Weighing the pros and cons of a Noah Hanifin trade for the Bruins
A Bruins D corps featuring McAvoy, Lindholm, Hanifin, and Carlo would arguably be the best in the NHL.
COMMENTARY
The Bruins might be fixated on the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, but Don Sweeney and Boston’s top brass aren’t granted the luxury of staying in the present.
As promising as this reworked roster might be, Boston should have a prime opportunity to bolster an already strong foundation of talent this summer thanks to some fiscal flexibility.
Per CapFriendly, the Bruins are currently projected to enter the offseason with $26.8 million in cap space — enough capital to retrain key assets and even land a top target or two in free agency.
One of those top splashes could be pending UFA defenseman (and Norwood native) Noah Hanifin — a 27-year-old, do-it-all blueliner who could forge arguably the best top-four grouping in the NHL if he inks a deal with Boston.
But after the latest sting of the injury bug, Sweeney and the Bruins may not be in a position to wait for the free-agency feeding frenzy to begin — especially with TSN’s Chris Johnston reporting that the Flames will likely deal Hanifin before the March 8 trade deadline.
Let’s go through a few pros and cons of the Bruins’ swinging another blockbuster trade this spring:
PRO: Hanifin addresses an immediate need
Had we explored this scenario just a few days ago, I would have dismissed a Hanifin trade as a short-sighted, costly move — easily remedied if Boston waited until July to try to sign him in free agency.
Of course, there’s always a risk that Hanifin gets dealt to another team in the next few weeks and signs an extension there. But if the skilled D-man does go to market, the Bruins should be viewed as a top contender for his services.
The Bruins may no longer have the option to sit and wait for Hanifin to hit free agency — not given the current state of their D corps.
The 2023-24 Bruins were built as a team anchored by elite goaltending and a stingy zone defense. And while both Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark have held up their end of the bargain, the layers in front of both goalies have shown cracks this winter.
The Bruins might rank fifth in the NHL in goals against per game (2.68), but they rank 24th in high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes at 11.79 (per Natural Stat Trick).
Beyond Boston’s concerning propensity for letting quality scoring chances develop in front of Ullmark and Swayman, the left side of the Bruins’ D corps is already taking on water with the playoffs still two months away.
Boston’s primary workhorse on the left side in Hampus Lindholm is already tabbed as a “week to week” case following a knee-on-knee collision earlier this week. Matt Grzelcyk is day to day with a lower-body injury, with the Charlestown native’s ability to withstand the punishing nature of playoff hockey routinely brought up when the calendar shifts to spring.
And while Derek Forbort has returned to the lineup following an extended stint on long-term injured reserve due to a nagging lower-body issue, the results have left a lot to be desired for the stingy, stay-at-home skater. Since returning from LTIR on Jan. 20, the Bruins have relinquished 15 goals in Forbort’s 219 minutes of ice time.
The Bruins do have some replacements available, be it the versatile Parker Wotherspoon or the poised rookie Mason Lohrei. But Wotherspoon is more suited for a bottom-pairing role, while Lohrei — as gifted as he is with the puck on his stick — could be exposed in the D-zone during playoff action.
With Lindholm licking his wounds and the rest of Boston’s starting left-shot skaters banged up and/or submitting lackluster returns, the Bruins might need to put their chips on the table once again next month for a top-four, minutes-eating stalwart like Hanifin.
PRO: Adding another foundational piece
Don Sweeney and the Bruins have depleted their prospect pipeline over the years thanks to a flurry of “win-now” moves struck to put some talented teams over the top.
Boston paid a steep price to acquire veteran Rick Nash from the Rangers in Feb. 2018, with the Bruins hoping to retain the power forward as a top-six stalwart beyond that season. But Boston’s plans of stapling Nash to David Krejci’s hip for another couple of seasons dissipated after the winger retired due to concussion-related issues.
When Boston pried Charlie Coyle out of Minnesota, he had another year of control on the deal he inked with the Wild in Oct. 2014. Less than nine months after Coyle landed in Boston, the Bruins signed him to a six-year, $31.5 million extension.
Taylor Hall put pen to paper on a four-year deal with Boston months after the former Hart Trophy winner donned a black-and-gold sweater. And Hampus Lindholm didn’t even log a single shift with the Bruins before Boston handed him an eight-year, $52 million contract in March 2022.
There have been plenty of short-term rental moves and misfires along the way for Sweeney and Boston’s front office. But when coveted prospects or first-round draft picks are on the table, the Bruins tend to set their sights on assets capable of elevating the current hockey team — and contributing for the foreseeable future.
