Ranking the Celtics’ potential first-round playoff matchups
Which team would be the biggest problem for Boston?
COMMENTARY
There are less than two weeks remaining in the NBA regular season, and the Eastern Conference playoff picture is still a huge mess. The Celtics are in a crowded fight for one of the top two seeds in the East, but the race in the bottom half of the conference is even more wide open. Five teams are separated by just three games in the overall standings, making it anyone’s guess who the Celtics will face in the first round of the postseason.
What’s the best outcome Brad Stevens and company can hope for when the dust settles? We examined all the teams in the mix and how they individually matchup with the green to determine a best-case scenario for the C’s as they attempt to win their first postseason series of the Stevens era.
The following list ranks the potential first-round opponents from toughest to easiest for Boston:
1. Milwaukee Bucks (39-36)
Head-to-head:
1-1
Matchups remaining: April 12
Off. rating: 107.8 (11th)
Def. rating: 106.6 (20th)
Net rating: +1.1 (10th)
Overview: The Celtics may have done themselves a favor by losing to the Bucks on Wednesday night, since that outcome only strengthened the odds that Milwaukee winds up with the fifth or sixth seed in the East. The Bucks lost Jabari Parker to an ACL tear in February, but they also added sharpshooting wing Khris Middleton (hamstring) back to the lineup and haven’t looked too bad since. They’ve got the second-most wins in the league (14) since the All-Star break and are a matchup nightmare for the Celtics at multiple positions with their superior length.
There’s a healthy mix here of young talent (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Malcolm Brogdon, Middleton) and veterans with playoff experience (Matthew Dellavedova, Jason Terry) that should pose a significant challenge for any first-round opponent. Their only glaring weakness (defensive rebounding) isn’t an area that the Celtics have the personnel to take advantage of either. Boston would still be favored in the series, but it wouldn’t be a “gimme” by any means. Luckily, Milwaukee’s strong finishing kick and favorable remaining schedule should keep them out of the 7th and 8th seeds.
2. Atlanta Hawks (39-36)
Head-to-head:
1-1
Matchups remaining: April 6
Off. rating: 102.1 (28th)
Def. rating: 103.3 (4th)
Net rating: -1.2 (19th)
Overview: The Celtics have seen more than their fair share of the Hawks in the first round during the past decade (three matchups since 2007). Another one this year is very much in play with Atlanta falling in the standings, losing eight of 10 overall since Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore went down with injuries.
The intrigue of Al Horford facing off with his former teammates would receive plenty of national attention, as would the budding rivalry between Isaiah Thomas and Dennis Schroder. Still, from a matchups standpoint, Atlanta’s frontcourt would pose plenty of problems on the rebounding front for Boston, thanks to the Millsap/Dwight Howard duo. That pair and a number of versatile wings (Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha) could suffocate Boston’s high-powered offensive attack yet again, like we saw last season. The Hawks don’t have the shooters (25th in 3-point percentage) to spread the floor, setting the stage for what could be an ugly, low-scoring series. With no significant talent gap to capitalize on, that’s a scenario the Celtics would be wise to avoid.
3. Miami Heat (37-38)
Head-to-head:
Celtics 4-0
Matchups remaining: None
Off. rating: 104.9 (17th)
Def. rating: 104.0 (5th)
Net rating: +0.9 (11th)
Overview: In December, the Heat looked like a candidate to challenge the Nets for the worst record in the NBA. Incredibly, Erik Spoelstra has turned the tide despite a bevy of injuries to his core, leading the Heat back to respectability with a 26-8 record in the second half of the season.
The key to the turnaround has been a tenacious defense (5th in the NBA) and a revitalized offense (10th since All-Star break) led by Goran Dragic and a mix of free-agent castoffs who have thrived in bigger roles in Miami (James Johnson, Dion Waiters). A trio of gritty guards (Dragic, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson) would be a thorn in the side of the Celtics’ backcourt in any theoretical matchup. Boston also has no answer for Hassan Whiteside on the glass and would have to counter that attack by trying to drag the big man out of the paint with sharpshooting bigs (Kelly Olynyk, Jonas Jerebko).
The head-to-head results make it look like the Celtics would have a considerable edge here, but three of those matchups came in the first half of the season, when the Heat were still finding their identity. If Waiters returns from an ankle injury in time for the postseason, this could be another defensive grind for Boston over a seven-game series.
4. Indiana Pacers (37-38)
Head-to-head:
Celtics 3-0
Matchups remaining: None
Off. rating: 105.5 (15th)
Def. rating: 106.2 (18th)
Net rating: -0.7 (17th)
Overview: There’s no question that the Pacers would have the best player in a hypothetical series with Boston in Paul George. However, that’s where a list of advantages for Indiana ends in a potential matchup. Everything else about this team right now is average, which matches their overall record. Larry Bird tried to adjust Indy’s playing style with a more offensive-minded head coach in Nate McMillan, but the results haven’t been much of an upgrade.
Outside of George and point guard Jeff Teague, there isn’t a lot of reliable offensive talent on the roster. Aging veterans like Monta Ellis and Al Jefferson have dragged the Pacers down on both ends of the floor, stripping Indiana of the tough defensive identity it held under Frank Vogel. Simply put, outside of George, there are no glaring matchup issues for Boston 1-5 either. Indiana is one of the few teams that is as bad at rebounding as the Celtics (bottom-5 overall), making that area a push as well. It’s possible George could win a game or two with a standout performance, but the Celtics are well positioned to make quick work of Indy, like they did during the regular season.
5. Chicago Bulls (36-39)
Head-to-head:
2-2
Matchups remaining: None
Off. rating: 104.4 (20th)
Def. rating: 105.7 (14th)
Net rating: -1.3 (20th)
Overview: There may not be a tougher team in the league to figure out than Chicago. After trading away two of their key rotation players (Taj Gibson, Doug McDermott) at the trade deadline, the Bulls have hung around the playoff picture, largely due to the mediocre play of the teams around them. From a talent standpoint, there is still a respectable core in place with Jimmy Butler, Robin Lopez, and Dwyane Wade, but Wade has not been with the team for weeks after suffering a broken elbow.
The shooting guard is questionable to return for the postseason, but even if he does, this isn’t a showdown that should pose problems for Boston. The Bulls are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league, with Rajon Rondo serving as the best 3-point shooter on the team right now after McDermott was dealt. Boston had tough battles with Chicago before the All-Star break thanks to the likes of Gibson, but his veteran savvy has been replaced in the lineup by Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic, a significant downgrade.
The chance to see Rondo and Isaiah Thomas go head-to-head would make for intriguing storylines, but assuming the C’s can keep Butler in check, this is the matchup Celtics fans should be rooting for.
