Everything the Celtics could (and should) do on NBA Draft night
Boston's eight-part guide to the 2016 NBA Draft.
COMMENTARY
The NBA Draft kicks off on Thursday night in Brooklyn and, as usual, there are more than a few rumors buzzing around Danny Ainge and the Celtics. From what we’ve heard, the Celtics’ president of basketball operations has spent the better part of the last six weeks trying to trade the No. 3 pick. The Celtics are linked to every available star this side of Dino Radja.
Of course, you’re never sure what to believe when it comes to offseason rumors. A lot of that stuff is leaked with nefarious intentions, or reported out of context, or turns out to be just a flat-out lie. And that will only get worse as the draft gets closer. So, as it does, and players continue to change teams, and THINGS START TO GET REAL, let’s take a quick step back and get a handle on where the Celtics stand.
We’ll break it down in eight parts:
Part 1: The Stash
The Celtics have eight picks in the 2016 NBA Draft, and it’s unlikely they’ll use all of them. It’s also possible they use none of them. It’s also possible that Ainge transforms into Bill Belichick, flips eight picks this year into 12 picks next year and lures Celtics fans into the depths of insanity. But for now here’s Boston’s full slate of picks:
No. 3: This was acquired from the Nets along with a few other first rounders, a substantial trade exception and the naming rights to Billy King’s next born grandson.
No. 16: This is the first rounder that Boston acquired for Rajon Rondo along with Jae Crowder, Brandan Wright, a 2016 second rounder and a $13 million exception.
No. 23: This is Boston’s own pick, which they earned for finishing tied for the seventh-best record in the NBA. Or as The Sports Hub’s Tony Massarotti would call it: “the 23rd-worst record in the NBA.”
No. 31: This is the first pick of the second round and it came to Boston from Philadelphia, by way of Miami, in exchange for the Celtics sending Jordan Crawford to Golden State.
No. 35: From Minnesota, via Phoenix, for Brandan Wright.
No. 45: The aforementioned second-round pick from the Rondo trade.
No. 51: Another second rounder, again from Miami, courtesy of the Jordan Crawford three-way.
No. 58: In September 2014, the Celtics traded Keith Bogans to Cleveland to facilitate the Cavs carving out enough room to re-sign LeBron James. Two years later, the Cavs are champs and LeBron has changed the face of Cleveland sports. But tonight in Brooklyn, when the NBA’s deputy commissioner calls the third-to-last pick to the podium, GUESS which team of “champions” will be left in the cold?
Part 2: The Dream
This much is clear: There’s nothing Ainge would love more than to use this No. 3 pick as the centerpiece in a trade that brings a proven star to Boston. First of all, trades are right in Ainge’s wheelhouse. A good, firm deal is his spirit animal. Basically, there are three ways to build and rebuild an NBA contender — through the draft, in free agency and/or via trades — and Ainge is always most effective working the phones. That’s how he landed Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett; Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder. All four Nets picks came over in a trade.
But now that it’s time to use the picks, Ainge wants to trade them again. He’s always down to swap potential for something real.
Part 3: The Crapshoot
One reason Ainge would rather trade a draft pick than use it is he knows that the NBA draft is a crapshoot. This is especially true for the third pick in a two-star draft. For all the hours spent sitting at college games, watching film and devouring analytics, NBA execs are pretty much throwing darts on draft night. Even if they’re sharp enough to hit the board in the general vicinity of where they’re aiming, the “20” and the “1” are still only centimeters apart, and separated by subtleties we barely understand. In the end, more than anything, it’s random. The difference between draft success and failure is often one giant, complicated stroke of luck.
For instance, it’s funny how people talk about Golden State like they’re the NBA Draft whisperers for grabbing Steph Curry with the seventh pick in 2009, Klay Thompson with the 11th pick in 2011 and Draymond Green in the second round in 2012. They built a title on draft steals, so they must know something the others don’t. But here’s the question: Would the Warriors have taken Steph in the top three that year, or was their success more a product of other teams’ failures? Would they have drafted Klay in the top 5? For that matter, they had two first-round picks in 2012, so why did they pass twice on Draymond? What did or didn’t they really know?
