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The 2024 presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump may be a statistical toss-up, but election forecasters have seemed to reach one consensus: seven key swing states will decide the outcome.
Yes, all eyes will be on Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on election night — and possibly the following days as well — as votes are tallied and states are called.
Follow live 2024 Arizona presidential election results below.
9 p.m. ET
Arizona does not release votes until all precincts have reported or one hour after all polls are closed, whichever is first, usually 10 p.m. ET.
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In Arizona, ballots cast and processed before Election Day are the first to be reported after polls close. These ballots have tended to favor Democrats, ever since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election. In the 2022 U.S. Senate election, Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly began the night with a nearly 20 point lead over Republican Blake Masters, but that narrowed to about a 5 point win by the time the results were certified.
Mail ballots that are delivered on Election Day take much longer to tabulate because election workers do not begin processing or verifying them until after polls close. In Maricopa County, which has the state’s largest population, about 20% of the nearly 1.6 million votes cast in 2022 were mail ballots dropped off on Election Day.
Maricopa County is by far the most influential of the state’s 15 counties in statewide elections. It is home to Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe, and Mesa and contributed nearly 62% of the vote in the 2020 presidential race. Pima County was a distant second with about 15% of the vote.
In statewide elections going back a dozen years, Democrats have always carried four counties in both winning and losing campaigns: Apache, Coconino, Pima, and Santa Cruz. In each of those races, the candidate who carried Maricopa won statewide. Maricopa is also one of only 10 counties across the seven battleground states that flipped from Trump to Biden.
The Associated Press doesn’t make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race hasn’t been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, like candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear it hasn’t declared a winner and explain why.
In Arizona, recounts are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that’s eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Biden (D) 49.4%, Trump (R) 49.1%
AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 2:51 a.m. ET.
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.
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