Why Jake DeBrusk’s return can’t come soon enough for the Bruins

"I just missed scoring goals."

Jake DeBrusk was on pace for 36 goals this season at the time of his injury. Matthew J. Lee / Globe Staff

February 13, 2023

4 minutes to read

After missing more than a month of action with both a reported broken fibula and hand injury, Jake DeBrusk knows the Bruins will be cautious with him over the next week.

But after sitting on the shelf for such an extended stretch, DeBrusk hopes those protective measures don’t last very long.

“I’m definitely going on this road trip and I’m gonna try to play as fast as I can,” DeBrusk said Monday at Warrior Ice Arena. “I’ve been missing it too much. So as soon as I get the go-ahead, then I’ll be in and ready to go.”

For now, DeBrusk may have to wait just a bit longer. Despite skating in a regular practice sweater for Monday’s practice, Jim Montgomery didn’t give the 26-year-old winger the green light for Tuesday’s road contest in Dallas.

“No, not yet. But he is going through the steps,” Montgomery said of DeBrusk’s availability. “Doubtful for tomorrow, probable for Thursday [against Nashville].”

Boston may not be looking to accelerate DeBrusk’s recovery timeline at this stage of the regular season. But that doesn’t mean that the Bruins aren’t eagerly awaiting his return to the lineup.

The 2022-23 Bruins have withstood the sting of the injury bug numerous times this year.

Even without Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk in place in October, Boston’s D corps remained stout behind the contributions of Hampus Lindholm, Derek Forbort, Brandon Carlo, and others.

While Brad Marchand was on the mend from hip surgery, the B’s forward corps lit the lamp early and often this fall.

But since DeBrusk was felled at Fenway Park, Boston’s offense has stalled in multiple areas. Some of that is a result of DeBrusk’s propensity to hover around Grade-A ice, where tips, second-chance opportunities, and rebounds await.

But DeBrusk’s strengths also aid Boston in various other avenues that pave the way to quality O-zone looks.

“We’re missing [his] speed, his ability to track down pucks, whether it’s on the forecheck, but more importantly stripping guys from behind,” Montgomery said of DeBrusk. “Creating odd-man rush looks. That’s what we’ve missed from him. Whether it’s with the puck or without the puck, he creates more odd-man rushes for us.”

At first glance, Boston’s record reflects a team that has not been impeded by the absence of a top-six stalwart.

In the 15 games since DeBrusk landed on long-term injured reserve, the Bruins are 10-4-1. It’s a mark that most rosters would take. But given the record-setting pace the B’s are on this season, it does stand as a regression, especially when factoring in the team’s current 1-3-1 slide.

Following Boston’s triumph over Pittsburgh at the 2023 Winter Classic, the Bruins were averaging 3.73 goals per game. Since DeBrusk went down, that scoring output has dropped to 3.53 goals per game. Not a steep decline, but enough that a few more one-goal contests haven’t fallen in Boston’s favor over the last few weeks.

Even though DeBrusk isn’t the type of player who routinely peppers the net with shots, his “quality over quantity” approach has been missed for a Bruins team that has struggled to generate Grade-A chances during this slump.

Once on a 36-goal pace at the time of his injury, DeBrusk still ranks third on the Bruins with 10 5v5 goals this season, despite missing more than a month of action.

The charts above illustrate DeBrusk’s impact on the ice in terms of scoring chances. Without DeBrusk on the ice, Boston is still generating about 2.69 expected 5v5 goals per 60 minutes of action, a respectable total.

But in the 432 minutes of 5v5 action where DeBrusk has been out on a shift, Boston’s expected goals rate per 60 minutes jumps up to 3.16. And it should come as no surprise that Boston’s excess shots in and around the crease spike whenever DeBrusk is hovering around Grade-A ice.

Beyond his on-ice impact, DeBrusk’s return will also bring more equilibrium to Boston’s lineup.

Even though the current top-line configuration of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and Craig Smith has not been a net negative, DeBrusk represents a better fit as a straight-line forechecker and grinder down low.

By slotting DeBrusk back up on the top line, the Bruins have the luxury of pushing Smith down to the third line if needed, giving Montgomery more options to augment his bottom-six grouping. DeBrusk’s return at the netfront spot on the top power-play unit also represents a shot in the arm for a man advantage currently mired in an 0-for-17 rut.

DeBrusk may not boast the same credentials as once-injured B’s regulars like Marchand or McAvoy.

But the winger’s unique skillset offers a much-needed remedy for what is currently ailing Boston’s usually lethal offensive output.

“I’ve always been a guy that has prided myself on doing whatever I can to help the team and that’s kind of my mindset,” DeBrusk said. “It’s been the whole year— just wherever I can help, if they want to plug me in wherever, I’ll be ready to go wherever they want me. … Probably got to earn some things back, but at the same time, it’s one of those things that I just missed scoring goals. Excited to be back.”