Hanifin stands as another worthwhile investment if the Bruins manage to strike a deal with Calgary, especially if they get the local product to sign a long-term deal in short order.
With Hanifin in place, the Bruins would boast arguably the best top-four grouping in the entire NHL — and could hold onto that standing for at least a couple of seasons.
Yes, there would still be long-term questions about Boston’s talent at center and other internal options capable of filling out the team’s forward corps.
But as Boston continues to stamp a new identity in the post-Bergeron era, there’s a lot to like about a D corps anchored by a quartet of:
Charlie McAvoy (Age 26 / 6-foot-1) – Signed through 2030
Hampus Lindholm (Age 30 / 6-foot-4) – Signed through 2030
Brandon Carlo (Age 27 / 6-foot-5) – Signed through 2027
Noah Hanifin (Age 27 / 6-foot-3) – Signed through ???
That’s four defensemen capable of logging heavy minutes, snuffing out scoring chances and pushing the puck in transition — even if the latter isn’t necessarily Carlo’s strong suit.
Hanifin is already in the prime of his career, averaging 23:43 of ice time per game and chipping in with 30 points (nine goals, 21 points) over 57 contests with the Flames. His knack for putting pucks on net from the blue line (109 shots on goal) could come in handy for a Bruins team that’s 16-1-3 this year when a defenseman lights the lamp.
The cost to acquire Hanifin before the March 8 deadline will be steep (more on that in a minute), but the chance to add a player of his caliber for the long haul is very tempting.
CON: A hefty asking price … and limited resources
If there was ever a year for the Bruins to be searching for the big fish at the deadline … this ain’t it.
That might sound counterintuitive to a team that currently sits atop the Eastern Conference with a 34-12-12 record. But after years of orchestrating those “win-now” moves, the bill has potentially come due for Boston.
Beyond Matthew Poitras and Lohrei, the Bruins’ farm system is far from robust. Boston won’t land on the clock until the fourth round of the 2024 NHL Draft, nor will they pick in the second or fourth round in 2025.
And with bonus overages from both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci still on their books, the Bruins currently have just $61,558 in projected cap space, per CapFriendly.
You can see why Hanifin is likely viewed more as an offseason pursuit, given the hurdles in place with the 2023-24 Bruins.
Boston’s already meager trade assets would be squeezed even further in order to acquire a player like Hanifin. Not only would Boston’s 2025 first-round pick stand as an obviously casualty, but a team staring at a potential rebuild like Calgary would also likely covet one of Poitras or Lohrei.
That’s already a sizable ask, but the Bruins also need to make the money work in order to take in Hanifin and his $4.95 million cap hit.
Sure, the Bruins could try to dump a contract like Grzelcyk or Forbort, but Calgary does hold some leverage here given Boston’s limited cap flexibility.
Would they prefer a top-six winger like Jake DeBrusk? Boston could also try to get the Flames to retain more of Hanifin’s salary, but that could result in giving up another valuable pick or prospect.
For the Bruins, it’s already going to be a sizable undertaking just getting the pieces in place to try and swing a deal for Hanifin. And if the Flames do end up saying “Yes?” — the cost is going to sting.
CON: An all-in move with Hanifin could limit Boston’s other options at the deadline
When we ran through our ranking of Boston’s top deadline needs last week, the Bruins’ limited cap space and tradeable assets loomed large over our picks.
Rather than focus on a top-four option like Hanifin or a 20-goal scorer, we tabbed Boston as being players for a tone-setting bruiser on the fourth line, or a third-pairing D capable of boxing skaters out of Grade-A ice.
There’s no question that acquiring Hanifin would help the 2023-24 Bruins, especially if Lindholm’s injury lingers into the spring. But the cost to acquire the Flames skater and the cap gymnastics needed to reel off such a deal might limit Boston from swinging any other deals between now and March 8.
Boston’s fourth line has stabilized as of late, especially with Trent Frederic slotted down on that unit to add some more bite. But a forechecking menace like Brandon Duhaime could make a sizable difference in the playoffs, while a scrappy blueliner like Ilya Lyubushkin or Nick Seeler could add some snarl to a Bruins D corps that’s been made far too malleable during critical situations.
Hanifin might be a big body at 6-foot-3, but he’s a bit more of a Carlo or Lindholm in terms of his play style — using his positioning, stick work and a crisp first pass to snuff out scoring chances, rather than a bone-crunching hit.
The Bruins are a better team if Noah Hanifin is patrolling their blue line. But perhaps that’s an exercise reserved for a 2024-25 Bruins team that has the proper resources to bring him aboard.
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