How many wins for the Celtics?
COMMENTARY
The Celtics will kick off their 2015-16 season on Wednesday night when they host the Philadelphia 76ers at the TD Garden. In preparation for opener, we took a look at some enticing Celtics over/under numbers, courtesy of Bovada. Who will exceed expectations? How will new additions like David Lee fare? And is Las Vegas underrating the Celtics’ offseason? Let’s explore the numbers and make some predictions.
Isaiah Thomas, points per game: 18
Boston’s biggest offensive weapon will continue to come off the bench in year two, but should also see starter minutes. Still, with an improved supporting cast around the speedy guard, there should be less of an onus on Thomas to carry the Celtics offense. He’ll be asked to handle the ball plenty, but additional scoring options such as David Lee or Amir Johnson in the pick-and-roll will make Thomas more of a passer when defenses decide to key in on him. The 26-year-old will lead the Celtics in scoring, but he’ll see a decline in his 19 ppg average from last season.
Prediction: Under (16)
David Lee, rebounds per game: 7.5
Prior to last year, when he lost his starting job to Draymond Green, Lee made a living posting double-doubles on a regular basis. In eight season spanning from 2006-2014, he averaged at least 8.9 rebounds per game. He isn’t likely to match those numbers at age 32, but he should stand out as one of the top rebounders in Boston’s frontcourt. As long as he stays in Brad Stevens’ good graces and earns 25-plus minutes per night, I expect Lee to be Boston’s top rebounder.
Prediction: Over (8)
Avery Bradley, points per game: 13.5
Bradley is one of the most experienced Celtic players on the roster, which is a surprising development when you consider the fact that he’s only 24 years old. The shooting guard has yet to hit his ceiling at that young age, and he’s committed to being more efficient with his scoring this season. The long two-point jumpers are going to be pushed aside regularly, with the focus now shifting to finding open looks from the corner, beyond the arc. With Bradley aiming to hit 40 percent of his three-point attempts this year, the longest tenured Celtic should be in line to break his career-high for points per game (14.9).
Prediction: Over (15.5)
Brad Stevens, technical fouls during season: 0.5
The third-year head coach escaped the wrath of NBA officials for his entire sophomore season, but was whistled for his second career technical during a preseason game last month. Will Stevens throw a fit once the real games begin? I decided to create this line so we could explore the question. With the Celtics expected to contend for a playoff spot from game one this year, Stevens will have plenty to fight for on any given night. Combine that with some additional familiarity with officials after his first couple seasons and I think we have a recipe to see a little bit more of fiery Brad this year.
Prediction: Over (2)
Regular season wins, 44.5
Bettors have been all over this line, hammering the over ever since it was initially released at 42.5 last month. That number indicated Vegas casinos don’t want to give the Celtics much credit for the team’s 24-12 finish to last year’s regular season. Boston won’t be able to keep up that kind of pace over 82 games, but this roster has improved since that sensational stretch. Lee and Johnson are upgrades in the frontcourt and continuity (10 returning players) will only bode well for Stevens and his system. A five-game improvement is not a stretch at all after last year’s 40-42.
Prediction: Over (47)
Photos: Meet the 2015-16 Boston Celtics
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