Celtics big man Kelly Olynyk is inconsistent, but integral and improving
COMMENTARY
I’ll be the first to admit: When everyone was offering an opinion on Brad Stevens’ projected 10-man rotation entering the season, I was among those to leave Kelly Olynyk at the bottom of the bench. He’s maddeningly inconsistent, and I foolishly believed Tyler Zeller would come close to replicating the effort he put forth last season.
I was wrong on both counts, at least to some degree.
Olynyk is still inconsistent – just contrast his season-high 28-point performance against the defending-champion Warriors with his scoreless stumble versus the playoff-hopeful Pistons. Hell, in three games since that double-overtime showdown with Golden State, during which he made 11-of-21 shots, the 24-year-old center has totaled just 13 points in three games on 6-of-22 shooting.
Where a caveat comes into play is opportunity. Because of the depth on Stevens’ roster, he doesn’t have to waste an extra second on a guy who looks to be having an off-night if he has someone he can slot right in behind him. This hasn’t always been a luxury with the guards this season, but it’s definitely available for the coach in the front-court.
On the year, Olynyk is averaging 8.8 points and 3.7 rebounds on 42.6 percent shooting (35.9% from beyond the arc) over 18.9 minutes in his 25 games (all stats through Wednesday). The Celtics are 13-12 when he plays.
But when the big man plays at least 20 minutes, the C’s are 9-2 (an .818 winning percentage). In those contests, Olynyk is averaging 13.8 points and 4.6 rebounds. He’s shooting 49.6 percent from the field and 43.2 percent from 3 in 24.4 minutes a night. He’s also attempting nearly 10.8 shots a game as compared to 7.9. And, as Stevens has pledged time and time again, it’d be beneficial for both Olynyk and his team if he shot the basketball more frequently.
“I’ve been telling him to shoot it since he got here. So I don’t know, I don’t know what’s different,’’ Stevens said prior to Tuesday’s game with Cleveland. “He probably just feels more comfortable and maybe that’s what experience does. But my message has stayed the same. I almost tried the opposite to see if it would work, but I didn’t.
“We need him to continue to play well for us to be a good team.’’
There’s something to be gained, obviously, from opportunity and, for Olynyk, that’s typically enhanced aggressiveness. He can space the floor and open looks for others, or beat fellow bigs off the dribble to charge the basket or draw them out to shoot from distance. His size and skill-set allow him the chance to be more consistent, and the hope is he’ll trend in that direction.
“It’s great that the coach has that confidence in you,’’ admitted the 7-footer. “But also you’re the one out there playing the game, and seeing the game through your eyes. So you’ve got to make the right basketball play. That’s the way I was taught to play the game. But I’m definitely starting to look for myself more.’’
Then there’s the defensive side to Olynyk’s game. Kevin Love might call him dirty and, to the naked eye, it seems crazy to suggest the sometimes-awkward 2013 13th overall pick is a shutdown defender but, in some areas, there’s no denying the analytics.
Olynyk has the 16th-best defensive rating – an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions – in the league at 97.6.
Steal percentage is an estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player while he was on the floor. Olynyk ranks tied for 14th in the NBA at 2.8. The only center he trails is Detroit’s Andre Drummond (2.9).
Then there’s Olynyk’s differential percentage. That’s the difference between a shooter’s normal field goal percentage during the year versus when he’s being guarded by a particular defender. A good defensive player has a negative percentage. Olynyk is tied for 18th overall at -6.2 (38.3%, down from 44.5%) for players who have played a minimum of 20 games, guarding guys who attempt at least five shots a game. Only one Celts player ranks higher: Evan Turner at -6.8 (10th).
Along those lines, because of his mobility as a big, his value is emphasized the farther he veers from the paint. For instance, his differential percentage jumps to -8.8 when guarding players who shoot from distances greater than 15 feet.
The numbers are dizzying, I know, but they demonstrate Olynyk’s often unsung value of versatility on offense and often being in the right place on defense. Some teams are obviously better with certain players off the floor. The Celtics thrive when their back-up center is present.
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