3 keys to Celtics-Bulls playoff matchup
Boston and Chicago split their four-game series during the regular season.
COMMENTARY
The Chicago Bulls are not your traditional No. 8 seed. They have star power (Jimmy Butler), a wealth of playoff experience (Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo), and they sold valuable rotation pieces (Taj Gibson, Doug McDermott) at the trade deadline.
They have beaten the league’s best (4-0 vs. Cleveland), lost to the league’s worst (Brooklyn, 0-3 vs. Knicks), and have been an inconsistent mess for most of the regular season. Thanks to an easy schedule down the stretch, they were able to close out the year with a 7-2 record that helped them lock up the last spot in the East playoffs.
After splitting four matchups with the Celtics this year, what should fans be watching for as the revamped Bulls come to town this weekend? Here’s a look at three things that will loom large in the first-round showdown.
The Bulls’ suddenly hot 3-point shooting
By almost any metric, the Bulls are not a good shooting team. This is not a surprise to any NBA fan that saw the team’s front office build a flawed backcourt this summer in signing Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade, a pair of subpar 3-point shooters. Combine that with a traditional center with limited range (Robin Lopez) and subpar bench, and you have a team that ranks at the bottom of the league in both field goal percentage (44.4 percent) and 3-point shooting (34.1 percent).
One would have expected the Bulls perimeter shooting to get even worse once the team traded away swingman Doug McDermott at the trade deadline, but that’s been far from the case. Instead, a revitalized Nikola Mirotic has led a resurgent Bulls team to a stellar 38.2 percent clip from beyond the arc since mid-February, the sixth-best mark in the league. While Mirotic has been knocking down an incredible 41.3 percent of his 3’s on 6.5 attempts per game, the bigger surprise has been hot hands from the guards: Rajon Rondo (46.3 percent), Jimmy Butler (43.8 percent) and Jerian Grant (40.5 percent) have all been terrific since the All-Star break from deep. Rookies Denzel Valentine (38.4 percent) and Paul Zipser (37.7 percent) have been above-average as well.
The Celtics are one of the best teams in the league defending the 3-ball, allowing opponents to shoot just 33.2 percent from beyond the arc this season, so they are well positioned to defend these hot hands. The question is whether Brad Stevens and his staff are believers in the Bulls’ shooting improvements of late, or if they will be content to let Chicago hoist long jumpers and regress back to their season mean.
The Celtics’ rebounding problems
As it has in the past two postseasons, rebounding has the potential to be a fatal flaw for this Celtics team. On the surface, this first-round matchup with the Bulls poses a recipe for disaster since you have the fourth-best offensive rebounding team (Chicago) facing off with the fourth-worst defensive rebounding team (Boston). A look back at the head-to-head meetings during the season shows the Bulls averaged 15 offensive rebounds per game against the C’s, a number that would have led the league this season.
It’s important to remember that the majority of those matchups came with Taj Gibson in a Bulls uniform — before the team dealt him away to Oklahoma City at the trade deadline. Since then, the Bulls have been primarily starting Mirotic (3.9 off. rebounding percentage), a player who is far less threatening on the offensive glass than Gibson (8.5 off. rebounding percentag). Due to that swap, the Bulls rank 18th in offensive rebounding percentage since the All-Star break, a major drop off from their season average. That’s good news for a Celtics team that on the whole has managed to control their rebounding woes of late, ranking 13th overall in the league in defensive rebounding percentage since the All-Star break.
That’s not to say rebounding won’t be a problem for the Celtics in this series. Robin Lopez is one of the best offensive rebounders in the league, and the C’s don’t have the size (outside of Tyler Zeller) to match him. The Bulls’ bench bigs (Cristiano Felicio, Bobby Portis) can hit the offensive glass hard as well, while Butler, Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo all have ability to get their hands dirty on the boards too. Still, rebounding is an area that the Celtics should be able to hold their own in more than the numbers would indicate. If they do, given the Bulls’ overall offensive woes (20th in league), it will go a long way toward them winning the series.
Can anyone on the Bulls stop Isaiah Thomas?
This series is set up to be a bit of a rock fight. Both teams have top-10 defenses since the All-Star break, while the Celtics’ offense has regressed quite a bit over the past couple months as their perimeter shooting has taken a dip. The one part of Boston’s attack that has remained consistent though is Isaiah Thomas. He finished as the top scorer in the East, averaging 28.9 points per game while carrying the Celtics to a 53-win season.
In four matchups against the Bulls this year, the 5-foot-9 point guard did not match that kind of production (24.8 ppg) but his efficiency was tremendous. He shot 53.8 percent from the field and 48.4 percent from downtown, his best averages against an opponent he faced four times during the regular season.
The Bulls attempted to slow Thomas down in a couple of their regular-season matchups by placing Butler on him, but that’s a matchup that would leave Chicago vulnerable on the wing. Rondo has never been known for his defense, so it will be interesting to see how short of a leash Fred Hoiberg has with him before going to one of his more longer, more defensive-minded backups in Michael Carter-Williams or Jerian Grant on Thomas. Can the Bulls afford to take a step back with their already subpar offense to corral Thomas? It’s a decision that Hoiberg will be wrestling with game-to-game all series long.
