30 thoughts for 30 days until the NBA trade deadline
COMMENTARY
Thirty days from today, at 3 p.m. EST, the NBA trade deadline will pass us by. That means Danny Ainge and the Celtics have 30 days to make a deal until they can’t make another for months. In the meantime, rumors will fly, tweets will be retweeted and everyone will lose their minds—but for what?
The deal that lands a superstar and sends a shiver down LeBron’s spine?
A deal that takes a step back and positions Boston to strike once LeBron’s spine can no longer carry the load?
What’s with all this talk about LeBron’s spine?
At any rate, there’s a lot to think about and here are 30 such things – one for every day until the deadline.
Stage 1: A Brief History
1. This is Danny Ainge’s 14th deadline as Celtics boss, which makes him the NBA’s fourth-longest tenured executive behind Pat Riley, Mitch Kupchak and RC Buford. Over time, Ainge has pulled the trigger on nearly 50 trades of varying significance and complexity. He’s traded Hall of Famers like Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. He’s traded guys you’ve never heard of like Albert Miralles and Malcolm Thomas. He’s traded Doc Rivers and Austin Rivers. Antoine Walker is the only player Ainge has traded twice. In 14 years, Fab Melo is the only player Ainge traded shortly after that player concussed himself walking through a doorway.
2. For all those trades, only 11 took place on Deadline Day, and those 11 trades were spread out over only seven deadlines. To translate, Ainge has made at least one deal at the deadline seven times. Six times, the deadline passed without a peep. So, based on history, the odds of Ainge making a deal at this year’s deadline are about the same as DeAndre Jordan hitting a free throw.
3. Ainge’s first ever deadline deal was relatively insignificant for the Celtics but demonstrated an important point about the way he approaches trades. This was February 19, 2004, when Danny jumped in as the third team in a three-way deal that sent Rasheed Wallace to the Pistons, and at the time many wondered why Ainge would facilitate a trade that helped a competitor get so much better. The addition of Wallace propelled the Pistons to the title. But the reality, then and now, is Ainge doesn’t care how a trade affects any other team. If the Celtics get better, it’s worth it. In this case, that Wallace trade netted Boston the pick they used on Tony Allen.
The same mindset was in play in July 2014, when the Cavs were desperate to clear space for LeBron’s homecoming, and Danny jumped into a three-way deal with the Nets and Cavs that netted Tyler Zeller, Marcus Thornton and a future first round pick. At the time, many wondered about Ainge’s motivation. Why facilitate LeBron’s return to Cleveland? Was it a jab at Pat Riley? A ploy to break up the Heat? What would he ever do with Marcus Thornton, Tyler Zeller and a future late first round pick?
More on that in a second.
4. Ainge’s most controversial deadline deal will now and hopefully forever be the 2011 shocker that sent Kendrick Perkins, Nate Robinson and the trampled remains of Ubuntu to the Thunder for Nenad Kristic and Jeff Green.
5. The best deadline deal of Ainge’s tenure? That’s easy. That’s two year ago, February 2015, when he took Marcus Thornton and the future first rounder from the aforementioned Cleveland/Nets three-way and sent them to Phoenix for a moody, undersized journeyman point guard named Isaiah Thomas.
Today that undersized point guard averages 29 points a night, is on the verge of making his second straight All Star Game — and the next month is all about finding him some help.
Stage 2: The Superstars
The Celtics haven’t given up on landing a superstar. It won’t be easy and it’s far more likely they’ll come up short, but it won’t be for lack of trying. In the process, here are five guys who will be discussed—
6. Anthony Davis: This is the deal that should happen. There’s no superstar in the league more perfectly poised to be swapped for a pair of could-be-future-superstars and whatever else they want. An unsettled ownership and convoluted front office makes it really hard for New Orleans to get their ducks in a row for a deal so bold and obviously controversial, but that won’t stop the Celtics from asking, and asking again until the Pelicans collectively block every phone number in the state of Massachusetts.
7. Paul George: This looked more promising a month or so ago when George was kicking basketballs into the stands and venting to the media like he was on his therapist’s couch. Either way, he’s the perfect fit for this Celtics team – a range shooting four who can defend basically four positions and score like few else in the game – and despite last summer’s efforts, it’s unlikely the Pacers can build a championship core around him.
