What would happen to Boston if all of the students suddenly left?
Experts say it wouldn’t end well.
Boston has a lot of schools. A lot of schools. So many that it’s almost impossible to imagine Boston without its massive one-in-10 student population.
One little city holding a huge population can lead to a whole host of issues, especially when a sizable segment of that population is 18- to 22-year-old newcomers and transplants: Certain areas are overtaken by dorm construction. There’s never enough space on the subway. Some bars become… a little more annoying.
But a less-crowded pub would not be without consequences. We spoke to two experts about what a student-less Boston would look like.
1. Real estate prices would go way down.
This sounds good, in theory, but could have serious holistic implications on Boston’s economy.
Students are “located in the prime areas in the city, mostly,’’ said Albert Saiz, professor of urban economics and real estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. If they were to suddenly up and leave student-laden neighborhoods like Allston and Mission Hill, “that might impact real estate prices.’’
While a drop in rent would be nice, Boston’s economy could take a hit in other ways. For instance: Local landlords would suffer.
“If you own property, and you’re renting, you’re going to have a significant deflation in terms of your assets [if students were to disappear],’’ said Bryan Snyder, a senior lecturer and expert in urban and regional economics at Bentley University.
Moreover, the consequences of rent going down would be marginally rewarding, considering the other consequences of a “student rapture.’’
“Rents would go down as a function of income, because other jobs would be leaving and collapsing,’’ Snyder continued. “Rents are always a function of income and profitability. The real estate is bid up [in Boston] because there’s money to be had.’’
2. Wages would drop.
Presently, Boston’s economy relies on education, Saiz said. Considering the amount of schools in town and the amount of educated people coming in and out who are involved in industries like information technology, biotechnology, the sciences, and finance, Boston is cranking out wicked smaht people hand over fist. Without this constant stream of educated citizens, the local economy would have to readjust.
“Cultures with lots of college students do tend to have highly educated populations,’’ said Saiz. “It may be because students tend to stay in the city or because they generate an environment where people are educated.’’
Boston’s colleges and universities contribute to the labor force threefold: First, these colleges produce smart, qualified workers, many of whom accept positions in the Boston area.
“You’ve got not just the colleges and the universities, but also almost all the hospitals and startups [that] have a connection to this,’’ Snyder said. “The amount of spillover between town, gown, and industry is substantial.’’
Second, students themselves participate in the job force, putting in hours at local businesses. On top of that, the money that students dump into the local economy allows Boston to have some of the highest average wages in the nation, a reality that would be drastically changed if the student population were lost.
“You’ve got this huge amount of money, and it allows for these above-average wages here,’’ Snyder said. With the loss of students, “across the board, people would be affected.’’
According to Saiz, many of the services we know and love compete based on low wages. If students were to disappear, “you’d probably have the highest skilled people leaving town. Middle and lower-income people would have decreases in their wages,’’ Saiz said.
Basically, without students, we’d have to change the economy base from education to something else. “Boston would be a more tourism-driven city,’’ according to Saiz.
“Unless whaling comes back, what else are we going to do?’’ Snyder asked. “If we do suddenly lose this very big thing that we have a critical mass of, what are we going to do?’’
3) Local education systems would suffer.
It’s more than just the obvious, though: Saiz believes that the college students in Boston impact the city’s high school and middle school students.
“In many school districts in Massachusetts, kids want to go to college. College here is very salient for them,’’ Saiz said, noting that this might be the reason for Massachusetts’s notoriously excellent public education system. “The students and the parents are actually demanding a way of service that will help them get to college.’’
When a younger Boston-based student encounters someone who is enrolled in the area’s 100-plus universities, they get an idea in their head of what it means to be a college student, driving them to aspire to something similar, if not the exact same thing.
“If you go to other places, there may not be [those] role models for them,’’ Saiz said. “They may not know what a college student looks like or never encounter a college student.’’
Having so many university students around could create a trickle-down effect.
“It’s creating a sense of emulation,’’ Saiz said.
4. Public transportation might fall apart.
“Students tend to use public transportation more than non-students,’’ Saiz said. “We’re still struggling with a transportation system that’s at a developing country-level. And students pay the fare.’’
“Most students ride the MBTA,’’ said Snyder, who noted that many recent grads use public transit, as well. Many recent grads work white-collar jobs, need to get to parts of town where those jobs are available, and they do so by taking the train. If there weren’t as many students matriculating nearby, this recent-grad population would drop, and that group of public transit patrons would disappear.
Losing that necessary funding could be devastating for the MBTA.
“Imagine a system that’s almost already collapsing, and it relies on students,’’ Saiz said. No more students “might be the coup de grace, the last sentence for the system.’’
It would, however, make the MBTA far less congested and improve traffic conditions city-wide, according to Saiz.
5. The socio-political climate would change.
Just ask any local grandpa born and bred in Boston: College kids around here are all hippies and brainwashed liberals. If they were to leave the state, they’d take their political inclinations with them, which would, in theory, change the overall social landscape of Boston.
“College students are very Democratic,’’ Saiz said. Without them, Massachusetts “would become more of a swing state.’’
In addition to being mostly Democratic, Boston’s students are notoriously artsy. In part, they fund small and specialized local businesses–vintage stores, specialty olive oil shops, your purveyors of quirk. These places “may not make ends meet without that,’’ said Saiz.
“Students have money and time to patronize these places,’’ Saiz continued. “They’re patronizing arts, cultures, theatre, movies, restaurants. Without that critical mass, some of them might have to close.’’
In short: Boston would be less fun.
The good news? The kids aren’t leaving anytime soon.
Unless students get fed up with a lack of certain crucial urban traits (think: safety from crime and Boston’s perceived prestige), it’s not likely they’ll leave, Saiz said. Not any time soon, at least.
Incidentally, the greatest threat to the sustainability of housing college students in this city is that they just keep on coming.
“We’re very concerned with how many students we can service here,’’ Saiz said.
There’s only so many ways in which Boston can continue to develop. Space is limited, and it’s only going to get more limited as students continue to enroll. In that sense, there is a threat that college kids will eventually diffuse into surrounding areas–or even different regions.
But for now, Saiz isn’t worried.
“I could see [it happening] in 20 or 30 years,’’ he said, “But that’s way down the line.’’
To comment, please create a screen name in your profile
To comment, please verify your email address
Conversation
This discussion has ended. Please join elsewhere on Boston.com