All of the Celtics’ (many) draft picks, ranked

The 2015 NBA Draft board. USA Today Sports

By Brian Robb

August 20, 2015

7 minutes to read

COMMENTARY

Keeping track of the Celtics’ collection of future draft picks is a challenging task for most fans. The list of picks is long, and it’s continually being expanded thanks to Danny Ainge’s famous wheeling and dealing. Whether Boston is absorbing unwanted salary from another team or helping facilitate a three-team deal, Ainge and his front office cohorts are always looking to leverage the team’s flexibility to grow its draft pick collection.

Currently, the size of the Celtics draft stockpile for the next five years is second only to the Philadelphia 76ers. Here’s the full rundown of the picks the Celtics are likely to own over that time period.

2016: 3 first-round picks; 5 second-round picks

2017: 1 first-round pick; 4 second-round picks

2018: 2 first-round picks; 1 second-round pick

2019: 2 first-round picks; 2 second-round picks

2020: 1 first-round pick; 2 second-round picks

Eight first-round picks and 14 second-round selections seem impressive, but as we saw this past NBA Draft, the value of each of those picks can vary widely. Ainge reportedly offered the Charlotte Hornets a trade package featuring four first-round picks, but that deal wasn’t enough to convince Michael Jordan to part with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2015 draft.

The key to that refused offer, like any deal, was not how many first-round picks were in the proposed trade, but where those picks are expected to land in the draft. Of the four first-round picks the Celtics offered the Hornets, Charlotte was (perhaps foolishly) not confident any of those selections would turn into future top-10 picks.

With the chance of landing an impact rookie like Justise Winslow now gone, Ainge is holding onto his stable of picks for the time being, with the knowledge that they may be essential to landing a key core piece, whether via trade or in the draft.

Which of Boston’s future draft selections currently hold the most value for the team in the coming seasons? Let’s first take a closer look at the selections and specifically what picks the Celtics have to work with, year-by-year, via prospectransactions.com.

2016 NBA Draft

1st round picks: Celtics, Nets, Mavericks* (protected), Timberwolves** (protected)

2nd round picks: 76ers, Cavs, Heat, Grizzlies/Mavericks***, Timberwolves**

* Mavs’ pick is top 7 protected from 2016-2018. Unprotected in 2019.

** Timberwolves’ pick is top-12 protected for 2016. If Wolves land in the top 12 of the 2016 NBA Lottery, Boston will receive two second-round picks in 2016 and 2017 instead of a first-round pick. Acquired via Phoenix in Brandan Wright trade.

*** Grizzlies/Mavericks’ second-round pick. Via a pair of trades, Celtics get the more favorable of these two selections.

2017 NBA Draft

1st round picks: Celtics/Nets*

2nd round picks: Celtics**, Cavaliers, Timberwolves***, Clippers

* Celtics have the right to swap their own first-round pick with Nets, if they choose. Acquired in Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce deal.

** If Celtics swap first-round picks with Nets, Brooklyn would be able to acquire Boston’s second-round pick (top 45 protected).

*** Celtics will receive second-round pick in 2017 from Timberwolves if Minnesota lands in top-12 of 2016 NBA Lottery.

2018 NBA Draft

1st round picks: Celtics, Nets (unprotected)

2nd round picks: Celtics

2019 NBA Draft

1st round picks: Celtics, Grizzlies* (protected)

2nd round picks: Celtics, Pistons

*Grizzlies protected pick was acquired in Jeff Green trade and will be sent to Boston two years after Memphis sends a protected first-round pick to Denver Nuggets (expected in 2017). Based on protections of that selection that vary each year, Boston is most likely to receive the pick in 2019, when it is top-eight protected. If not received in 2019, the pick rolls over to future seasons. It is top-six protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021.

2020 NBA Draft

1st round picks: Celtics,

2nd round picks: Celtics, Heat

It’s helpful to know the specifics of Ainge’s arsenal, but which of these picks hold the most value around the league? I elected to rank the selections, based on many factors including roster composition, long-term team outlooks and pick protections. So without further ado, let’s try to make sense of the lengthy list by unveiling the Celtics Future Draft Selection Power Rankings.

Honorable mention

14 projected second-round picks. Boston may almost have enough second-round picks to field a full team over the next five seasons, but the net worth of these selections is limited. In most years, teams can buy their way into the second round with cash, in hope of landing a player who slipped through the cracks, such as Draymond Green.

Picks towards the top of the round can lead to promising prospects, as the Celtics saw this summer with Jordan Mickey, but more often than not, finding a contributor after the top 30 picks is a crapshoot. Boston’s assembled collection of second-round picks will prove useful in minor deals and taking chances on prospects with question marks. However, don’t expect these selections to bring much value for Ainge, beyond the fact that he has plenty to spare.

