Harrison Barnes, the Celtics, and trying to decipher Danny Ainge’s plans
The draft is 15 days away, free-agency begins next month, and the possibilities for the Celtics remain abundant
COMMENTARY
No one outside of Danny Ainge’s inner circle and perhaps a few trusted Chipotle employees has a clue about what the Celtics’ president of basketball operations wants to do to enhance his team this offseason, though we can all safely assume taking a meeting with Kevin Durant is at the top of the checklist.
Not even Ainge knows right now what he will do. Certainly he has his preferences regarding free-agency, potential trades, and how to deploy the Celtics’ eight draft choices. But there are so many variables that depend on the whims and decisions of other players and executives that the way this crucial offseason ultimately shakes out may be stunningly different from how anyone – Ainge included – envisions it shaking out at this moment.
He doesn’t just need a Plan B. He may need a Plan ZZ. Maybe even Plan Triple Z. He will need many plans.
That’s not going to stop us from speculating, of course, and perhaps even deluding ourselves into believing we have a clue what is ahead in the Summer of Durant. The draft is June 23. Free agency begins July 1, though players cannot sign until July 8. And already some rumors and daydreams – Hey, let’s get Jimmy Butler from the Bulls! They won’t mind! – are already growing stale. They’ll be interesting again only when based in reality rather than rumor.
All we can do right now is embrace the mystery while also scouring for clues in Ainge’s history, especially regarding players in whom they have shown previous interest. That would begin with Durant, obviously. I will always believe he would have been Ainge’s choice over Greg Oden in 2007 had the ping-pong balls bounced the Celtics’ way. There is no reason to believe Durant is anything other than the No. 1 priority, given that he’s one of the league’s top five players, a basketball prototype as a scorer, and at least generally aware and admiring of what the Celtics are trying to build.
Bill Simmons made a compelling case on The Ringer on why Durant might not return to Oklahoma City – Nike is the team to which he will be most loyal — but it would seem the odds still favor a return. Should he choose to leave, wily Pat Riley in Miami worries me as a warm-weather spoiler of Boston’s basketball dreams, and there will be many, many other willing suitors. Even as the Warriors approach their formal coronation as a team for all-time, the chatter that Durant could end up there, forming a Super Team with an already super team, refuses to go away.
Which opens up – presumably, of course – another possibility. Warriors forward Harrison Barnes will be a restricted free-agent not long after the Warriors’ parade — presumably, again — is over. He’s 24 years old, well-rounded, versatile, talented, occasionally underwhelming, and often overlooked on a star-studded roster. If Durant comes to Oakland, Barnes goes, something the latter understands, as relayed by NBA.com’s Scott Howard-Cooper over the weekend.
“It’s out of my control,” Barnes said. “People say, ‘Do you want to be here in Golden State?’ A lot of it is, look, I love Golden State. I’d love to be here. But there’s also some other factors that factor into that, you know what I’m saying?”
That other factor is the factor: Durant. And I can’t help but wonder this: If Durant replaces Barnes in Golden State, does Barnes replace Durant as the No. 1 player the Celtics covet? There is some history – at the 2012-13 trading deadline, there were reports that the Warriors turned down an offer of Paul Pierce for Barnes and an expiring contract (most likely Andris Biedrins.)
It’s possible that Ainge’s perspective on Barnes has changed in three years; at his most frustrating moments, Barnes can seem like a newer-model Jeff Green. But he’s also may be a top-billing talent who has been lost in a supporting role because of all of his gifted and charismatic cast mates. I’d bet the Celtics like him, a lot.
As far as the players the Celtics like in this draft, in which they pick third, 16th, 23d, and also own five second-rounders … I mean, I’m not betting on any of that. Who knows? Not a soul, and that’s confirmed by the various semi-informed mock drafts. Chad Ford has them taking Kris Dunn with the No. 3 pick. NBADraft.net goes for Buddy Hield. DraftExpress predicts its Marquese Criss. I have a hunch about Jamal Murray. NBA.com’s “consensus” mock draft believes its Dragan Bender. If they keep the pick, there will be some serious suspense when they’re on the clock.
There will be players in this draft beyond consensus top-two picks Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram who turn out to be All-Stars and franchise cornerstones. While it’s not imperative that he finds the best remaining player in this draft – let alone one who may outperform Simmons or Ingram in the pros – it sure would be helpful in a couple of ways if he finds someone who ends up as one of the, say, five best players to come from this draft.
Not only would that outcome give the Celtics one more asset and perhaps even a cornerstone, but it would silence those who mistakenly or deliberately believe that Ainge is not one of the more adept talent evaluators in the league.
You’ve heard them, the revisionist historians and Ainge draft doubters with 110 percent hindsight occasionally will check in at this address to howl about the star players who have been chosen after the Celtics have picked in recent years.
This ignores that Ainge’s record for finding at the very least quality, helpful players no matter where he is choosing is very good. It also deliberately ignores that the draft in essence is an exercise in speculation.
Every GM misses from time to time because there are so many variables that go into whether a pick can succeed. Even those who know basketball best, who have made it their life’s work, don’t really know who will blossom and who will wither.
Such obvious logic doesn’t stop people from howling that Ainge should have taken, say, Giannis Antetokounmpo with the 13th pick in the 2014 draft rather than Kelly Olynyk. Sure, it would have been cool, in retrospect, to see the Greek Freak end up here. But he was 18 at the time and coming off a season in which he averaged 9.5 points per game for Filathlitikos in the Greek A2 League. Predicting what he would be beyond an athletic marvel was difficult even for those talent evaluators who truly are experts, just as it is for Bender this year.
I suppose it’s easy for a Celtics fan to lament the players they have passed up – hey, I’m with you on JaJuan Johnson over just about anyone who went after him in 2011, especially Butler. But a more interesting question to me is whether they would have taken someone like the Thunder’s Steven Adams had he still been on the board rather than Olynyk in ’13. (He went with the previous pick.) Hell, I was bummed the Celtics ended up with Marcus Smart at No. 6 overall rather than Dante Exum, who went fifth to Utah, in the ’14 draft.
The draft is not always about who they took or passed up to me. Sometimes it’s about who they really liked but couldn’t quite get. And sometimes it’s about hitting the jackpot.
In free agency and the draft, here’s hoping that the Celtics do end up with the players they genuinely like best this time around. That begins with Durant. But it doesn’t end with him. The draft is 15 days away. I can’t wait for the rest of the plans to be revealed.
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