Would a Nerlens Noel trade be worth the cost to Celtics?
The 6-foot-11 big man is looking for a way out of logjam in Philadelphia.
COMMENTARYReports dating back to the 2015 NBA Draft have connected the Celtics to Sixers forward Nerlens Noel. Those Boston rumblings have quieted in recent months, but the same can not be said for the trade rumors swirling around Noel in Philadelphia. The 22-year-old forward is unhappy with his role within the overstocked Sixers frontcourt and he’s been open about his desire to play elsewhere. Sixers management has reportedly not been shy about searching out a deal for Noel or one of his frontcourt mates (Jahlil Okafor), but the team has thus far been adamant about not selling low on either prospect despite the glut in the depth chart. In fact, 76ers president of basketball operations and general manager Bryan Colangelo spoke last week about how the public spat between Noel, head coach Brett Brown and the front office has probably hurt the team’s efforts to find the forward a new home. “The stuff that came out subsequent to that in terms of discussion about wanting to be traded, I can’t say that was the best course of action by [Noel] to take,” Colangelo said. “In fact, I would say it was ill-advised. It was ill-advised not only for his own value but probably for our ability to have him involved in a deal.” With No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons potentially returning in early 2017, there’s no end to the challenging rotation situation in sight for Noel in Philly. Could the Celtics take another close look at the defensive-minded big man? And would it be worth sacrificing some future assets for the former No. 6 overall pick? Let’s examine the various factors in play to help us assess if Noel would be a fit that makes sense for the 2016-17. Noel’s ContractNoel’s contract situation is one of the biggest obstacles that the Sixers’ brass face in finding fair value for the big man. He’s in the final year of his rookie deal, earning a reasonable $4.4 million in 2016-17. The salary is not the problem; the issue is that Noel is set to become a restricted free agent in July. The Sixers will have the right to match any deal Noel agrees to this summer, assuming they give him a qualifying offer before the start of free agency. The problem for Philadelphia is that most opposing teams don’t expect the Sixers to ante up big money to keep Noel long-term. With Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Okafor, Dario Saric and Robert Covington already under contract for next year, it doesn’t make much sense for them to invest $10+ million per year for a player who doesn’t necessarily fit well within that group. If the Celtics (or another team) want him, there’s a good chance they would be able to pry him away from the Sixers in free agency (who would probably prefer to spend their cap room elsewhere). That reality makes it less enticing for teams to offer much in an in-season trade for the Kentucky product. Noel the PlayerDefensively, there’s a lot to like about the 6-foot-11 Noel. At 228 pounds, he’s a spry big who would provide the Celtics with a big boost on the defensive glass. He has grabbed 9.3 rebounds per 36 minutes played in his career and that would be the best mark on the Celtics’ roster this year. For a team that is ranked 29th in the league in defensive rebounding rate, Noel would help the C’s frontline hold their own against bigger teams most nights. The Malden native not only has the frame to help on the glass, but he’s speedy enough to keep pace with smaller players on the perimeter, as well. His 1.7 steals per game in his career is one of the best marks among active big men. He also served as a deterring presence in the paint by posting 1.7 blocks per game in his career and limiting his men to shoot 53 percent from inside six feet during the 2015-16 season, seven points better than league average. The question Ainge will have to answer on Noel is whether that defensive upside is high enough to outweigh his offensive warts. The third-year Sixer shot just 24.3 percent outside of the paint last season, making him a tough fit for head coach Brad Stevens’ pace and space offense. Al Horford is enough of a shooting threat as a big to keep opposing defenses honest, but Boston’s spacing will suffer dramatically if Noel were to share the floor with another non-shooter (Smart, Rozier, Johnson).Would Noel Be Worth the Cost?The one thing the Celtics have going for them in this equation is that they have the personnel (excess guards) that make a swap make sense on paper. However, from a logistical standpoint, sacrificing any significant value does not make sense for Noel right now from Boston’s perspective. The team has positioned itself once again to have salary cap space for another free agent this summer and adding Noel (and his $10.9 offseason cap hold) would throw a wrench in that master plan. By bringing him in now, the Celtics would have to move on from him (or others) in order to clear the necessary cap room to sign a max player this summer. Additionally, it remains unclear whether an offensively limited player like Noel would be a smart long-term investment for the Celtics. The team has targeted primarily stretch bigs during free agency and the draft in recent years, and Noel does not fit that mold. Paying $10+ million annually for a guy who probably won’t even be closing games does not seem like an allocation of resources that makes sense for Ainge. That’s not to say the Celtics shouldn’t inquire on a player like Noel. Sacrificing a minor asset (such as Terry Rozier) and/or a protected first-round pick to get a look at the 6-11 forward in the C’s system wouldn’t be a bad idea, especially since it would improve Boston’s postseason ceiling this year. However, that’s exactly the kind of buy-low offer that the Sixers have continually passed on for their lottery bigs over the last couple years. Unless Colangelo lowers his asking price, it’s unlikely Noel would be worth the cost to the Celtics. All statistical and salary information is from Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted
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