Ranking the Celtics’ top 20 basketball assets
COMMENTARY
I’ll get the copout out of the way right from the opening tip: This was pleasantly impossible.
Ranking an organization’s personnel is something Pete Abraham has done for years in his coverage of the Red Sox. That annual column always makes for an interesting read and a lively debate.
I figured since the word “assets’’ is inextricably linked to the Celtics these days, it might be fun to try to put some order to theirs. It was fun, but it also came with the realization that there is no obvious and logical order. There are a lot of people having a say in their success.
The Celtics, who conceivably could win the first seed in the Eastern Conference and the No. 1 pick in the draft, have a lot of things going for them right now. They’re winning in the present and set up to win much more in the future. But the people responsible for the success – current and presumed – are varied. Some of them aren’t even Celtics yet.
So this is how I approached it. I kept it to purely basketball personnel, thus excluding owners Wyc Grousbeck and Steve Pagliuca and team president Rich Gotham, among others. They all seem excellent at what they do, but I suspect their most important responsibilities aren’t especially relevant to the on-court product.
I also left out some basketball personnel, including highly-regarded assistant general manager and team counsel Mike Zarren. I don’t have an insider’s read on their impact and I’m not going to pretend to for this exercise.
What that leaves is the fundamental well-known personnel – current players, coaches, and basketball-focused executives, as well as a few outside assets, such as prospects playing elsewhere and draft picks that will be spent in the near future. And it was still a tough exercise.
Keeping age and contract status in mind, I must have ranked and re-ranked the core trio of guards – Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley – a half-dozen times before I settled on the proper order, and I’m still not sure it’s right. I flip-flopped on Danny Ainge or Brad Stevens then flip-flopped again … and that was before the no-win argument with myself about whether management and coaching personnel should rate ahead of those actually playing the games.
20. Amir Johnson: He’s smart and resourceful, but a pending free agent who isn’t worth $12 million a year. I’d take him back at half that.
19. Demetrius Jackson: Dropped 30 with 7 rebounds and 6 assists in a D-League playoff game last Tuesday. He’s signed for three more years, so he’s going to get a chance to be more than, say, the next Phil Pressey.
18. The 2019 first-round pick from the Clippers. This one is top-14 protected in ’19 and ’20, and could end up being a second-rounder in ’22. Might be a decent trade piece.
17. Abdel Nader: The 6-foot-8 forward averaged 21.3 points (on 44.6 percent shooting), 6.2 rebounds and 3.9 assists for the Red Claws this year. I suspect he has some assurances about being on the varsity roster next season, but his defense needs to improve if he’s going to take a role larger than the one James Young is place-holding for him right now.
16. Jordan Mickey: Mechanical as a rusty droid on offense, but his shot-blocking talents will keep him around awhile.
15. Terry Rozier: Fast, fearless, and flawed (he’s shooting just 36.7 percent). Hard to figure where he fits if the first pick this year is another guard, but he is talented. I still think he can be a Robert Pack sequel.
14. Kelly Olynyk: There have been times when he seemed like the Celtics’ second-best scoring option this season. If they are to advance past a round in the playoffs, he’s going to need to knock down open shots. But his confidence seems to come and go (no one upfakes ghosts quite like he does), and his scoring average is actually his lowest since his rookie season. He’s a restricted free agent with a valued skill set, but will consistency ever come?
13. The 2019 first-round pick from the Grizzlies: This pick is top-eight protected in ’19 and top-six protected in ’20, but unprotected in ’21. I imagine they’ll get it sooner than then, but if not, it could turn out to be a jackpot considering Marc Gasol will be 36 then.
12. Guerschon Yabusele. He’s actually the impetus for putting this list together. As I was listening to him put up an 18-9-6 line against Tyler Hansbrough in the Red Claws’ playoff game Monday night, I began wondering where he fits and whether we’re underrating his potential impact. It’s not as if Danny Ainge picked him as a flyer; he was the 16th pick in the ’16 draft. A future fan-favorite.
