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Ranking the Bruins’ potential first-round opponents: Who does Boston match up best against?
The Bruins clinched a playoff berth on March 11, but they may not know their first-round foe until late next week.
The Bruins punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup Playoffs all the way back on March 11. But Jim Montgomery and his team may not know who they’re facing in the first round until the final day or two of the regular season.
While the Bruins sit atop the NHL standings with 125 points, there are five teams all within six points of each other in the race for the Eastern Conference Wild Card spots.
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If the regular season ended on Thursday, the Bruins would host the Islanders in the first round. But a lot can change between now and the final week-plus of the regular season.
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Make no mistake, the Bruins will enter whatever first-round matchup they earn as the overwhelming favorite.
Still, as the Bruins brace themselves for a daunting road through the rest of the Eastern Conference, there should be a clear hierarchy in terms of favorable matchups for Boston in the coming weeks.
As we await for the dust to settle in the standings, let’s rank a few of Boston’s first-round opponents in the order of toughest to the most favorable matchup.
4. New York Islanders
Team record: 39-30-9 (87 points) – Currently in 2nd Wild Card spot
Bruins’ record vs. Islanders this season: 3-0-0 (Boston outscored them, 14-6)
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What could Bruins have trouble with? Ilya Sorokin and a stingy Isles defense.
The Bruins have a structured zone defense that can stop even the most potent offenses in their tracks. Both Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman can snuff out Grade-A scoring chances and keep pucks out of twine.
With high-end offensive talents like David Pastrnak in place, the Bruins can keep up against teams adept at trading chances down both ends of the ice.
But if there’s one type of roster that can meddle in Boston’s plans for a storybook ending this season, it’s a team like the Islanders: A squad with elite goaltending … and a gameplan rooted in boredom.
The Islanders are their best when they’re grinding teams down, packing things in and keeping top-six stalwarts to the outside on just about every shift.
It’s not a thrilling brand of hockey. But when you look at some of Boston’s most uninspiring performances this season (a 3-0 loss to the Kraken on Jan. 12 , a 2-1 loss to the Predators on March 28), it’s involved teams playing simple, low-event hockey against them.
If you want an example beyond this season, look at what the 2019 Blues did over seven games in the Stanley Cup Final. Simple, no-frills … but it’s a winning formula against some imposing matchups.
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With a D corps anchored by Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, New York has a blue-line grouping capable of locking things down in their own end.
But the top equalizer for New York has to be Sorokin, who might be the only true challenger for Ullmark when it comes to the Vezina Trophy.
With a smaller margin of error to work with given New York’s scoring issues, Sorokin has bailed out his club all season long. The 27-year-old netminder actually holds a higher goals saved above expected total (46.4) than Ullmark (42.5), while also tying for the NHL lead with five shutouts.
The Isles have also kept Sorokin away from matchups against Boston this season, with Semyon Varlamov getting the nod in net for all three games against the B’s in 2022-23.
That lack of familiarity with Sorokin, coupled with the goalie’s own impressive body of work, might give Boston some headaches. If there’s a goalie in the first round who can topple the juggernaut Bruins, it’s Sorokin.
And it’s not particularly close.
What could Bruins exploit? A toothless offense.
Yes, New York’s stingy defense and stout goaltending from Sorokin can turn Boston’s first-round matchup into a low-scoring slog of a series.
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But those defensive efforts won’t mean all that much if the Islanders can’t do damage down the other end of the ice.
Even after jumpstarting the Eastern Conference arms race by trading for Bo Horvat back in January, the Isles still rank 25th in the league in offense at just 2.90 goals scored per game. Their power play is even worse, operating at a 16 percent success rate (30th in NHL).
The return of Mathew Barzal (out since mid-February with a lower-body injury) should alleviate some of New York’s scoring woes. But if Ullmark is on his game and Boston’s defense is humming along, the Isles are going to have some trouble potting multiple goals in this series.
3. Florida Panthers
Team record: 40-31-7 (87 points) – Currently in 1st Wild Card Spot
Bruins’ record vs. Panthers this season: 2-1-1 (Boston outscored them, 17-15)
What could Bruins have trouble with? A high-end offense due for some puck luck.
One of the main reasons why the Panthers captured the Presidents’ Trophy in 2021-22? A serious surge in offensive production from countless contributors across the depth chart.
In total, Florida had nine different players shoot over 13 percent last season — leading to breakthrough performances from regulars like Anthony Duclair (31 goals), Sam Reinhart (33 goals), Mason Marchment (18 goals) and Carter Verhaeghe (24 goals).
But this season, Florida’s offense has taken a step back in terms of finishing rate (9.5 team shooting percentage), with JFreshHockey tabbing the Panthers 28th in terms of cashing in on scoring chances.
But it’s a testament to the Panthers’ offense that they still rank fifth in the league in scoring at 3.51 tallies per game. That baseline production, when factoring in their low finishing rate, paints the picture of a team that can score in bunches if some puck luck finally starts falling their way.
