Will the Celtics retain any of their own free agents?
Jared Sullinger, Evan Turner and Tyler Zeller will hit the open market on July 1.
COMMENTARY
The Celtics only have three players (Evan Turner, Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller) that will hit the open market when free agency begins July 1, but it remains a mystery whether Danny Ainge will elect to bring back any members of the trio. All three veterans have been critical members of the team’s rotation at various times over the past two seasons, but a rising salary cap and a crowded depth chart present a cloudy future for each.
In order to gauge what may come next for each player, let’s take an individual look at the soon-to-be free agents and handicap their odds of remaining in Boston long-term.
Restricted free agents (Sullinger, Zeller)
Overview: Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald reported Wednesday that the Celtics extended a qualifying offer to Sullinger and Zeller by the June 30 deadline, making both restricted free agents on July 1. The restricted label will give the Celtics the ability to match any signed offer by either player with another team within three days. Each player’s qualifying offer counts against the salary cap until he signs a new contract, but the Celtics have the ability to rescind the qualifying offer at any point during free agency, if they want to clear up additional salary cap space. Let’s now take a closer look at the situation of each player.
Jared Sullinger
Age: 24
Qualifying offer: $4.4 million
Notable 2015-16 stats: 10.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.3 apg, 0.9 spg 43.5% FG, 28.2% 3FG
Overview: While injuries ruined the final month of the Celtics’ season for Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley, and Jae Crowder, Sullinger’s lackluster play in the playoffs can be mainly blamed on being exposed against superior competition (Paul Millsap). The power forward’s athletic and shooting limitations were on full display against the Hawks, washing away the good vibes from an above-average 2015-16 campaign.
For the first time in his career, Sullinger stayed healthy (81 games) and he was arguably the most consistent performer up front for Stevens all year, posting 24 double-doubles. The fourth-year forward also turned himself into an elite rebounder (top 15 in NBA in rebounding percentage), a crucial component to Boston’s 48 win season. Despite these strides, the undersized big man failed to improve his shooting from the field and 3-point range, limiting his potential upside.
All things considered, the Celtics can’t afford to let Sullinger go without finding a superb rebounder to replace him. If the Celtics swing and miss on some of the premier big men in free agency, they may be best served to bring Sullinger back on a short-term deal. There’s always the possibility a team will throw a long-term deal at Sullinger that the Celtics will avoid matching to maintain flexibility, but it’s hard to envision many teams wanting to take that risk with Sullinger’s weight and injury history.
Odds of returning to Celtics: 60 percent
Tyler Zeller
Age: 26
Qualifying offer: $3.7 million
Notable 2015-16 stats: 6.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.5 apg, 1.7 spg 47.6% FG
Overview: Distributing minutes last season was an issue from Day 1 in the Celtics’ frontcourt and Zeller proved to be the odd man out in that equation most nights. Despite being healthy for all of 2015-16, Zeller played a career-low 60 games and saw the floor in just 11 minutes per contest. The lack of consistent playing time kept the former starter from finding his rhythm during a contract year, as his shooting percentage plummeted six points from 2014-15. Given his lack of outside shooting range and Stevens’ propensity to go small, opportunities for big men were reduced as the season went on and Zeller did little to prove himself worthy of more minutes.
With Johnson and Olynyk likely to return, and the Celtics on the hunt for some free agent upgrades in the frontcourt, Zeller’s odds of returning to Boston seem slim. There won’t be room for both him and Sullinger on the depth chart yet again in all likelihood, but he’ll be a cheaper alternative to the 24-year-old forward. If Ainge passes on the bigger names and overpaying for keeping Sullinger, Zeller could be back on a short-term deal, which would help him rebuild his value.
Odds of returning to Celtics: 30 percent
Unrestricted free agent
Evan Turner
Age: 27
Notable 2015-16 stats: 10.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.0 spg, 45.6% FG, 24.1% 3PT
Overview: Turner did a terrific job rehabilitating his value and image in Boston over the past two seasons after a tough stint with the Indiana Pacers. He settled well into a sixth man role for the Celtics last season, filling up the box score in all areas while providing much-needed shot creation ability for the second unit.
It’s that very skill that will make him a sought after free agent this summer on the open market. Ainge has his sights set on bigger pieces for the moment, but Turner’s departure would leave a sizable void in Boston’s second unit. Unfortunately for Turner, the Celtics may have found a replacement on the wing for the veteran in No. 3 overall pick Jaylen Brown. While the rookie won’t be able to replicate Turner’s offense out of the gate, he does provide some of the size and defensive versatility that made Turner so much of a weapon last season.
Barring Ainge clearing out some of glut in the backcourt, it’s hard to envision the Celtics spending the big money needed to keep Turner with so many alternatives already under contract.
Odds of returning to Celtics: 20 percent
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