Furthermore, why did Golden State draft Ekpe Udoh at No. 6 in 2010, when Greg Monroe, Gordon Hayward and Paul George were on the board? Why then, sitting at No. 7 in 2012, and with a huge void in the paint, did the Warriors draft Harrison Barnes over Andre Drummond?
It’s because no one really knows what they’re doing. Even if you get your guy, there’s no guarantee he’s your guy. So, if given the chance, Ainge will always trade the player who might become the next Jimmy Butler (and then some) for the player who already is Jimmy Butler. He doesn’t want to plant and nurture another young seed and spend a couple years watching the grass grow. Instead, Ainge believes he has a first-class jet gathering dust in his Waltham hanger and needs a readymade, high-powered engine to take this party above and beyond.
Part 4: The Targets
The craziest thing about the Celtics’ situation is that, because of their flexibility and willingness to cast a wide net, they have their hands in just about everything. They’re talking with just about everyone. For that reason, when there’s a trade of any kind, it’s like The Adjustment Bureau where one move triggers another move and then triggers another move. Meanwhile, the league keeps chugging along on an intertwined, ever-changing grid.
The Celtics are in the middle of it all, reacting to every little update.
Take, for example, the two trades that happened in the NBA on Wednesday. First, there was the three-way deal between the Hawks, Pacers and Jazz where Atlanta swapped Jeff Teague for the No. 12 pick, the Jazz swapped the No. 12 pick for George Hill and the Pacers swapped George Hill for Jeff Teague.
Presumably, the Celtics didn’t know this was about to happen before it happened. At the time, they were probably knee deep in something else. But once this trade went down, the Celtics had no choice but to follow the potential chain reaction and reevaluate everything. So now what’s this mean for Atlanta? Are they taking a step back? If they’re getting rid of Teague, does that mean they won’t re-sign Al Horford or overpay Kent Bazemore? And if they don’t sign either of those guys, that means they’re probably ready to rebuild, right? Which means they probably don’t need the last few years of Paul Millsap’s prime, right? So why not send him to Boston for the No. 3 pick, a top-5 pick in next year’s stacked draft and their choice of Jae Crowder or Marcus Smart?
Of course, then if you’re going to consider a play for Millsap, you have to start looking for another star that would complement him. Like, what about Jimmy Butler? He might actually be perfect. Are there enough assets to trade for both?
But then just as you’re developing that train of thought, the Bulls come out of nowhere and trade Derrick Rose to the Knicks. Now everything changes again. What’s that mean for Butler? Are the Bulls his team now or no one’s team? Is Chicago ready to build around him or more likely to blow the whole thing up? Either way, the world is a different place than it was a mere five minutes ago. The entire landscape has changed. And it will keep changing in real time for the entirety of Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the Celtics will keep on juggling a thousand balls at once, and just hope that one of them falls in a way that lends itself to a little star power arriving in Boston, whether its in the form of Hayward, Butler, Millsap, DeMarcus Cousins, Victor Oladipo, Danilo Gallinari, Jabari Parker, or Khris Middleton, or even James Harden, Blake Griffin or Kevin Love.
Part 5: The Educated Guess
Obviously, Ainge can only make a trade if someone is willing to trade with him, and that means finding someone pay his typically steep asking price. If you don’t know, Ainge is that guy in your fantasy football league that spends all season upgrading his entire roster on a week-to-week basis, and constantly bombards you with trade offers until you finally breakdown just to shut him up. But, at this point, enough executives have been embarrassed by Ainge that some — like Michael Jordan last summer — appear to turn him down on principle. At the very least, you don’t get the sense that anyone is truly excited to negotiate with Ainge. Some days it probably feels like a chore.
This is all to say that there’s a pretty decent chance that the Celtics make their pick at No. 3.
Right now, I guess we’ve narrowed it down to Jaylen Brown, Dragan Bender, Jamal Murray, Marquese Chriss, Buddy Hield or Kris Dunn.