But is Larry Bird willing to hit the reset button? Is he willing to make a deal with and potentially look silly at the expense of his pesky little brother Danny? The only hope is Larry watches a ton of college basketball this next month, sees something in one of these players he can’t resist, swallows some pride and gives his old buddy a call.
8. Jimmy Butler: Butler doesn’t fit the Celtics quite as well as George but the asking price will likely be just as steep – if there’s an asking price at all. But with the mess Chicago made this summer, and with just about every other Bull reportedly on the block, and with Fred Hoiberg not looking long for their sidelines, Chicago should at least listen to what Ainge might offer for their most valuable asset.
9. DeMarcus Cousins: One reason it makes so little sense for the Kings to trade Cousins for future picks is they’ll have to use those draft picks. In Cousins, they already have a superstar talent, gifted to them because the Sixers (Evan Turner), Nets (Derrick Favors) and Minnesota (Wesley Johnson) were scared away by Cousins’s still lingering issues. But let’s say the Kings trade Cousins for the first pick in this summer’s draft, and have to choose from this untouched pool of potentially game-changing talent. Is there any faith they’ll get it right? Owner Vivek Ranadivé is just as likely to swoop in and demand the Kings draft a kid he saw play for two minutes in last year’s The Basketball Tournament.
10. Carmelo Anthony: You only trade for Carmelo Anthony if he’ll put you over the top. In related news, Carmelo Anthony will not put the Celtics over the top.
Stage 3: On the Block
The Nets picks are Boston’s most attractive assets, but assuming they’re not going to blow this up (aka trade Isaiah and Horford and everyone and anyone) just yet, which players are most likely to go?
11. Amir Johnson: It might not make sense for a team that struggles so much with rebounding to part with one of the roster’s few genuine big men – but Amir is the new Theo Ratliff. His expiring $12M contract may be a very necessary component in any substantial deal.
12. Tyler Zeller/Jonas Jerebko: Amir makes $12M this year while Zeller and Jerebko make $13M combined, so including them together is another option. It would hurt to see Jonas go. You get the sense he could play a solid role on a great team. But the only thing that hurts more than the thought of Jonas leaving is the thought of Ainge on the phone saying, “Thanks, Larry. Appreciate the offer. We’d love Paul George, but don’t think we can part with Jerebko.”
13. Terry Rozier: There’s a crowded backcourt, a non-existent frontcourt and Rozier’s shown just enough to sell on potential.
14. Avery Bradley: This would be a shocker, but thinking big picture the Celtics have choices to make. They aren’t going to keep Isaiah, Marcus AND Avery around for the long term. Someone’s the odd man out. And with Marcus still making strides, Isaiah still pushing the limits of reality, and Avery (while playing the best basketball of his life) still having a hard time consistently staying on the court, he might be the one if the right deal presents itself.
15. Jaylen Brown/Marcus Smart: Both guys look ripe to be a big part of the Celtics future, but it will take more than picks to pull off a true blockbuster. The Celtics will need that Al Jefferson type – a tangible young talent to sweeten the pot.
Stage 4: The Young Guns
If Boston can’t find that superstar of today, what about that superstar of tomorrow.
16. Jabari Parker: It’s unlikely the Bucks would pull the trigger on a Parker deal yet, but the situation in Milwaukee is a bit volatile, and with Jason Kidd in charge, “more volatile” is a very real option. Parker had an issue earlier this week when he was benched for speaking to the media about a “players only” meeting. There have been questions in the past about him fitting in with that team. Ainge has never made a secret about his love for Parker and the kid has shown the potential to fulfill Ainge’s wildest dreams.
17. CJ McCollum: This might sound nuts but the Blazers are in trouble. For some reason they gave Evan Turner that big contract (knowing how much Damian Lillard and McCollum have the ball) on top of all the money guaranteed to Meyers Leonard, Mo Harkless and Allen Crabbe. They have Lillard and McCollum maxed out on extensions as well but something has to give. They need to make a move. Dishing CJ and breaking up one of the best backcourts in the league would be wild, but it might take something wild to save the direction this team is headed.
18. Zach LaVine: The Tom Thibodeau Era is off to a disastrous start in Minnesota, and with Karl Anthony Townes established as the clear-cut center piece, Minnesota might need to make a decision between Andrew Wiggins and LaVine. Do they need to make that decision now? No, and even then it won’t be easy. LaVine has real superstar potential. But that doesn’t mean Ainge shouldn’t try, especially when he has a few guys – Bradley, Jae Crowder, and even Smart – who bring a little more of that Thibodeau mentality to the court.