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And with stars like Matthew Tkachuk (103 points), Aleksander Barkov (72 points) and Verhaeghe (40 goals) in place, the Panthers have the means to do some damage in a seven-game series.
Granted, that run-and-gun mantra doesn’t exactly thrive when matched up against a stingy defense like Boston’s. But the Panthers have capitalized against both Ullmark and Swayman this season, averaging just under four goals per game in their four meetings with the Bruins.
What could Bruins exploit? A pedestrian defense and inconsistent goaltending.
The Panthers added a top-line star in Tkachuk by way of a blockbuster trade with the Flames this past offseason.
But the loss of MacKenzie Weegar in the deal (arguably one of the most underrated blueliners in the league) has sapped a significant amount of defensive fortitude from Florida’s roster.
A team with the 23rd-ranked defense (3.36 goals against per game) doesn’t usually fare well in the playoffs, especially when coupled with a 27th-ranked penalty kill (74.6 percent).
And even though Sergei Bobrovsky has two Vezinas on his resume, he’s been far from the same player since moving down to South Florida (.901 save percentage in 50 games).
A rematch against the Panthers could lead to some high-scoring contests later this month. But unlike Boston, Florida may not have the D-zone personnel in place to stop the bleeding.
2. Buffalo Sabres
Team record: 37-32-7 (81 points) – Currently six points out of 2nd Wild Card Spot
Bruins’ record vs. Sabres this season: 3-0-1 (Boston outscored them, 20-6)
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What could Bruins have trouble with? Devon Levi.
The Sabres are hanging on by just a thread when it comes to their postseason hopes.
Tied with the Senators at 81 points, Buffalo sits six points behind both the Panthers and Islanders. The only saving grace is that they can still have six more games left on their schedule. They’re going to need a lot to go right, but they have the means to make up some points over the next week.
Buffalo is a high-scoring, flawed squad that Boston picked apart all season long. Even with Tage Thompson spearheading a pretty lethal offensive attack, the Sabres realistically don’t have the wherewithal to keep other teams off the scoreboard.
That is — unless Devon Levi saves the day between the pipes.
Of course, we’re not drawing direct parallels between the former Northeastern Husky and someone like Ken Dryden. But Levi stands as a missing ingredient on a rebuilding Sabres team, and he’s lived up to some lofty expectations through his first few games in the pros.
After posting save percentages of .952 and .933 over his two full seasons at Northeastern, Levi has stopped 65 of the 69 shots he’s faced so far with the Sabres.
If Buffalo somehow manages to squeak into the postseason, it’s going to be off the fruits of Levi’s labor. The 21-year-old goalie is living up to the hype.
What could Bruins exploit? A dreadful defensive system.
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Even if Levi wills this team to the postseason, the Sabres’ defense in front of him will still be severely lacking.
You could make the case that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen wasn’t even all that bad in net during Boston’s 7-0 beatdown against the Sabres back on March 19. He was simply hung out to dry by a D corps that makes things far to easy for the opposition when it comes to opening up avenues toward Grade-A ice.
Pastrnak and Co. will be licking their chops at the prospect of a playoff series against this squad.
1. Pittsburgh Penguins
Team record: 38-30-10 (86 points) – One point out of 2nd Wild Card spot
Bruins’ record vs. Penguins this season: 3-0-0 (Boston outscored them, 12-9)
What could Bruins have trouble with? The usual suspects in Crosby, Malkin and Letang.
This Penguins team might be a fleeting vestige of a roster than has dominated the Eastern Conference for over a decade.
But it’s tough to overlook a team still anchored by top-end talent like Sidney Crosby (88 points), Evgeni Malkin (80 points), and Kris Letang (36 points in 59 games).
Add in other top-six stalwarts like Jake Guentzel (35 goals), Rickard Rakell (27 goals), and Bryan Rust (20 goals), and this top-heavy team still has the ability to punch back against top opponents.
The Penguins’ extended reign in this conference might be ending, but it’s tough to fully count out a veteran-heavy team anchored by some elite players.
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What could Bruins exploit? A severe lack of depth and lackluster goaltending.
It’s a pretty serious indictment on the Penguins that we opted to give Buffalo (a flawed team relying on a rookie goalie) a better shot of giving Boston some troubles in the first round.
Pittsburgh might have a shot in the playoffs thanks to its top-six unit and first D pairing.
But that optimism wanes in a hurry when looking at the lower depths of their lineup. Ron Hextall might deserve some credit for trading for Rakell last spring, but the rest of his roster construction has saddled Pittsburgh with far too many spare pieces thrust into key roles.
Whether it be a forward grouping featuring players like Jeff Carter, Mikael Granlund, and Ryan Poehling struggling to make an impact, a thin D corps or a lackluster goalie tandem of Tristan Jarry (.909 save percentage) and Casey DeSmith (.905 save percentage), the Penguins are just far too mediocre in too many areas of their roster.
Even with the threat of stars like Crosby and Malkin, the Bruins should be able to land body shot after body shot against the rest of Pittsburgh’s roster.
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