Should the Celtics be preparing for ‘National TV Rondo’ and the TNT Bulls?
The Celtics may be the Eastern Conference’s No.1 seed. But there are a few strange patterns Boston fans might want to be wary of in their playoff series against the Chicago Bulls.
While many Celtics fans may choose to watch Mike Gorman and Tommy Heinsohn call the game on Comcast SportsNet New England, the first round series will also be broadcast on national television — which brings into play two of the NBA’s more peculiar abnormalities.
The first one is “National TV Rondo,” a term apparently coined by then-Grantland editor — and noted Celtics fan — Bill Simmons. And according to a review of the stats by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, it is very much a thing.
In short, former Celtics-turned-Bulls guard Rajon Rondo plays noticeably better in national games.
As the HASC found in 2013, Rondo’s per-game average in all major statistical categories — points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks — go up when playing on national TV, while his turnover rate even decreased. As ESPN noted in 2012, 14 of Rondo’s 18 triple-doubles had come under the national spotlight.
The fact that most playoff games are nationally broadcast is also reflected in Rondo’s playoff stats. During the regular season, Rondo has averaged 10.7 points, 8.5 assists, and 4.9 rebounds a game. In the playoffs, those averages bump up to 14.4 points, 9.1 assists, and 5.9 rebounds.
Of course, a lot has happened since the heydays of Rondo’s Celtics prime — including, to be fair, 20 more triple-doubles, but also a rather sad decline. His debut season with the Bulls this year has brought near career lows across the board statistically, as well as a some friction in the Chicago locker room..
But the Celtics players still aren’t resting easy.
“He’s always gonna play his best [in big games],” Isaiah Thomas told ESPN earlier this week. “And that’s just me watching him when I was younger and before I got in the NBA. You know, when it counts, he’s gonna be ready and he’s gonna perform.
Avery Bradley, a former teammate of Rondo, concurred.
“I know he’s a true competitor and he’s going to bring his best game in the playoffs,” Bradley said.
There’s another perhaps-more-inexplicable pattern the Celtics may also have to contest with: The so-called TNT Bulls.
Three of the the series’ first four games will be broadcast on TNT (in addition to CSNNE) and for some strange reason, the Chicago Bulls have a 20-game regular season home winning streak in games broadcast on the network.
Fortunately, the Celtics’ have home-court advantage in the series and this, indeed, is the playoffs, and not the regular season. However, the Bulls’ streak suggests that Rondo isn’t the only player on the team who savors the big games. As SB Nation’s Blog a Bull wrote last month, the numbers behind the streak are pretty striking.
“Hopefully, we get in the playoffs and we schedule TNT games,” Rondo told the Chicago Tribune last December.
Well, here we are.
