Home sales in Mass. plummet
Can prices be far behind?
There were 4,877 sales of single-family homes in Massachusetts last month, 16.2% fewer than in September 2021, according a report The Warren Group released Tuesday.
The news for condo sales was even more stark: They’re down 22.9% year over year.
“The condo market has underperformed the single-family market in recent months, showing larger sales declines than single-family homes in every month this year,” said Tim Warren, CEO of the data analytics firm. “Single-family sales numbers took another hit in September as limited inventory, economic uncertainties, and rising interest rates continued to weigh heavily on prospective buyers.”
Fall is typically a slower season for home sales, but the stark differences year over year reflect a market trying to keep its footing as higher prices and higher mortgage rates have prospective buyers throwing up their hands in disgust.
And prices are still climbing, but more like runners hitting Heartbreak Hill than those fresh off the starting line in Hopkinton.
Here’s a look at median sale price increases over the past year and since 2020:
| home type | sEPT. 2020 | SEPT. 2021 | SEPT. 2022 | %CHANGE 2021-2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family | $474,000 | $510,000 | $550,000 | 7.8% |
| Condo | $417,000 | $460,000 | $495,000 | 7.6% |
“Last year there were only three months in which prices failed to increase by double digits,” Warren said. “This year, through September, the price increase has been in single digits for six months. The big question is whether we will see the median price decline in a future month.”
The news is a mixed bag for buyers still in the hunt. There’s less competition but fewer homes on the market. Home price gains are slowing, but they are still climbing paired with mortgage rate increases that are relegating more people to the sidelines.
“Average long-term U.S. mortgage rates reached their highest level in more than two decades last week and are likely to climb further as the Federal Reserve has all but promised more rate increases in its battle to tamp down persistent inflation,” the Associated Press reported. The average on the key 30-year rate climbed to 6.92% from 6.66%. Last year at this time, the rate was 3.05%.
In Suffolk County (home to Boston, Revere, Chelsea, and Winthrop), sales were down 26.3% for single-family homes and 18.8% for condos, with median sale prices of $733,000 and $650,000, respectively. Nantucket County led the way on price increases (49.1%), but to put that in perspective, sales were down 40%. View the county-by-county breakdown.
Looking at the town-by-town numbers, the year-over-year numbers for the Arlington single-family home market point to a downturn, but don’t be fooled. Sales were down 30.6% year over year, and the median sale price fell from $999,000 to $845,000 from September 2021 to September 2022. But year to date in 2022, prices are up 24.2% to a whopping $1,167,500.
In Brookline, condo sales were down by about half, and the median sale price is up 12.5% year over year ($842,500) and 8.2% year to date ($887,500). Across the Charles in Cambridge, the numbers offer false hope: Sales are down about 28 percent and the median sale price year over year slipped 3.5% ($786,513), but the median sale price this year is up 7.4% to $875,000.
Take a look at the town-by-town breakdown for single-family homes and condo units.
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