their position was in 1987, when they jumped to No. 2 overall (via Seattle’s pick). Boston would ultimately select Len Bias, who tragically passed away just two days after being drafted.
Q: Will we see the lottery drawing live on TV?
A: No, the NBA will hold the proceedings in a private room early Tuesday evening before the results are released live on TV. One representative of each team, as well as selected media, are allowed to watch the selections live, but they can’t relay the results until they are released to the viewing public on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET.
Q: Who will represent the Celtics during lottery night?
A: Co-owner Wyc Grousbeck will be the Celtics’ representative at the team podium on ESPN, while fellow owner Steve Pagliuca will be the team’s representative inside the private room where the ping-pong balls are drawn.
Q: Is there anyway to know how the Celtics’ odds are looking as the lottery results are revealed on TV?
A: Yes! The trick here is to know what the projected draft order (based on record) is heading into the lottery. From there, you can tell if the proceedings are going to plan or not for the Celtics. For example, the Pistons are expected to get the No. 12 pick based on their 37-45 regular season record. On lottery night, the NBA will announce the picks in reverse order, from 14-to-1. If the Pistons don’t show up at the No. 12 pick slot when the envelope is unveiled, that means they have moved into one of the top 3 slots. That jump wouldn’t prevent the Celtics from being awarded one of the top picks, but it would decrease their odds. Here’s the order of teams that you should be hoping to see if you are a Celtics fan.
14. Miami
13. Denver
12. Detroit
11. Charlotte
10. Sacramento (via New Orleans)
9. Dallas
8. Sacramento
7. New York
6. Minnesota
5. Orlando
4. Philadelphia
Q: Anything else I should be watching for?
A: Yes, there’s a lot of drama at stake for several franchises based on their draft position. If the Lakers don’t land in the top 3 (46.9 percent chance), they will lose their pick to the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers also have the right to swap picks with the Sacramento Kings if the Kings jump ahead of them into the top-3. Finally, the Kings will get the New Orleans Pelicans’ first-round pick as long as it doesn’t land in the top 3 (via the DeMarcus Cousins trade).
The teams to watch from Boston’s perspective are the Lakers and Sixers. Losing a first-round draft pick would be a big hit to the Lakers’ quest to rebuild and perhaps damage their chances of acquiring a hometown star like Paul George via trade or free agency. Meanwhile, if the ping-pong balls fall right, the Sixers have the ability to land two draft picks in the top 4. That scenario would give Philadelphia additional value assets this offseason, giving the Celtics potentially another suitor to battle with on the trade market.
Q: Doesn’t this all seem a little convoluted? There has to be a simpler way to manage the draft, right?
A: It is a fair argument. In fact, some teams, including the Celtics, are open to changing it or eliminating it altogether. Celtics assistant general manager Mike Zarren proposed a “draft wheel” a couple years ago that would have eliminated the lottery, but it was voted down by team owners. On the bright side, this crazy process make lottery night an exciting time for fans.