For what it’s worth, I’m not prepared to make any claims about any of these guys. I didn’t watch enough college basketball. I really didn’t watch enough Israeli league. On the flip side, I’ll go as far as to say that the Celtics have spent more time studying the six players mentioned above than I’ve studied any single player over the course of my entire life. Not only that but the Celtics met all these kids, and interviewed these kids, and had long conversations with people, basketball and otherwise, who know them on a level that a 90-second YouTube video just can’t capture.
This is my way of saying that if the Celtics make a pick at No. 3, I’m going to assume that it’s the right pick. Not only based on what they know, but more importantly on what we don’t.
Part 6: The Needs
So what are the Celtics looking for in a player? What holes are they looking to fill through the draft or a draft-day trade?
Let’s do three.
First, the player the Celtics need is still the best available player. For now, fit doesn’t matter. If it comes down to the draft, they should look at those six players, pick the guy with the highest ceiling and move forward with full confidence that they’ll help him reach it. If it comes down to a trade, and there’s somehow more than one decent offer on Ainge’s plate, the decision comes down to max stardom. Plain and simple: Who is the better player? Who is the bigger star? Which one is set for the longest run among the best players in the league?
Second, the Celtics need an active presence in the paint. It doesn’t have to be a classic “rim protector” or even someone taller than, say, 6’9. I’m talking about the bigger, stronger, longer likes of Kenneth Faried or Tristan Thompson. Maybe not a natural shot blocker but someone whose presence will be felt and athleticism will be feared. Imagine a younger Amir Johnson, just faster and stronger. Imagine the anti-Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk. Think Jordan Mickey, but more polished. Basically, we’re talking about someone who will affect the game in transition, on the block and at the rim, the same way that Smart and Bradley do on the perimeter.
Finally, the Celtics need shooters because everyone needs shooters. It remains to be seen how much of Jae Crowder’s playoff shooting woes were a result of his ankle injury, or if Olynyk will ever pull it together long enough to make an impact. Bottom line: The Celtics were 28th in three-point percentage last year and that’s not good enough. They ranked 27th two years ago, and 28th the year before that. This a problem. It’s amazing that Celtics coach Brad Stevens has been as successful as he’s been with no outside shooting, rim protection or any semblance of an athletic front court.
Part 7: The Other Seven
There’s obviously a lot of talk about the No. 3 pick because right now it’s the only thing that makes sense. The only thing we know for sure in this crazy world is that at some point the Celtics are going to be on the clock, with Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons off the board. What they do next — who they pick or where they send the pick — will shape the course of the entire draft. Right now, it’s hard to even see anything after that third pick because everything beyond it is so cloudy.
But assuming we make to the other side, it will be fun to watch the Celtics get creative with their final seven picks. They’ll hopefully take some chances, and swing for the fences; maybe grab a fascinating foreign player or two and let them keep growing on the other side of the world. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them offer No. 16, No. 23 and whatever else to move up into the top 10 — especially if Marquees Chriss lingers on the board. It could be like what happened last year with Justise Winslow, but this year’s asking price shouldn’t be quite as crazy considering the Jazz just parted with the No. 12 pick for one season of George Hill.
Part 8: The Objective
Finally, let’s wrap up this long, twisted look at the Celtics’ long, twisted existence with one short and simple question: What’s Danny Ainge trying to accomplish tonight? If there was one mantra; just one sentence that he could use to help spread his draft message and unify the masses, what would he say?
What does he believe?
I can’t answer that last question, but I think the message is obvious and the goal is clear. WINNING? Nope. REVENGE? Nope.
Patience?
You got it, as boring as that it is.
Right now, the worst thing the Celtics could do is make a move just to make a move, or pull the trigger on a trade just for the sake of trading. Basically, anything that results in the Celtics compromising what they really believe is bad news. That would be a really bad sign. And speaking of bad, do you hear that buzzing? Where’s that coming from, Waltham?
Oh, that’s right.
More rumors.
Better buckle up.
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