Trading for Dwight Howard isn’t worth risk for Celtics
COMMENTARY
Few teams in the NBA are better positioned to make a blockbuster trade in the next couple of weeks than the Boston Celtics. Danny Ainge, the Celtics’ president of basketball operations, has amassed a nice collection of young players, plus more draft picks than he will likely use himself over the next few seasons. With Boston’s rebuild in full swing, the time has come for the team to start putting some of those assets to use.
One player the Celtics could be interested in acquiring in exchange for some of those assets is Rockets center Dwight Howard. Frank Isola of the New York Daily Newsreported Wednesday that the Celtics, “have engaged the Houston Rockets in talks’’ about a deal for the big man.
The 6-foot-11 center would certainly provide Boston with a major boost in star power, but does he make sense for the franchise over the long haul?
Let’s take a closer look at Howard and the logistics of a possible deal to determine whether a blockbuster swap makes sense for the Celtics:
THE CONTRACT
Howard is the fifth highest-paid player in the NBA this season, earning $22.4 million in the third season of a four-year deal signed with Houston in the summer of 2013. Thanks to a player option for the 2016-17 season in his contract and a skyrocketing salary cap expected next summer thanks to the NBA’s new TV deal, the 30-year-old is likely to become a free agent after this season.
As long as he remains healthy, Howard is poised to top the salary of $23.4 million attached to his 2016-17 player option and gain the benefit of long-term security by entering free agency and allowing teams with salary cap room to battle for his services. The Celtics or any other team interested in trading for the big man must be alert to the fact that any potential trade in the coming weeks could be merely for a rental instead of a long-term addition.
THE PLAYER
In his 12th NBA season, Howard still remains one of the best all-around big men in the league. He doesn’t have the athleticism that we saw in Orlando early in his career, but he is a guaranteed double-double virtually every night he takes the floor.
The eight-time All-Star is averaging 14.4 points and 11.8 rebounds this year while anchoring a Houston defense that ranks as one of the worst in the NBA. Houston’s defensive issues do not lie with the former No. 1 pick, however. Howard is surrounded by mostly weak perimeter defenders, notably James Harden.
In a place like Boston with talented perimeter defenders like Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley slowing down scorers, Howard’s defensive job would become a lot easier. With the Celtics, he’d immediately upgrade what is already one of the NBA’s best defenses as a legitimate rim-protector. On the offensive end, Howard’s rolling ability at the rim would be a nice fit with Isaiah Thomas or Evan Turner in attacking opposing defenses in the pick-and-roll.
With that said, there are still plenty of reasons to have reservations about Howard as a player. First and foremost are the injuries. Howard played just 41 games last year due to knee and back ailments and has already missed 10 contests this year. With more than 30,000 career minutes logged, the wear and tear Howard has endured in recent years should make teams like Boston nervous about his long-term prognosis.
Free throw shooting (57.2 percent in his career) for Howard is another concern, as is his overall lack of shooting range. For a Celtics’ offense that relies on plenty of pace and space, Howard isn’t exactly the ideal fit. Behind the scenes, there is a track record of issues with Howard’s maturity that can’t be ignored either.
WOULD HOWARD BE WORTH THE PRICE TAG?
As with any deal, it all depends on the cost. Going back to his days working in the Celtics’ front office, Rockets general manager Daryl Morey has a strong relationship with Ainge. After an underwhelming first half of the season by the Rockets in a loaded Western Conference, Morey may see dealing Howard as an opportunity to fetch some assets for a player the team doesn’t want to re-invest in this offseason anyway.
So what would the Celtics have to ante up for a player like Howard on an expiring deal? A fair starting point would seem to be one of the Brooklyn first-round picks (beyond 2016) and/or one of the Boston’s young, controlled pieces.
Below market contracts such as Avery Bradley or Jae Crowder would provide Houston’s perimeter defense with a noteworthy, economical boost. Adding David Lee’s expiring contract worth $15 million to any deal could provide the salary filler needed to make the money match for both sides.
Would Boston be willing to roll the dice with key assets like that? On the one hand, acquiring Howard would make the Celtics a relevant contender in the Eastern Conference for this season. Cleveland would remain the clear favorite in the East, but Howard would give Boston a chance in a potential playoff matchup by helping to keep Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love off the glass.
Some postseason success might also entice Howard to stay in Boston following this season (for a hefty payday, of course). If Howard re-signed with the Celtics after a playoff run, his presence could then help attract another big piece to Boston in free agency.
That may be an enticing hypothetical, but the scenario requires quite the gamble. Countless teams are expected to have enough salary cap space to offer a player like Howard a max contract this summer, so there’s no guarantee he will prefer Boston as a long-term destination. Paying more than $25 million per year for a player on the wrong side of age 30 is also a questionable investment for a franchise with plenty of long-term flexibility.
When you account for those factors, most reasonable Boston trade offers for Howard are going to have too many potential drawbacks to be worth the cost. If the Celtics were in a rush to contend right now, it might be worth the risk of losing Howard to free agency. But Ainge can afford to be picky with his assets, which means the team should not take a chance on trading for Howard.
Meet the 2015 Boston Celtics
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