How the Celtics can (realistically) catch the Cavaliers for top seed in East
Boston has legitimate reason to set its sights higher than just holding onto the No. 2 seed.
COMMENTARYThere are competitive races in the playoff picture in both conferences, but none are intriguing as the three-horse race at the top of the East. The defending champions still hold a comfortable edge over the Celtics and Wizards in the standings, but the race for the No. 1 seed is far from over. With Cleveland facing a challenging stretch to close out the regular season, what are the odds of the Celtics or Wizards catching them? Let’s examine the remaining schedules to determine if the C’s should have their eyes on more than just the No. 2 seed. Current East standings
- Cavs 45-22
- Celtics 43-25 (2.5 games behind)
- Wizards 41-26 (4 GB)
Head-to-head tiebreakers (Second tiebreaker would be conference record if season series is tied)
- CLE leads BOS (2-1 with one game remaining in Boston)
- WAS leads BOS (2-1 with one game remaining in Boston)
- CLE owns tiebreaker over WAS (2-0 lead with one game remaining)
Conference record standings
- Cavs 30-11
- Celtics 27-12 (2 GB)
- Wizards 25-16 (5 GB)
Cavs (45-22)
Games remaining:
15 (Home: 6 Away: 9)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 12
Games against .500+ teams: 8
Analysis: The Cavs had been reeling for almost a month now, losing six of eight games before righting the ship at home with two straight wins this week. They rank 25th in the league in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, while leaning heavily on big minutes from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. The surprise early return from a knee injury by Kevin Love Thursday night was a welcome sight for Cavs fans, but he’ll be limited with a minutes restriction for the near future. Kyle Korver has missed time with a foot injury as well, and both Irving and Iman Shumpert suffered minor injuries on Thursday night.
These injury woes have opened the door for some team to make a run at the No. 1 seed, particularly if the Cavs opt for rest over seeding down the stretch. Do the Celtics have a legitimate chance of catching the Cavs? The answer is maybe, despite the considerable gap in the standings with just 15 games remaining. Cleveland has very few “gimme” games on the schedule and have road trips looming that include contests against the Clippers and Spurs.
The Cavs already own the tiebreaker against the Wizards, but the Celtics have a chance to tie up the season series in Boston later this month. With both teams separated by just two games in conference record (the second tiebreaker), the Celtics may have an opening if Cleveland can’t stay consistent and play .650 basketball the rest of the way. If they go 10-5 or better in their final 15 games, they should be safe. Otherwise, things could get interesting in the final week of the season.
Celtics (43-25)
Games remaining:
14 (Home: 9 Away: 5)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 8
Games against .500+ teams: 4
Analysis: Talk about a dream situation for Brad Stevens to close out the season. Not only do the Celtics not have to leave the Eastern time zone for the next month, they have just two back-to-backs remaining, leaving open the door for some practice time and ample rest ahead of the postseason. Isaiah Thomas will take advantage of that by resting his bruised right knee on the team’s upcoming two-game road trip, both contests Boston should be able to win without him.
In fact, the five road games left are the easiest slate the C’s could ask for with three potential gimmes (NY, BKN, PHI) among them. While there will be a number of competitive teams visiting TD Garden, most are fighting for spots at the bottom of the East playoff picture (MIL x 2, MIA, IND). Those are all games a healthy Boston team can win.
It’s safe to assume the Celtics will be favored in at least 11 of their remaining 14 matchups, so the opportunity is there to put some pressure on Cleveland if they take care of business. The main wild card will be how they fare in the final head-to-head matchups against the Cavs and Wizards. If the C’s lose those contests, they will also lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to both squads. That might not matter for the No. 2 seed, but it would be a formidable obstacle to overcome against Cleveland while already facing a three-game gap in the loss column. Realistically, the Celtics probably have to go 11-3 (including a win over CLE) to give themselves a chance. That’s certainly a reasonable expectation, but hiccups at home against underdogs can’t happen.
Wizards (41-26)
Games remaining:
15 (Home: 5 Away: 10)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 12
Games against .500+ teams: 7
Analysis: The Wizards have arguably the toughest schedule of any NBA team over the final month and a half of the season, but that hasn’t deterred their climb up the East standings just yet. After going 4-1 over just seven days during a brutal Western Conference road swing, they did slip up against the Dallas Mavericks at home on Wednesday night.
The biggest challenge in their remaining schedule comes with a second West Coast swing later in March that starts with a trip to Cleveland. With contests looming against the Warriors, Clippers and Jazz during that stretch, a 1-4 or 2-3 trip is a real possibility. The rest of the calendar is very manageable, with no elite opponents outside of Boston.
While the Wizards have been one of the better teams in the NBA for the last couple months, they’ve been feasting on an easier schedule to put together that mark. It’s hard to envision them closing a four-game deficit against the Cavs with their upcoming slate (they already lost the CLE-WAS tiebreaker) and they might not have much of a chance against Boston either for the No. 2 seed unless they win their March 20 matchup against the Celtics at the Garden to take the season series.
Final thoughts: While the schedule certainly favors the Celtics making a serious run at the No. 1 seed, there are a number of variables in play down the stretch that can’t be accounted for yet, such as opponents resting players. The return of Love to the lineup two weeks ahead of schedule for the Cavs looms large too.
The bottom line here for the C’s is that they’ve been taking care of business against inferior opponents (30-10 vs. sub .500 teams) all year. If that trend continues and they pull off wins against the Wizards and Cavs at home, the No. 1 seed could very well be theirs. While a deep run in the Eastern Conference playoffs has always been the hope this season for Boston, the chance of achieving that with the benefit of home-court advantage is a very real possibility in the coming weeks.