5. Minnesota’s top-12 protected first-round pick in 2016. The Timberwolves made strides this offseason by selecting Karl-Anthony Towns and solidifying a veteran slate of role players with the return of Kevin Garnett and the addition of Tayshaun Prince.

However, in a loaded Western Conference, Minnesota still has a long road to climb to be considered contenders for a playoff spot. No one is expecting that kind of a jump at this point, making this pick likely to turn into two second-round selections from Minnesota (for the 2016 and 2017 drafts), since the first-round pick possibility does not roll over past this season.

4. Boston’s future first-round picks. Just one summer ago, the Celtics’ own first-round pick at No. 6 was arguably its most valuable trade asset. Now after another year of tutelage under Brad Stevens, and some notable upgrades throughout the roster, Boston looks to be a team on the rise in the Eastern Conference. That should help the franchise attract some free agent candidates moving forward, but it will limit the appeal of Boston’s own stable of picks.

Opposing teams know the Celtics have a truckload of salary cap space for next summer and the assets to land a potential big name or two, so Ainge shopping around picks that will likely land in the bottom half of the draft shouldn’t fetch too much. Ultimately, it’s a good problem to have for the team. Ainge prepared for this possibility by accumulating first-round selections from other teams so he is not dependent on the Cs tanking to ensure he has valuable draft capital.

3. Memphis’ future protected first-round pick (likely for 2019). For the past few seasons, Memphis has been a perennial playoff team in the Western Conference, thanks to a formidable core of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley. Gasol just re-signed for five years, increasing the odds of Memphis’ success lasting through the remainder of the decade, and limiting the promise of this pick for Boston, even though it’s likely to arrive in 2019.

The only potential upside to the selection at this point is the age of the Grizzlies’ core. Randolph is 34, Gasol is 29, and Conley is 28. The prime of those players should be fading in another three years, giving the Celtics an outside shot at a pick in the teens or potentially better in 2019 if Memphis can’t keep pace with younger squads in the West. Otherwise, like Boston’s own future picks, this selection won’t fetch much for Ainge.

2. Dallas’ top-7 protected first-round pick. At the time of the Rajon Rondo trade, this first-round pick from the Mavericks looked primed to be another candidate to land in the 20s of the 2015 NBA Draft. Knowing this, the Celtics’ front office wisely got Dallas to put unique pick protections on it for last season (1-7, 15-30), hoping it would roll over to the 2015-16 season, when the Mavs had a realistic chance of taking a step back in the standings.

Nine months later, that clause is looking like one of Boston’s best during the rebuild. The Rondo experiment in Dallas blew up, DeAndre Jordan spurned the Mavs for the Clippers, and the team’s roster now consists of the aging Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams, a rehabbing Wesley Matthews and a host of role players.

Given the team’s roster composition, Dallas isn’t expected to be a playoff team in 2016, but it still has enough talent to fall outside of the top-seven in the league, the perfect scenario for the Celtics to land a late-lottery pick. Ainge won’t know the precise value of this pick until the conclusion of the 2016 season, but its prospects have improved considerably since the end of last year’s regular season.

1. Brooklyn’s future first-round picks.

1c) 2018 unprotected first-round pick

1b) Celtics’ right to swap first-round picks in 2017

1a) 2016 unprotected first-round pick

The crown jewels of the Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce blockbuster deal that Ainge landed in the summer of 2014 have yet to surface. However, the net worth of said picks is looking better than ever after a cost-cutting offseason by the Nets. Deron Williams was bought out, Mason Plumlee was traded, and key role players such as Mirza Teletovic found new homes in free agency.

Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young re-signed, but outside of Joe Johnson, the team’s remaining roster largely consists of lottery disappointments (Andrea Bargnani, Thomas Robinson) or young castoffs (Shane Larkin) since Brooklyn had no salary cap space to replace departed pieces.

In the midst of an improving Eastern Conference, Brooklyn arguably has the least amount of talent on the roster, top-to-bottom, outside of the 76ers. The team has no incentive to tank with its draft situation, but the odds are in favor of Brooklyn’s 2016 pick will be a lottery selection, potentially even an elite one, for Boston.

Beyond this season, things get a bit murkier, as one thing GM Billy King did well this offseason was clear the books for next summer. The Nets will have significant salary cap room then but could also lose Joe Johnson, who will be a free agent and should be looking for a better chance to win as he enters his late 30s.

With the rest of the league also lined up to have significant money to spend in 2016, convincing top-tier or even second-tier free agents to join a core of Lopez, Young and young prospects could be a tough sell. That fact alone should leave Celtics fans optimistic over the value of these picks through the 2018 season. If Boston is going to land a star via trade, these Brooklyn picks will likely be the cornerstone of the deal.