11. Ante Zizic. Sean Deveney, the excellent NBA writer for the Sporting News, recently quoted an unnamed scout as saying 6-foot-11-inch center from Croatia might be a top-10 pick if he were in this year’s draft. Not bad progress from a supposed project taken 23rd a year ago. It’s always fun when a draft-and-stash goes right. Hopefully he arrives next season and helps aid their rebounding issues. It seems reasonable to expect it.
10. Jae Crowder: I’d call him the ultimate glue guy, but that might do a disservice to his all-around contributions. He’s another relentless defender, and he’s become a more consistent shooter, hitting a career-best 39.8 percent from 3 this season. It seems like fans are always looking for an upgrade, but the Celtics’ brain trust values him tremendously.
9. Avery Bradley: Organize the next three guys any way you want and I won’t argue with you. Some nights Bradley is their best all-around player. Many nights, actually. He’s improved his shooting (39.4 percent from 3-point range this year and 16.4 points per game, both career bests) and is actually a quicker defender than Marcus Smart, as Kyrie Irving found out back in March. But durability remains a question – he’s played 60 games or fewer three times in the past five years. The Celtics couldn’t survive losing him in the playoffs last year. It’s imperative that he stays healthy now.
8. Isaiah Thomas: Pains me not to have him higher. He’s had an offensive season for the ages, averaging 29.1 points per game on 46 percent shooting. His creative ability to play all the angles to finish against taller players is delightful to behold, and he’s made himself into a superb perimeter shooter, even – or especially – on long-range pull-ups. But some of the old skepticisms still follow him. He is a defensive detriment, and even brilliant 5-foot-9-inch shoot-first guards aren’t usually core players on championship teams. His contract is up after next season – as is Bradley’s and Smart’s – and the way Ainge handles that will tell us all we need to know about how the Celtics perceive him in regard to their title aspirations.
7. Marcus Smart: I’m going with Smart ahead of Bradley and Thomas because he’s the youngest (he turned 23 last month), has a knack for ferocious game-altering defensive plays, and is the most likely to be here long-term given Ainge’s appreciation for his playing style. He does need to shoot better, though.
6. Al Horford: Listen, some of the criticism is valid. He does disappear from time to time, and there are times he passes up open looks in search of a better shot that isn’t there. But he brings so much to this team, and it’s not just the subtle stuff like the wide, perfectly timed screens that free up Thomas again and again. He’s a defensive centerpiece, a terrific shooter (albeit with – let’s call it unique – form), probably the best passer on the team, and the culture-setting most respected adult on a roster stocked with conscientious players. Yes, he makes a lot of money. If that affects how you view him, you’re missing out.
5. Next year’s Nets pick: If you could, Brooklyn, please stink to high heavens again in 2017-18. Michael Porter Jr. would look great in green.
4. Jaylen Brown: He’s had his ups and downs, which is to be expected from a 20-year-old rookie with one year of college ball. But he’s demonstrated an amazing capacity to learn, filled in ably when Bradley and Crowder were absent, and those ups tended to result in highlight reel plays that would have been featured on SportsCenter if, you know, SportsCenter still showed highlights.
3. This year’s Nets pick: The Celtics have a 25 percent shot at the top pick and a 65 percent shot at a top three pick. At worst they’ll pick fourth. Whether it’s Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaacs, they will get a superb prospect.
2. Brad Stevens: Name a young coach you’d rather have. In any sport. His best attribute among many is his knack for putting talented but flawed players in a position of strength, whether it’s Jordan Crawford, Evan Turner, Isaiah Thomas, or Avery Bradley (many coaches would try to pigeonhole him as point guard because of his height). I can’t wait to see what he does when he has a superstar.
1. Danny Ainge: Doc Rivers’s starters on this date four years ago were Brandon Bass, Jeff Green, Avery Bradley, Jordan Crawford, and Courtney Lee. Yes, the Celtics rested Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce that night … but can you believe that was just four years ago? Since then, the Celtics team president stole Thomas and Crowder in trades, drafted Smart and Brown, hired Stevens out of Butler when it seemed like there was actually some risk to doing so, and pulled off a heist of Auerbachian proportions with the Nets that should set up the next great Celtics team. If you don’t recognize how remarkably difficult this is, you either don’t pay close attention to the NBA or take your cues from willfully obtuse sports radio hosts. Probably both.
