Marcus Smart’s closest comparison is James Harden, says Nate Silver’s projection algorithm
It’s fair to say that Boston Celtics fans should be thrilled if Marcus Smart’s career turns out anything like James Harden’s.
But Harden’s All-NBA career is actually a likely scenario for Boston’s second-year point guard, according to Nate Silver’s NBA career forecasting algorithm.
CARMELO, Silver’s new “PECOTA for basketball,’’ predicts the career arc of NBA players based on the performance trajectory of similar players in league history, according to FiveThirtyEight. In a post this week, the algorithm found Smart’s “most comparable player’’ to be Harden, followed by Paul George and Jason Richardson.
(Smart’s fourth and fifth most comparable counterparts, perhaps less alluring for Celtics fans, were Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Vladmir Radmonovic, according to CARMELO.)
A “defensive menace,’’ Smart is perhaps already outpacing the 2014-2015 league MVP runner-up on one end of the floor. Though it‘s worth noting that Smart’s projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) never even peaks above single digits — nowhere near Harden’s league-best WAR of 20.63 last season.
In other promising news for Celtics fans, FiveThirtyEight predicted Boston to go 48-34 in the 2015-2016 season, noting the team’s 24-12 finish last season and the additions of David Lee and Amir Johnson. An eight-game improvement from the previous season, 48 wins would have been good enough for the five-seed in the 2015 Eastern Conference playoffs.
If Silver’s pastforecasts are any measure, the Celtics’ near future looks to be a bright shade of green.
Read FiveThirtyEight’s complete Celtics team and player forecast here.
Meet the 2015-2016 Boston Celtics
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