Should the Celtics extend Tyler Zeller?
COMMENTARY
Danny Ainge may have finished constructing a full Celtics roster for the upcoming 2015-16 season, but his work this summer is not done yet. Contract negotiations for players nearing the end of their rookie deals are now fully under way, and Boston has a few candidates to consider on that front.
Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones and Tyler Zeller are all eligible for extensions, before the start of the regular season (October 31st). Otherwise if Boston chooses not to extend their contracts, the team risks paying said players much in restricted free agency next offseason when the entire league can bid on their services. Knowing this, Ainge told Adam Himmelsbach of the Boston Globe that the team has opened up extension negotiations with Sullinger and Zeller already.
Emerging young talent such as Damian Lillard, Anthony Davis, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist have already agreed to extensions with their current teams, eliminating that risk. Some of the deals were no-brainers (Lillard, Davis), but others like Kidd-Gilchrist and Raptor big man Jonas Valanciunas were awarded hefty paydays on their four-year extensions. (Via Basketball Insiders)
Anthony Davis extension: Five years, $145 million
Damian Lillard extension: Five years, $120 million
Jonas Valanciunas extension: Four years, $64 million
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist extension: Four years, $52 million
With a rising salary-cap looming in the summer of 2016, teams are trying to lock in players for what seem like inflated salaries now, knowing they will look like reasonable numbers (or even bargains) later in the deal once a skyrocketing salary cap pushes up the asking price for free agents.
The idea of signing an extension now with a non-star player creates a conundrum for a general manager like Ainge who values future cap flexibility. Even though there are three players who are eligible for rookie extensions, only a single player is an overly appealing candidate for one right now: Zeller.
Jones is not a sure thing to even make the roster, while Sullinger has plenty to prove on the court with his conditioning before the team opts to invest big money in him. The 23-year-old forward has dropped weight this offseason, but his agent David Falk has a history of taking his clients to free agency.
Unlike Sullinger, Zeller was one of the more consistent Celtics last season, thriving under Brad Stevens’ tutelage to average 10.2 points and 5.7 rebounds in just 21 minutes per game. His rolling ability and willingness to run the floor made him an effective offensive weapon, even though his lack of three-point shooting range hampered the team’s pace-and-space offense at times.
Still, at just 25-years-old, Zeller’s best basketball is still ahead of him, and the team is seriously considering him, according to Basketball Insiders, who noted the odds of a deal to be “50/50.’’
Why would there be any hesitancy on the part of the Celtics? The team would likely prefer not to tap into roughly $50 million dollar of potential salary cap room next summer before it’s necessary. It’s unlikely the team will be able to use all of that money on a couple of top-tier free agents, but you can bet Ainge would like it as an option, just in case the opportunity arises.
That immense amount of potential cap space will also allow Ainge to get creative with blockbuster trade possibilities in 2016, potentially helping the team facilitate the acquisition of a star next summer. A Zeller extension wouldn’t inhibit those possibilities outright, but could limit Ainge’s options.
The flip side to that stance is if Zeller is willing to sign for less money to gain some long-term financial security, it could be enticing enough for the Celtics to make a lengthy commitment. However, if Zeller wants big money ($11 million or more per season), Boston may opt to wait out the market and make the seven-footer out of North Carolina prove he’s worthy of that kind of payday during a contract year.
The truth is that in a crowded Boston frontcourt, Zeller isn’t even a sure thing to be starting at center. A reloaded front line consisting of Amir Johnson, David Lee, Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk makes Zeller a big man who is not even guaranteed to see 25-30 minutes every game. It’s tough to justify committing a huge raise to a player like that in an uncertain marketplace.
Zeller is an effective player, but he’s also ultimately a replaceable one. That’s not the kind of guy you necessarily need to throw a huge extension at, until the market dictates you must. Unless Zeller makes reasonable salary demands, the Celtics may be better off waiting this one out until next offseason.
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