19/20. Nerlens Noel/Jahlil Okafor: They’re both young, they’re probably not superstars, but they have talent that could thrive in the right situation. With Noel’s restricted status this summer, and Okafor’s total flop of a first few seasons, Ainge shouldn’t give up much for either guy, but he should certainly investigate what it would take and really ponder whether a heavy dose of Vitamin Brad might be the secret to turning their careers around.
Stage 5: The Rebounders
If there are no current or future superstars for the taking, the Celtics should at least find some size and strength and rebounding to help offset their current lack of size and strength and rebounding.
21. Kenneth Faried: He’s not what he used to be but he’s still active, still averaging 12.7 rebounds per 36 minutes, and would undoubtedly be inspired by landing in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoffs. He’s on the books for two more years which isn’t great for flexibility, but $13M a year is a bargain in today’s NBA.
22. Taj Gibson: With all the talk about all the Bulls who might be traded, there hasn’t been too much about Gibson, who is a free agent this summer. But assuming the Celtics wouldn’t have to give up too much, Gibson would be a perfect fit – a fierce, defensive and rebounding minded veteran with legitimate playoff experience. He doesn’t have the kind of range that Boston desires but he can do so many other things so well.
23. Jusuf Nurkic: He and Nikola Jokic were once mentioned in the same breath, but with Jokic’s emergence as one of the best young big men in basketball, Nurkic is very much available. At 7-0 and 280 pounds, he has the size and strength and attitude to really set a tone and bust some heads in a playoff series. He could be Boston’s Russian Kendrick Perkins – only better.
24. Andrew Bogut: He’s reportedly available, but can’t be counted on to stay healthy, and doesn’t have a personality that you’d think will click with this current Celtics’ vibe.
25. Jeff Withey: The campaign to bring the 26-year-old seven-footer, who continues to waste away on the Jazz bench, won’t stop until he ends up in green. He can rebound. He can block shots. He doesn’t have to play any more than a healthy Tyler Zeller does now but will do much more of what Boston desperately needs.
Stage 6: Five Final Random Questions
26. Would you trade Brad Stevens for a superstar?
This is a wild one, and totally hypothetical, but kind of a fun exercise. Let’s say Ainge calls Pelicans GM Dell Demps again and says, “Dell, for the last time, is there anything we can do to get Anthony Davis?” Dell says, “Sure, we want both No. 1 picks and Brad Stevens?”
Would you do it? Would you do it for Paul George? How much is Brad Stevens worth?
27. Isaiah and Marcus, Isaiah and Avery, or Avery and Marcus?
Discussed this before, and obviously so much can change with this year’s point guard heavy draft, but let’s say you can only pick two of the three guards to move forward with. Who is it? What’s the best combination? Where does Danny go and how long can he wait to choose before missing an opportunity to cash in?
28. Can Kelly Olynyk be who they need him to be?
Olynyk can be a difference maker when his head is on straight and his confidence is steady, but three years later and that confidence – while still there in spurts – is about as reliable as the President’s twitter account.
At what point do you stop waiting and try to sell that potential to someone else?
29. If Jaylen is part of the long-term plan, what’s better for his long-term progress?
Unless he finds himself in a deal for a superstar, Brown is part of the Celtics plan. They want him to be as good as possible as quickly as possible. So, what’s best for his long-term development – playing 10+ minutes a night for a playoff team, or playing 30 minutes a night for a team firmly focused on the future?
30. Where is Boston’s focus?
It’s the question we’ve asked since this rebuild took a crazy turn two years ago, when Boston stumbled on Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas and went from rebuilding to – “oh wow, they’re much better much faster than anyone thought.” With the Brooklyn picks in the holster, they’ve had the luxury of being patient – of rebuilding while not having to rebuild. But the time to make a decision on which path they’ll take is fast approaching. We all know they need a superstar, but at what point do they concede that the right superstar might not exist or might not be available. Right now, they’re still in a prime position, sitting up comfortably on a branch, overlooking the rest of the league and waiting for the right time to strike. But the branch is getting shaky. The wind is starting to blow. If they can’t climb higher over the next month, they might not have any choice but to jump down and re-group. They might not have any choice but to finally make a choice.
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