Celtics’ draft lottery luck is what Danny Ainge makes of it
COMMENTARY
In a back room at Barclays Center on Tuesday night — presumably around the corner from Brooklyn Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov’s private massage parlor and down the hall from the dungeon where he kept former general manager Billy King — a lottery machine will start spitting out ping-pong balls and change the course of NBA history. When the machine stops, the Boston Celtics will be left facing one of two alternate realities:
In the first, they walk away with the No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick and life is good. In this case, they can draft Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram or shop the promise of either to any team with a superstar and a pulse. They can call the Bulls and try to pry away Jimmy Butler without giving up Jae Crowder. They can call the Kings and make a pitch for DeMarcus Cousins. They can call the Pacers about Paul George. Yeah, that might sound far fetched, but you’re telling me that Pacers president Larry Bird wouldn’t at least consider trading George for Brandon Ingram or Ben Simmons, plus a Top 3 pick in the super-stacked 2017 draft and a Top 5 pick in 2018?
Of course, we don’t know what would come of these discussions, but in this scenario the six weeks between the lottery and the draft will be a great time to be a Celtics fan. It will be a great time for the Celtics. Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge will walk around with a grin wider than Jared Sullinger’s backside and his chest puffed out to Rhode Island. Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck will set up camp inside the Sports Hub studio and spend off hours walking through Faneuil Hall screaming, “OK, who wants an interview?” Celtics coach Brad Stevens will unleash an emphatic fist pump and go back to watching film. This is what happens when everything falls into place.
But then there’s that second reality, and according to a devil called math this one is far more likely: There’s only a 31.1 percent chance that the Celtics land a top two pick on Tuesday night. That leaves the other 68.9 percent spread out across picks 3-6. The most likely landing spot is No. 5 (26.5 percent), and then No. 4 (22.5) and then No. 3 (15.6) and then No. 6 (four percent). Those picks present different potential and opportunities, but for the immediate future they fall into the same general category: Disappointment.
In that first scenario, the Celtics are in a position of power, dangling a top two pick in front of slap-happy executives. In this second scenario, Ainge becomes a car salesman struggling to make his quota, desperately calling GMs who would rather be doing anything else, and over-excitedly asking questions like: “What can I do today to get you in this No. 3 pick?”
Of course, we don’t know what would come of those discussions either, but in this scenario the six weeks between the lottery and the draft will be a less than ideal time to be a Celtics fan. It will be a less than ideal time for the Celtics. There will be a lot of talk about a stalled rebuild, questions about how (or if) the Celtics can get better, and all the excitement that surrounds having the third, fourth or fifth pick in a two-star draft. “Is it time to panic? Did Ainge overplay his hand? You know, I told you this was all a mistake, Mike. Look at Pierce and Garnett – they’re still playing! They should still be here! I mean all this hoopla for all these years and they get Dragan Bender? Who is Dragan Bender? I’ve never even heard of the guy — he can’t be good. I’ve seen enough, Mike. I’ve seen enough. These guys are toast. The window is CLOSED!”
So, yeah, those are two options that we might wake up to on Wednesday morning — two very alternate realities — and here’s the worst part: It’s out of our control. It’s out of everyone’s control. And I mean everyone. You, me, Danny Ainge, Brad Stevens, Wyc Grousbeck, Vitaly Potapenko, Alaa Abdelnaby. We’re all in the same boat. Our fate belongs to the universe. It’s all riding on 14 ping-pong balls bouncing around a plastic bubble like 14 little Jokers, waiting to incite chaos and watch the NBA burn. That’s the lottery in a nutshell. We can talk forever about the math and the odds but there’s no point because the lottery is the honey badger and the lottery don’t care.
Last year was the first time in 11 years that the team with the worst overall record landed the No. 1 overall pick. The team with the second-worst record hasn’t won the lottery since the 76ers snatched up Allen Iverson in 1996. That’s 20 years ago, and over those 20 years the team with the worst record has only won the lottery three times. That’s the same number of wins as the fifth-worst record. Meanwhile the seventh- and ninth-worst records have each won twice. The fourth-, sixth- and eighth-worst records have each won once. The third-worst record has won six times over the last 20 years. That’s basically a dynasty. And while you might look at that and think “Ooh, the third-best odds? The Celtics have the third-best odds! This is good.” — it doesn’t matter. The lottery doesn’t care about history. It has no memory. There’s no karma. It’s all random. And that’s the worst, especially in this media climate.
On Wednesday, Ainge will be a genius or a fool and for no other reason than “because” — because four consecutive ping-pong balls were sucked into a plastic tube. Because he got lucky, or unlucky. And that’s too bad. And there’s probably no stopping it. There will be takes and they will be blazing.
But just for fun, just so I can wake up on Wednesday, look in the mirror, give a little flex and know that I tried, here are a few quotes and thoughts about luck, life, basketball and the NBA Draft.
“Here’s the thing about luck . . . you don’t know if it’s good or bad until you have some perspective.” – Alice Hoffman
In 1995, the Minnesota Timberwolves had the third-worst record, but were knocked down to No. 5 in the lottery. Then they watched three power forwards (Joe Smith, Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace) plus Jerry Stackhouse fall off the board before Kevin Garnett fell into their laps. In 1998, the Clippers had the third-worst record, won the lottery and drafted Michael Olowokandi. That same year, the Raptors had the second-worst record, fell to fourth in the lottery, drafted Antawn Jamison and flipped him straight up for Vince Carter.
“I think we consider too much the luck of the early bird and not enough the bad luck of the early worm.” ― Franklin D. Roosevelt
In 2003, the Pistons jumped from sixth in the lottery to second in the draft and took Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. In 2005, the Hornets fell from second to fourth and watched Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams and Deron Williams disappear and leave them with stuck with Chris Paul.
“Nobody gets justice. People only get good luck or bad luck.” – Orson Welles
In 2006, the Blazers had the worst record in the NBA and then the worst luck in the lottery. Andrea Bargnani went first overall on draft day, meanwhile Portland used the No. 4 pick on Tyrus Thomas and then traded him for LaMarcus Aldridge. The next year, the Blazers had the seventh-worst record and the won the most important NBA Lottery since LeBron. Then they drafted Greg Oden.
“You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from.”― Cormac McCarthy
In 2008, the Sonics/Thunder fell from second in the lottery to fourth in the draft and grabbed Russell Westbrook. In 2009, the Grizzlies jumped from sixth to second and landed Hasheem Thabeet. In 2010, the Kings fell from third to fifth and found DeMarcus Cousins.
“Remember that sometimes not getting what you want is a wonderful stroke of luck.” ― Dalai Lama XIV
OK, finally let’s bring it back to the last time the Celtics found themselves where they are right now, among the three teams with the best chance to win the top pick in a draft that features two clear cut stars; when for one brief moment Ainge and Co. were leaning hard on luck to help turn their franchise around and luck chose to slap them hard across the face with a spike-studded leather glove. You remember how that felt. You remember the things that you said. You remember all the obituaries written that next morning.
“Shallow men believe in luck or in circumstance. Strong men believe in cause and effect.” ― Ralph Waldo Emerson
And you remember what happened on draft lottery night in 2007. You remember what happened the rest of that offseason. You remember that confetti-filled scene at the Garden, 13 months after bottoming out, when the Celtics were suddenly on top of the world.
So you know that while the ping-pong balls might change the course of NBA history on Tuesday night, they won’t change the Celtics’ ability to re-write it.
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