Breaking down Celtics’ playoff scenarios and tiebreakers: Could they fall below No. 2 seed?
The magic number for Boston to clinch the No. 2 seed in the East is two.
COMMENTARY
The dreams of landing the top seed in the Eastern Conference likely vanished for the Celtics after they fell to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night. Now, after a second straight loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday night, the No. 2 seed is no longer a given either. Boston woke up on Saturday clinging to a 1.5 game lead over the Toronto Raptors and a 2-game lead over the Washington Wizards with just three games remaining in the regular season.
The C’s magic number (combination of Boston wins and Toronto/Washington losses) to clinch the No. 2 seed is just two, but it’s a very real possibility that the race for that spot could come down to next Wednesday on the final night of the regular season. Let’s examine the remaining schedules for all three East contenders and see how various tiebreaker scenarios may play out in the coming weeks.
Current standings
- Cleveland 51-28
- Boston 50-29 (1 GB)
- Toronto 49-31 (2.5 GB)
- Washington 48-31 (3 GB)
Tiebreaker scenarios
Cavs over Celtics (3-1 edge in season series):
Cleveland’s magic number (Cleveland wins + Boston losses) to clinch the top seed is down to 2. An ugly loss against the Hawks by the Cavs on Friday night has left open the door the Celtics to push for the No. 1 seed for the time being. However, there’s a good chance the Cavs will be able to rest their stars during the regular-season finale against Toronto if they win one of their next two games and the Celtics stumble in Charlotte. That could come back to bite the C’s if the Green don’t have the No. 2 seed wrapped up by that point.
Raptors over Celtics (3-1 edge in season series)
Wizards over Celtics (conference record against playoff teams): Teams rarely have to go through four or five tiebreakers to settle a tie, but that’s exactly what could happen if these two ended up neck and neck at the end of the regular season. Boston and Washington split the season series (2-2) and would have matching conference records if they do end up tied (since Boston is currently also up by two games in the conference record). Washington has won the Southeast Division, so they would be pushed ahead of Boston on account of that if the Raptors finished ahead of the Celtics in the standings. If not, the next tiebreaker that applies is each team’s conference record against playoff teams, an area that the Celtics haven’t fared well in all season. Even though the playoff field in the East probably won’t be set until the final night of the regular season, the Wizards will still have an edge (15-10) over the C’s (11-13) even if the eight East playoff teams change slightly.
Three-way tiebreaker scenarios
Raptors over Wizards over Celtics:
The Raptors would have the edge over the Wizards (2-1 season series edge) and the Wizards would get the nod over the Celtics based on the division winner criteria described above. This finish would put the Celtics as the No. 4 seed in the East.
Remaining schedules
Cavaliers: @ ATL, @ MIA, vs. TORCeltics: @ CHA, vs. BKN, vs. MILRaptors: @ NYK, @ CLEWizards: vs. MIA, @ DET, @ MIA Analysis:
A look at the remaining opponents for Toronto and Washington demonstrates why the pressure is on the Celtics to close out this season strong. While the Wizards will face one team (Miami) that is still fighting for a postseason spot this weekend, the next opponents for Toronto and Washington (Detroit, New York) have nothing to play for.
The Raptors are a bigger threat overall to Boston to win out given the way they’ve been playing lately (winners of 9 of 11 overall with Kyle Lowry now back healthy to boot). Combine that with the strong odds that Cleveland rests its stars in the regular-season finale and they are a good bet to go undefeated the rest of the way. The road is not as easy for the Wizards, since the playoff picture at the bottom of the East is quite the mess, making it likely the Heat will be fighting for a playoff spot in Game 82.
On the flip side, the Celtics will be facing the Hornets in what is essentially an elimination game for Charlotte on Saturday, so that won’t be a layup. The Nets have won eight of 15 overall and the Bucks could be playing for their postseason lives on Wednesday night as well. Boston will be favored in all three games, but with the way this team has been playing lately, two wins in these games is not necessarily a given.
Brad Stevens says he thought he found some positives in the loss to the Hawks on Thursday night. In order to avoid another ugly finish to the regular season, he needs to get his team back on the track for its final three regular season games.
