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What we still don’t know about the election: House control, popular vote
Republicans are defending one of the narrowest House majorities in decades, with Democrats needing to flip just four net seats to win control of the chamber.
Former president Donald Trump has won the race for the White House, capturing at least 292 electoral votes in a decisive victory against Vice President Kamala Harris. The Republican declared victory early Wednesday, calling his win “the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America.” Republicans were projected to win control of the Senate.
The day after Election Day, there are still outstanding questions. The fight for the House of Representatives continues, as votes are still being counted in key districts needed by Democrats as they seek to prevent Republicans from controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House.
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Here’s what to expect in the coming hours and the key races to watch.
Election news:
Trump tops 270, but some battleground states are still counting
Trump has won Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan – five of the seven swing states.
The majority of votes have been counted in every state, but it is still too soon to declare the winner in the other two swing states.
After Trump notched victories in four of the swing states on Tuesday night and into early Wednesday, Michigan went Trump’s way early Wednesday afternoon. Trump is projected to win Michigan’s 15 electoral college votes, according to the Associated Press.
Harris, meanwhile, was also declared the winner in Maine.
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Arizona: Trump is slightly favored to win its 11 electoral college votes, according to The Post’s forecast. More than 60 percent of votes have been counted. In Maricopa County, there are worries that an unusually long ballot could further slow a counting process that took 10 days in 2020.
Nevada: Trump is slightly favored to win its six electoral college votes, according to our forecast. More than 84 percent of the vote has been counted.
According to The Post’s analysis of polling data, most of the nation’s 3,000-plus counties swung to the right compared with 2020. The Republican shift appeared across rural border communities in Texas, the wealthy suburbs of Washington, D.C., and even reliably Democratic counties in New York City.
Control of the House may not be clear for days
Republicans are defending one of the narrowest House majorities in decades, with Democrats needing to flip just four net seats to win control of the chamber. Results in more than 30 key House districts that are considered competitive are still pending, with many districts especially in the West still counting votes. It may take hours if not days or weeks for it to be clear who won.
If Republicans succeed in defending their majority, the party will have control of both chambers of Congress for the next two-year cycle and will have a clearer path to pass its priorities with Trump in the White House. A Democratic-controlled House could make that harder.
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Democrats were targeting seats held by Republicans in districts that Joe Biden won in 2020, including a handful in California. Here are some of the key undeclared races to watch:
Virginia 2nd District: Democrats hoped to flip this seat, which is represented by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R), but the incumbent held off a challenge by Missy Cotter Smasal to win another term.
Virginia 7th District: Eugene Vindman, a Democrat who played a role in Trump’s first impeachment, defeated Republican Derrick Anderson.
Pennsylvania 7th District: Republican Ryan Mackenzie has a slight lead in his bid to unseat Rep. Susan Wild (D). Wild conceded Wednesday morning, though the race had not been called.
Pennsylvania 8th District: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) is the only House Democrat to have won four times in a district Trump won in the previous two presidential elections. As things stand, Cartwright conceded Wednesday afternoon to Republican Robert Bresnahan in this Scranton-area district, but the Associated Press has yet to call the race.
New York 4th District: Laura Gillen (D) is leading in this competitive rematch in a Long Island-based district, where she hopes to unseat Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R).
California 45th District: Biden won this Orange County district by six points in 2020. Rep. Michelle Steel (R) is leading against Democratic challenger Derek Tran.
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California 47th District: Democrats were favored in this open seat to replace Rep. Katie Porter (D), who unsuccessfully ran for Senate. However, Republican Scott Baugh is narrowly ahead.
Texas 34th District: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) won this rematch against former congresswoman Mayra Flores (R).
Republicans’ Senate majority is still unclear
While Republicans have won enough Senate seats to secure a majority in the 100-person chamber, there are still some outstanding races that will determine the margins.
Republicans were already at an advantage, as they needed only two net wins to secure a majority, and more Democratic incumbents were facing elections in swing or red states. Of the 10 key Senate races held this year, a number have yet to be called:
Arizona: More than 60 percent of the votes are estimated to have been counted, with Ruben Gallego (D) leading Kari Lake (R) in the race to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I).
Michigan: Elissa Slotkin (D) has defeated Mike Rogers (R). The seat was vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).
Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) faces Sam Brown (R) in a very tight race in the swing state. Eighty-four percent of votes have been counted, according to our estimate.
Pennsylvania: The race between Sen. Bob Casey (D), who is seeking his fourth term in the swing state, and businessman Dave McCormick (R) is still close. With more than 97 percent of votes counted, McCormick was ahead by more than 51,000 votes Wednesday morning. A spokesperson for Casey said his campaign still believed that the senator would win, saying there are “more votes that need to be counted in areas like Philadelphia.”
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Wisconsin: By Wednesday afternoon, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) was projected to win over businessman Eric Hovde (R).
The presidential popular vote winner is still unknown
In a speech early Wednesday, Trump claimed a victory in the popular vote, which he did not secure in 2016 despite winning the electoral college. “Winning the popular vote was very nice. Very nice. I will tell you, it’s a great, a great feeling of love,” he said.
However, it’s still unclear who came out ahead, as votes are still being counted. Trump is on pace to win the national popular vote, The Post has reported, though that will depend on Harris’s final margin in California.
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