5 reasons the Celtics have a legitimate shot of upsetting the Warriors
COMMENTARY
It’s tough to adequately describe the dominance the 23-0 Golden State Warriors have showcased this year, but Brad Stevens hit the nail on the head with his remarks about the Western Conference juggernaut on Thursday.
“When you watch Golden State, they may be the most-improved team from last year to this year,’’ Stevens explained. “And [last year] they won it all.’’
Despite that incredible growth, some team is going to eventually take down the defending champions, but few people locally are giving the Celtics that chance Friday night. Most believe Golden State has too many weapons and Boston simply doesn’t have the horses to keep pace with the Warriors’ offensive firepower, led by the league’s reigning MVP Steph Curry.
A closer look at the particulars of the matchup between these two teams reveals a different reality. The Warriors are rightly favored in this contest (by seven points in most Las Vegas books, but the Celtics have a better chance at pulling off a historic upset than you might expect. Let’s examine a few of the key reasons why:
Klay Thompson is hurt. Any team looking to defeat the Warriors is going to need to catch some kind of break. The Celtics may have received just that on Tuesday night when Thompson suffered a sprained ankle in the closing seconds of a win over the Pacers. The shooting guard went through practice at Emerson College Thursday with his teammates, but he only put the status of his ankle at “70 percent.’’ Containing the Warriors’ offense without the services of Marcus Smart will be a stiff challenge for Boston, but it becomes a little more manageable without Thompson running around at full strength. The 25-year-old is shooting 44.2 percent from 3-point range this season, making him a deadly weapon within the team’s high-powered scoring attack. It’s hard to envision Thompson sitting out in the midst of the historic streak, but if he does, it gives Boston one less headache to worry about Friday night.
The Celtics have a track record of matching up well with the Warriors. The NBA is all about matchups and the Celtics have proven to be a formidable one for Golden State over the past year. Boston lost a pair of regular season contests against the Warriors during the 2014-15 season, but only by a combined eight points. Those setbacks include a famously squandered 22-point lead when the teams last faced off at the TD Garden back in March.
Avery Bradley believes his squad has addressed the issues that plagued them in those contests.
“We took a lot of things away from those [losses],’’ Bradley said Thursday. “We weren’t able to finish the games. We had chances to win both of those games last year. We just didn’t play the right way at the end of the game. I feel like this year we learned from all those mistakes and I’m confident enough to think that we have a chance to win the game tomorrow if we go out there and play the right way at both ends of the floor.’’
Isaiah Thomas will make Steph Curry work on defense. While Bradley and Thomas will have their hands full trying to slow Curry down on the offensive end of the floor, don’t expect Curry to get much rest on the defensive end either. Thomas has been in an offensive so far this December, averaging 21.5 points and 6.8 assists with 49 percent shooting from the field (47 percent from 3-point range).
Former Warrior David Lee also revealed on Thursday that Thomas has challenged Curry on the defensive end in recent seasons.
“I think Steph would be the first to admit [that] Isaiah, when he was in Sacramento, with his quickness, was always a tough matchup for Steph,’’ Lee said Thursday. “And that’s not talking bad, that’s just being honest. I’m sure if you looked at the numbers, Steph pretty much scores on everybody, so that’s going to be consistent. But Isaiah’s quickness gives a lot of guards trouble in the league and his ability to not only be quick but to make shots as well. He’s going to be a tough matchup going the other way.’’
The Celtics will likely need a subpar shooting night from Curry if they want to stop the streak, but the odds of that happening should increase with the sharpshooter forced to be fully engaged on the defensive end.
The Celtics have the weapons to expose one of the Warriors’ few flaws.
The strength of the Celtics’ defense lies within forcing opponents into mistakes. Boston is tops in the league in creating turnovers, averaging an incredible 17.9 per contest. Through 22 games, the Celtics are actually on pace to be one of the best teams in NBA history at manufacturing opponent miscues, forcing offenses to cough the ball up on 16.7 percent of their possessions. Conveniently for Boston, taking care of the ball is one of the Warriors’ few weaknesses on the offensive end. Golden State ranks 25th in the NBA in turnovers (15.6) per game. Most nights Curry and company shoot well enough to overcome this deficiency, but look for the Celtics (particularly Bradley and Jae Crowder) to try to expose this Warrior flaw on the perimeter and use it as part of their formula for a potential upset.
The Celtics are playing better than their record indicates.
Boston’s record may be a modest 13-9 just past the quarter mark of the season, but a look beneath the surface that win-loss mark is a team that is surpassing the expectations of most pundits. The Celtics own a plus-5.4 point per game point differential, a number that is tops among all teams in the Eastern Conference and fourth in the NBA overall. That mark is even more impressive when you consider it has taken Brad Stevens a couple weeks to mix and match before deciding on a rotation and starting lineup that worked for the team’s crowded depth chart.
Now that Stevens has settled in on both those fronts, the Celtics are rolling, having won six of their last eight games overall while showing additional confidence as a unit.
“We are going in the right direction as a unit,’’ Jae Crowder said Thursday of the team’s recent play. “I think coaches sense it. We as players sense it. It feels good right now and we are in a good state. …We know what we have to do to win games. I think Brad knows it. We are just trying to stick to what we do. It’s been working for us and we are going to keep at it.’’
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