Terry Rozier has emerged as one of the Celtics’ rocks off the bench
Terry Rozier was fairly anonymous for most of last season. The reasons for that can be very chicken-and-egg-ish. Was he not getting enough opportunity because he played poorly, or did he play poorly because he wasn’t getting enough opportunities? More and more, it’s looking like the latter is true, as this season, he has been anything but anonymous. He is playing more, and has been one of the rocks on the Celtics’ bench.
Let’s back up to last season, which was Rozier’s rookie season. Things started very slowly for Rozier. He only played one minute and 58 seconds in the team’s first three games, and he didn’t hit a shot until the fifth game of the season, when he went 2-for-8 from the floor – hardly a coming-out party. Things would continue like that for awhile. He only played in six of the team’s first 12 games, and would shoot 5-for-27 in those games.
He would get into the next eight games, but his shooting wasn’t any better or his playing time any more regular. Following that eighth game, which was Dec. 7 in New Orleans, Rozier would only play in eight of Boston’s next 40 games. By that point, it was March. Rozier got in a minute and change in the next two games, bringing us to March 11th. Here’s his breakdown from before and after that game, and we’ll include the playoffs and this season as well.
Obviously, these are miniscule samples, but you can see that Rozier has improved, which is encouraging, and he’s already taken more shots this season than he did in all of last season and the playoffs combined. Let’s add some context. Obviously that .224 field goal percentage is sticking out like a sore thumb, but just how sore? Last season, 374 NBA players attempted at least 100 field goals. Of them, Rozier’s overall .274 FG% ranked dead last, and by a wide margin. The person in next-to-last place shot .305. Rozier’s run toward the end of the season helped, but he still was at the bottom of the barrel. The same is true if you want to use a more advanced metric like effective field goal percentage (eFG%). In fact, the gulf is even wider (.302 for Rozier, .354 for next-to-last).
In other words, Rozier couldn’t shoot. It made playing him difficult, because in Marcus Smart the team already had a backup guard who wasn’t shooting well. But as he has steadily improved, so has his playing time, and his presence on the team.
This season is only 24 games old, but we’re already seeing some trends emerge. Only four players have suited up for every game – Avery Bradley, Jaylen Brown, Amir Johnson and Rozier. And only Bradley and Rozier have logged at least 10 minutes in every game. In these past three games, with Isaiah Thomas out, Rozier has logged even heavier minutes – 26, 25 and a season-high 29 minutes on Sunday in Oklahoma City.
So far this season, 249 players have attempted at least 100 field goals. Rozier is still toward the bottom, but with a .385 FG% that ranks 219th overall, he is no longer at the bottom.
I’m focusing on Rozier’s shooting because the rest of his game is what you expect and need from a backup point guard. He handles the ball well, and chips in in every phase of the game, if not at an elite level, then certainly at a level that shows he doesn’t have any other distinct weaknesses. And he is especially good at handling the ball. Of the 228 players who have played at least 400 minutes this season, Rozier’s TOV% ranks 27th-best (TOV%, or turnover percentage, being an estimate of turnovers committed per 100 plays). His 8.0 TOV% is also best on the Celtics (again, min. 400 MP) – Thomas clocks in at 9.0, and Bradley at 10.1.
Rozier is still a backup, and if he can’t further improve his shooting stroke, he may be destined to be a backup throughout his career. But there are worse fates, and he still has time to improve his shooting – he’s only 22. But with the improvements to his shooting that he has made, he has become a valuable member of the team. He doesn’t log a ton of minutes per game, but by being the rock on the bench, he is logging a great deal of minutes overall – he has played six more total minutes than Al Horford has so far and he is easily the minutes played leader among Celtics who have not yet started a game.
At this time a year ago, Terry Rozier was mostly anonymous. Now, if you don’t know his name, you had better, because he’s become an important part of the 2016-17 Celtics.
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